Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
276 FXUS64 KBMX 150600 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 100 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 - There is a moderate to major heat risk across central Alabama today and Wednesday. To avoid heat-related illness, heat safety should be exercised for people and pets. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast today as a 500mb ridge axis continues to have some influence across the area; however, the interaction cyclonic flow associated with a westward-moving tropical low in the vicinity of north Florida and anticyclonic flow from an upstream surface ridge will result in a band of convergence from Appalachia to the Florida Panhandle. The result will be a corridor of relatively higher shower and thunderstorm coverage along and near the convergence axis. The latest cycle of CAMs are in agreement that this activity, featuring a west-southwestward movement, will affect parts of east Alabama from mid-late afternoon into evening. A moderate to major heat risk is forecast today due to the extent of hot and humid conditions. On Wednesday, a narrow 500mb ridge axis remains wedged overhead, between the tropical low skirting across the northern Gulf and troughing across the northern U.S. In turn, there should be a north- south gradient in shower and thunderstorm activity, numerous along the immediate Gulf coast and isolated to scattered for most of central Alabama. A moderate to major heat risk is forecast due to the extent of hot and humid conditions. 89^GSatterwhite && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 A surge of rich, tropical moisture is forecast to become more pronounced on Thursday and persist into the weekend. This should result in a greater coverage of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025 VFR conditions dominate the TAF period. The one aside will be the potential for a west-southwest-moving band of scattered showers and thunderstorms to reach ASN and/or MGM sometime during the mid- late afternoon into evening. For those two terminals a PROB30 TSRA is mentioned. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no fire weather concerns over the coming days. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph each day. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase later this week, compared to early this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 95 72 95 72 / 20 10 30 20 Anniston 94 74 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 Birmingham 96 75 95 74 / 20 10 30 20 Tuscaloosa 96 75 96 76 / 10 10 20 20 Calera 94 75 93 74 / 10 10 30 20 Auburn 94 74 91 74 / 30 40 50 20 Montgomery 96 75 94 74 / 20 30 50 20 Troy 96 73 92 72 / 20 40 60 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite