Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 200605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to the area
tonight. On the northern edge of the precipitation a wintry mix
is possible. As the low moves into the Appalachians, the
precipitation will pull in colder area bringing accumulating
snow to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Band of rain has pivoted into the southern part of the forecast
area. So far this has been mainly moistening the very dry low
levels, although there has been some very light accumulations.
The band will continue to shift east northeast as low pressure
passes just south of the area. Temperatures will fall to or
just below freezing along the northwest edge of the rain band.
This will result in some ice accumulations. But after a very
warm day, road temperatures are forecast to stay above freezing.
This appears to be similar to what happened last Saturday
morning with minimal travel impacts. So have continued with an


The surface low tracks in the Appalachians on Tuesday. The
deformation band of pcpn, lingers in the north Tuesday morning,
before it starts pivoting to the northeast. Across the southern
part of the area, the pcpn will be more scattered in nature
during the morning hours. The pcpn will transition to rain
during the day.

Late Tuesday afternoon into early evening a reinforcing shot of
cold air will begin to push southeast out of Canada in the form
of another shortwave. As this happens rain will start to mix
with snow in the northwest, then the rain/snow line drops
southeast through the region.

Snowfall amounts could be a couple of inches around the I-71
corridor by the end of the period, with a little less across the
rest of the fa. Will issue a WW Advisory to cover the snow


Snow will be ongoing at the start of the long term on Wednesday with
the surface low situated just southeast of the area.  Some
additional snowfall accumulations will be likely on Wednesday during
the day, however some accumulations may be offset during the daytime
hours due to the time of the year.

Snow will begin to taper off through the day as the area of low
pressure moves away from the area.  With cloud cover and snow,
continued the trend of going cooler and below guidance for high
temperatures on Wednesday. In addition winds will continue to gust
with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible.

Additional snow showers will be possible during the overnight hours
Wednesday night across southwestern portions of the region as an
upper level disturbance works down into that area.  Due to some
uncertainty with the placement of this disturbance decided to limit
precipitation chances to a slight chance at this time.

High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday and
Friday.  The next system will then work into the region for the
weekend bringing a mix of rain snow to the area.

There are some model discrepancies on when precipitation will begin
to move into the region with the Monday into Monday night system,
however expect most of the precipitation to hold off until Monday


Mid level low pressure currently centered over southern Indiana
will continue to push east across the upper Ohio Valley through
this morning. This will allow for precipitation currently
rotating up across our area to continue to work its way east
through the morning hours. The northern edge of the pcpn shield
has had a tough time working north into the drier airmass but
it should continue to make a slow northward progression as we go
through the morning. As a result, will go ahead and bring the
precipitation into KDAY/KLCK/KCMH over the next couple of
hours. Surface temperatures will be near or just below freezing
across the north so this could lead to a period of -fzra at the
northern TAF sites through mid morning. Cigs are currently
running VFR but they should drop into MVFR as the low levels
continue to moisten up through the early morning hours.

We may get into a brief lull later this morning into early
afternoon as the initial low moves east. However, another low
will move quickly in from the west later this afternoon into
tonight. This will allow for precipitation to redevelop later
this afternoon and then continue through tonight. Initially
precipitation will start off as rain but as we begin to cool
off, it will mix with and then chance over to all snow late this
afternoon into this evening. This will lead to the possibility
of some IFR visibility restrictions through the later portion of
the TAF period with MVFR cigs prevailing.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue
into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible again
on Saturday.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.


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