Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261927
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
327 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area briefly tonight bringing
dry and cool weather. Two areas of low pressure, one over the
Great Lakes, and the other moving up the east coast, with bring
showers to the area Friday and for much of the weekend. Dry
weather will return on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging surface and aloft tonight is bringing and end to the
showers over the north country this afternoon. Overnight,
clearing skies and dry weather is expected.

On Friday, short wave develops a surface low over the Delmarva
that taps Atlantic moisture. This system will spread showers
over southeast half of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a low
digging into the great lakes will develop showers over the
western half of the area, mainly light showers over the western
half of the forecast area. Cold front follows the lows Friday
night bringing much cooler air for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM update...

A wet weekend with snow possible, hopefully one last time, Saturday
night to Sunday night. Good news the snow will be light and have a
hard time sticking with the warmer ground. Total snow amounts under
an inch and mostly across the higher terrain of CNY.

Saturday morning starts out with a slow moving southwest to
northeast front across the area ahead of a deep upper level trough
over the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The model trend with
the trough has been colder, slower, and deeper. The trough is over
the area Sunday and doesn`t exit until Monday. This will make our
area colder Saturday night to Sunday night. Saturday high
temperatures will be tricky depending on where the front is and how
much rain is occurring. Right now the front is expected to be
entering the Finger Lakes first thing in the morning but not exit
the Catskills and Poconos until late afternoon. Rainfall will be
best with the front midday and afternoon.  Highs mostly upper 50s
and lower 60s but could hit 70 middle Delaware Valley next to NJ.
Lows in the 30s both nights with highs only in the 40s Sunday.  Rain
showers Saturday changing to a mix Saturday overnight then
continuing into Sunday night. Sunday afternoon mostly rain but air
aloft plenty cold enough for snow. 850mb temperatures around -6C but
saturated layer on NAM below dendrite zone. GFS has more moisture to
the 10k dendrite layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM update...

Not too much change. Used a blend of superblend and WPC. Hopefully
the snow will have moved out of the far east early Monday morning.
If the models slow down the upper level trough further. Upper level
heights build Monday into Tuesday as the trough moves well east and
a strong ridge is over the area Tuesday night. Large high pressure
over the southeast US will pump warm air into the area. Highs in the
50s Monday rise to the 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows start out
around 40 Monday night then rise into the 50s Wednesday night. A
strong cold front slowly sags southeast with rain showers starting
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level low spinning moisture into the area and providing
instability. Result is MVFR ceilings over parts of the area.
Somewhat drier air slowly arrives and with the loss of heating,
conditions will gradually improve this afternoon to MVFR in all
locations. VFR conditions continue overnight. On Friday, wave
moving up the east coast will spread moisture back into area
with lowered ceilings and visibilities in showers at times, into
the MVFR range.

Outlook...

Late Friday through Sunday...Restrictions possible from showers
at times, moderate to low confidence in timing and placement.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM


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