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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251931
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Some convection continues across far NE OK this afternoon
along and just north of a surface warm front. As this feature
continues to lift north, the area should be mostly convection
free until later tonight. Additional storms are expected to
develop within a low level jet axis that sets up to the west
late this evening. An area of storm will spread east into NE OK
after 09z. Large hail and straight line winds will be the primary
severe threats but an isolated tornado threat will exist given
the favorable shear that will be in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Convection will be ongoing Friday morning, however the severe
threat will lessen through the morning as the low level jet
subsides. Storms may linger across far NW AR into the afternoon,
so will keep high PoPs in those areas after 18z. Isolated
to scattered storms that can develop back further to the west
during the afternoon will have severe potential as the airmass in
this area becomes unstable once more. Greatest severe potential
will be Saturday as afternoon storms develop along a surface
dryline to the west. Storms will move east and enter eastern
Oklahoma during the late evening hours. Storm strength will be
maintained by a developing low level jet, along with favorable
diffluence aloft. All modes of severe will be possible before the
severe threat transitions to a more heavy rainfall/ flash flooding
threat. Deep layer moisture over the area along with low level
flow paralleling the mean flow will support training convection
by late Saturday evening and during the overnight hours across NE
OK, and will enhance the flooding threat. The upper trough axis
will lift through the area on Sunday, with the focus for
convection and some severe weather setting up across SE OK and NW
AR later in the day Sunday. The first part of the week should
remain relatively dry, with increasing storm chances by mid week
and another frontal boundary moves into the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR conditions will linger into the early afternoon across far
northeast OK and northwest AR as showers and a few thunderstorms
persist along and north of a warm front. Expectation remains that
MVFR ceilings return this evening to remainder of the area, with
potentially strong LLWS developing. Consensus is for a strong
squall line to develop in northwest TX late this evening and
arrive in eastern OK sometime around 10-12z. This complex will
likely weaken to some degree with eastward progression, however
strong wind gusts remain possible into eastern OK sites early
Friday morning. IFR conditions likely with the passage of storms,
and MVFR should prevail through Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  82  67  81 /  90  70  10  70
FSM   62  78  67  84 /  70  90  60  50
MLC   67  79  68  82 /  80  80  30  70
BVO   60  82  63  81 /  90  70  10  70
FYV   58  75  63  81 /  70  90  60  50
BYV   56  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  50
MKO   62  77  65  81 /  90  80  20  60
MIO   59  77  65  81 /  90  90  20  50
F10   65  80  67  80 /  90  70  10  70
HHW   66  75  66  80 /  60  80  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14