491
FXUS61 KBGM 100124
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
924 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air moving in aloft will lead to cooler weather tomorrow
through the weekend as well as frequent chances of showers. Next
week will see a gradual warm up but chances of precipitation
will remain frequent.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM Update...

The hourly temperatures and dew points were touched up based on
the latest observations. Winds were also needed some minor
changes as many locations have dropped to zero for wspd. Winds
will remain calm tonight. Showers continue to spread eastward,
though are limited to the Southern Tier and areas southward.
PoPs needed little to no adjustments during this update.
However, sky cover was increased now that mid to high level
clouds blanket the region. With guidance favoring overcast skies
throughout the night, sky cover was bumped up to near 100% for
the majority of the overnight hours.

630 PM Update...

Overall, the forecast is doing well so far, so only some minor
changes were needed to the forecast with this update. Radar is
showing showing some showers moving in. It has some dry air to
overcome so it is mostly virga, but a few spots were reporting
rain in NEPA. Slight adjustments were made to PoPs over the next
few hours to reflect current activity and newer guidance.

300 PM Update...

A long wave trough is slowly digging into the region with cold
air advection aloft keeping temperatures on the cooler side this
afternoon compared to recent days. Temperatures were adjusted
up slightly across CNY as there has been some good sunshine
between the clouds but decided to lower temperatures along and
south of the NY/PA border as cirrus and low clouds have really
limited solar heating. Tonight, rain will be moving in from SW
to NE as a surface low slides through the mid Atlantic with an
inverted trough setting up over us with broad lift. Rain will be
steady but light and last through most of the day tomorrow with
QPF amounts ranging from near an inch in the higher elevations
of NEPA to around a 10th of an inch in the Mohawk valley. Friday
night was a little tricky in regards to the low temperature
forecast. A surface high is building in but with the upper level
trough axis basically directly overhead, there will be steeper
lapse rates and decent amount of low level moisture. Forecast
soundings are not quite saturated so there is a chance for some
clearing with light winds and with the cold air aloft already,
radiational cooling could cause temperatures to fall into the
30s if clouds clear overnight. Luckily the dew points will be
pretty high so it will be hard to get any frost and if there is
a frost it wont be damaging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

A shortwave trough moves over the region Saturday, bringing
colder air and showery conditions for the weekend. This
shortwave trough quickly passes eastward, allowing short-lived
ridging over the area Sunday evening into early Monday morning,
where a small break from the showery conditions are likely.
Chances for afternoon thunderstorms are possible, mainly for
areas west of I-81, on Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures
in the high-50s/low-60s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
255 PM Update...

Another shortwave moving over the Great Lakes will bring back
the rain showers for Monday. A weak warm front sets a boundary
across our area, increasing chances for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the entire forecast area Monday. Monday
through Tuesday, as of now, seems like the most likely day for
thunder through the entire period, but severe storms are not
likely. Monday will be about 10 degrees warmer as the extension
of a weak warm front pushes into the area, with high
temperatures increasing into the high-60s/low-70s.

A disorganized system will supply deep southwesterly flow into
our region, continuing the showery conditions for Wednesday and
Thursday while increasing temperatures in the low- to mid-70s
through the midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions remain across the region as rain showers begin to
slide in from the west. Dry air remains at the surface so a lot
of the radar returns are not making it to the surface. This will
however moisten up the low levels, allowing rain fall to begin
to reach the surface in a couple of hours across NEPA, and after
04z across CNY. Deeper moisture and rain showers move in after
06z, allowing conditions to fall to MVFR for AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH.
MVFR conditions are expected to hold on through the TAF period
across much of the area as rain showers will continue across
the region. BGM may see some IFR ceilings during the morning
hours, but the rest of the terminals are expected to remain
MVFR/Fuel Alt thanks to wind directions causing downsloping at
ELM/AVP/ITH.

SYR and RME should see rain showers much later tonight as dry
air holds on and the high moisture air takes its time making its
way north. VFR conditions are expected through the overnight
hours, with MVFR ceilings arriving after sunrise thanks to winds
shifting enough to reduce in the impact of downsloping off the
nearby higher elevations. MVFR is expected to remain through the
rest of the TAF period.




Cigs are scattering out this afternoon with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals through 0Z tonight. Rain does begin to
move in from the SW and initially there will be enough dry air
to keep conditions VFR through about 6Z. Deeper moisture and
consistent rain moves in after 6Z for ELM, BGM, and AVP with
cigs falling to near IFR. Given the forecast soundings not
completely saturating the lowest 1000 feet decided to only have
BGM fall to IFR cigs due to elevation of terminal. Drier air
north will slow the rains arrival at ITH, SYR and RME. The SE
winds will also help with downsloping at ITH and SYR so IFR is
unlikely and it may be hard to even get MVFR cigs and vis at SYR
but left it in for now.

Outlook...

Friday...Rain and restrictions likely Friday.

Friday night through Monday...Periods of showers with
intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC