Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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276
FXUS64 KBMX 150600
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025

 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across central Alabama
   today and Wednesday. To avoid heat-related illness, heat
   safety should be exercised for people and pets.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast today as a 500mb
ridge axis continues to have some influence across the area;
however, the interaction cyclonic flow associated with a
westward-moving tropical low in the vicinity of north Florida and
anticyclonic flow from an upstream surface ridge will result in a
band of convergence from Appalachia to the Florida Panhandle. The
result will be a corridor of relatively higher shower and
thunderstorm coverage along and near the convergence axis. The
latest cycle of CAMs are in agreement that this activity,
featuring a west-southwestward movement, will affect parts of
east Alabama from mid-late afternoon into evening. A moderate to
major heat risk is forecast today due to the extent of hot and
humid conditions.

On Wednesday, a narrow 500mb ridge axis remains wedged overhead,
between the tropical low skirting across the northern Gulf and
troughing across the northern U.S. In turn, there should be a north-
south gradient in shower and thunderstorm activity, numerous along
the immediate Gulf coast and isolated to scattered for most of
central Alabama. A moderate to major heat risk is forecast due to
the extent of hot and humid conditions.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025

A surge of rich, tropical moisture is forecast to become more
pronounced on Thursday and persist into the weekend. This should
result in a greater coverage of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025

VFR conditions dominate the TAF period. The one aside will be the
potential for a west-southwest-moving band of scattered showers
and thunderstorms to reach ASN and/or MGM sometime during the mid-
late afternoon into evening. For those two terminals a PROB30
TSRA is mentioned.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns over the coming days. 20-foot
winds will average less than 10 mph each day. The coverage of
showers and thunderstorms should increase later this week,
compared to early this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  72  95  72 /  20  10  30  20
Anniston    94  74  92  74 /  20  20  40  20
Birmingham  96  75  95  74 /  20  10  30  20
Tuscaloosa  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  20  20
Calera      94  75  93  74 /  10  10  30  20
Auburn      94  74  91  74 /  30  40  50  20
Montgomery  96  75  94  74 /  20  30  50  20
Troy        96  73  92  72 /  20  40  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite