652
FXUS62 KMFL 161100
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
700 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A weakening frontal boundary associated with a mid-level trough over the
Eastern US will slowly push southward over South Florida today,
leading to a slight wind shift to a westerly direction over most
of the region, and possibly WNW for northern portions of the CWA.
This westerly flow will become brisk in the low to mid levels and
breezy at the surface, likely limiting the infiltration of an east
coast sea breeze. While the overall pattern will involve weak
forcing, there will be sufficient moisture, surface heating, and
cooler temps aloft (-8 to -9 deg C at 500mb) to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Some storms
could become strong to severe, primarily across the Lake
Okeechobee region and northern areas of the east coast metro,
where forcing will be strongest and temps aloft will be coolest.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed these areas in a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms, with the primary hazards being
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

On Friday, a shortwave mid-level ridge will shift across the eastern Gulf and
build over the Florida Peninsula, while the remnant and diffuse
frontal boundary retracts back north a bit. This setup will result
in an overall drier day due to a more stable airmass, but a few
showers and even a thunderstorm or two will remain possible along
sea breeze boundary collisions with remnant low-level moisture in
place.

Temperatures will continue to be a concern both today and Friday, with
high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s along the Gulf
Coast, and mid to even upper 90s over the interior and east coast.
Elevated dew points will drive peak heat indices into the triple
digits, and could rise as high as 104-108 degrees for a short
duration across most of South Florida. This could necessitate a
Heat Advisory at some point, but at this time the highest indices
are not expected to be of long enough duration (2 or more hours),
and cloud cover from convection should help limit this as well,
but this will be monitored. Overall, whether an advisory is issued
or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended
time outside or to take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if
required to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The main story through the weekend will be the potential for hazardous
heat as a hot and humid airmass remains over the area with south-
southwest low-level flow and troughing off to the north. Most of
South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat
Advisory on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. High
temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each
afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas
with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching
the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the
east coast metro could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even
portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
With the moist airmass in place, there will also be a threat for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over
the northern half of the area.

By late in the weekend into early next week, the mid-level troughing over
the Southeast US will begin to dip further south and stall out in
the area, finally sending a front through South Florida. Ahead of
and along the front, there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with some strong storms possible. After the front
clears the area, a slightly cooler airmass will settle in through
mid-week and provide relief from the recent stretch of heat, with
high temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s across the
area, and low temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a chance of reduced flight categories in scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning over all terminals.
The risk of storms will decrease for most terminals by late morning,
but another round of thunderstorms will be possible later this
afternoon particularly at KPBI. Winds will generally favor a W-SW
direction today before becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the next few days with light to
moderate west-southwest flow gradually turning southerly by this weekend.
There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create
locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf coast
today with onshore flow. Along the Atlantic, rip current risks
will be low over the next several days with generally light,
offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            95  78  93  80 /  50  10  30   0
West Kendall     95  75  95  77 /  30  10  20   0
Opa-Locka        95  78  95  80 /  50  10  30   0
Homestead        95  76  93  80 /  30  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  94  78  91  80 /  60  10  20   0
N Ft Lauderdale  94  78  93  80 /  60  10  20   0
Pembroke Pines   96  78  96  80 /  60  10  30   0
West Palm Beach  92  75  92  77 /  80  30  20   0
Boca Raton       94  76  93  78 /  60  20  20   0
Naples           90  78  91  79 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Redman