Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
329 FXUS64 KAMA 160544 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across mainly the northern Panhandles tonight and again tomorrow afternoon- evening. Some could be strong to severe with damaging winds being the primary hazard. - Near to above average temperatures are expected to return Friday through at least Tuesday. Triple digit heat will be possible across the eastern combined Panhandles, Palo Duro Canyon, and portions of the Canadian River Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 We`ll be watching a weak cold front to our north this evening for the potential to generate some storms across mainly the northern Panhandles, some of which could be strong/marginally severe. Latest satellite & mesoanalysis observations show the Panhandles situated between high pressure systems over the Four Corners and the SE CONUS, with a deep trough to our north. The aforementioned front will sag south through the afternoon hours, eventually reaching our northern counties with a cooler and quite moist environment in its wake. This area of enhanced low-level convergence combined with an H500 vort max should have no problem taking advantage of PWATs > 1.5" and MUCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. As mentioned in previous discussions, shear is modest at best so severe storms aren`t favored, but DCAPE values could very well be conducive enough to support severe wind gusts with these storms. CAMs differ slightly on convective evolution overnight, but are starting to hint at scattered additional development as the front gradually propagates southward. This activity may not be long-lived, but could warrant increasing precipitation chances further south between midnight - 7 AM. Currently, the northern Panhandles have 50-80% POPs whereas the central and southern TX Panhandle has 15-50% probabilities. Depending on where the front stalls its progression Thursday (if it does in fact stall) , another round of scattered storms could be in the cards for portions of the region once again. This is especially true for the northern Panhandles, where closer proximity to another shortwave disturbance will maximize convective potential. But CAMs hint we could have more development for the TX Panhandle this time around. The overall environment will be comparable to today`s, meaning that strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out, but aren`t likely. Multiple rounds of storms training over the same areas in a moisture rich environment over the next couple of nights does give some reason for concern towards localized flooding potential, especially across the OK Panhandle where there are 20-60% probabilities for rainfall totals to exceed 1". Thankfully, storms are expected to be moving at a decent enough clip, but these efficient rain producers may have very heavy rainfall rates if everything materializes just right. We will need to monitor trends closely if some hi-res guidance persist in predicting some of these locally higher rainfall totals of 1-3+". For now, the overall risk of flooding from excessive rainfall is relatively low. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The heat is being turned back on to end this week and kick off the next, thanks to a more pronounced dome of high pressure finally building atop the region. While most of the western to central portions of the Panhandles receive near average highs in the mid to upper 90s Fri-Sat, The SE Texas Panhandle is favored for hotter temperatures, seeing medium (40-70%) probabilities to reach 100 degrees. These probabilities spread across the combined eastern and even some of the central Panhandles Sun-Tue, with some global deterministic models climbing as high as 105 in spots (e.g. eastern Panhandles, Palo Duro Canyon, Canadian River Valley). Chances to reach this higher end of heat potential are low (only 10-40%), but are worth keeping an eye on moving forward. Drier trends are expected to win out, but the occasional sporadic summer thunderstorm can`t be ruled out any given day throughout the long term period. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are favored at all sites for a majority of the period, with winds out of the south at 10-15 kts. Storm chances will increase near KDHT and KGUY towards the end of the period, so have included PROB30 groups around/after 00z. Winds will shift more northerly at these sites as well when a weak front moves through. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38