Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 272341
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary draped across central New York into southern New
England will lift north as a warm front on Monday. A few showers are
possible along this boundary this evening over northern New York
into parts of central and southern Vermont. Addition widely
scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder are possible on
Monday afternoon into the overnight hours with temperatures warming
into the 70s. High pressure with above normal temperatures and dry
conditions will dominate our weather for midweek, before more
showers arrive by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Shower activity is diminishing with
a few breaks in the clouds, which should allow temperatures to
remain steady for the next few hours. Southern portions of our
area could see a few showers moving through central New York
state later this evening. Have lowered precipitation chances
for the most part to capture these trends. Will keep an eye on
potential fog development. Compared to yesterday, dewpoint
depressions are higher in Vermont, but are low across portions
of the Adirondacks. It will once again be a race against a
forecast increase in winds and mixing. Forecast soundings appear
more favorable for stratus at this time in the Adirondacks.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Water vapors shows active pattern across the eastern conus with
mid level moisture and associated waa lift moving across the
mid Atlantic/Southern New England, while additional short wave
energy is located upstream over the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, our
northeast zones continue to be under the influence of nw flow
and dry air from 1026mb high pres over central Maine. This makes
for a tricky pop/wind and temp fcst overnight, with some
clearing and lighter winds over eastern sections, which will
allow temps to drop back into the mid 40s. Meanwhile...southeast
flow around high pres, combined with waa lift/moisture lifting
across central/southern vt will result in clouds and areas of
light rain...with temps mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Weak instability driven showers/isolated thunder will quickly
dissipate this evening with the loss of heating over northern ny
with temps dropping back into the 50s. Developing 20 to 30 knot
low level jet should limit fog/br development, maybe a few
patchy areas where rain occurred this aftn in the
deeper/protected valleys of the dacks and central/southern VT.

Monday into Monday Night the forecast challenge will be chances for
additional showers and embedded thunderstorms. Bottom line not
anticipating a washout, but a few scattered showers will be
expected, along with a some rumbles of thunder. Synoptic scale setup
shows warm front boundary moving north across our cwa, with
developing south/southwest winds, helping to warm temps back into
the 70s. This surface heating with dew points in the 50s will
create an axis of sfc based cape of 800 to 1200 j/kg with the
best instability over northern NY. Meanwhile...s/w energy aloft
is limited and mid level moisture is minimal, which will
minimize the areal coverage/intensity of activity on Monday. The
highest chc pops will be across the northern Dacks into
northern VT mainly after 16z. Additional s/w energy and better
mid level moisture tracks just north of our cwa btwn 03z-06z
Tuesday, but instability is waning with the loss of heating.
Have chc pops in grids with slight chance of thunder mainly
near the international border where surface convergence along
cold front is the best too. Monday is best described as some
instability, limited moisture, weak forcing, resulting in widely
scattered showers with isolated threat for a few storms. Did
notice some DCAPE values of 400 to 600 j/kg suggesting the
potential for some gusty winds in the stronger convective
elements. Temps mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s on Monday
Night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Sunday...Mid/upper level trof over northern
Maine will create a dry northwest flow aloft across our cwa on
Tues. This combined with 1025mb high pres building into our
region from central Canada will produce mainly sunny skies with
some fair weather cumulus clouds and seasonable temps. Highs
mainly in the mid 60s mountains to mid/upper 70s warmer valleys
on Tuesday with lows in the upper 30s to near 50f. A beautiful
period of weather is anticipated with low rh values and mild
days and cool nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 234 PM EDT Sunday...A warm, summerlike pattern remains in
the forecast for the mid to late week time frame. We`ll start
off the period with deep layer ridging sprawled across the
northeast during Wednesday into Thursday with fair, warm and dry
weather expected. Model averaged 925 mb temperatures in the
18-21Z time frame run from 17-21C both days supporting highs
well into the 80s and overnight lows mainly in the 55 to 65
range. By Friday and Saturday the high will lose amplitude as it
shifts east and south over time allowing southwesterly flow and
moisture from the southern U.S. and an approaching northern
stream shortwave trough to advect into the region. Resultant
dewpoints will increase along with an increasing threat of
showers and possible storms as PWATS climb to in excess of 1.5
inches. Friday will remain quite warm (upper 70s to mid 80s)
before slight cooling begins on Saturday owing to greater cloud
cover and the potential passage of a back door cold front.

By next Sunday some differences arise in the global solutions in
regard to this front dropping south/southwest through the region as
high pressure bridges atop eastern Canada. This morning`s GFS is
considerably more robust with the southward push of this feature
with consensus showing a weaker/slower arrival. For now will
maintain lower end chance pops until we can get a better handle on
the eventual players in this setup. What seems more plausible is a
higher coverage of clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures for no
other reason than less overall sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through
much of the period. There will be some showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms moving across the area...especially between
16z and 22z where some MVFR conditions could occur. For now have
mentioned vicinity showers during this time period as a weak
trough of low pressure moves into the region. Winds will
generally be 10 knots or less through the period and will mainly
be from the south and southwest on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Evenson/Taber


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