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347
FXUS62 KGSP 111117
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
617 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure remains over the forecast area today. The air
mass will gradually modify, as temperatures rebound Wednesday and
beyond, with much warmer and drier conditions expected the rest
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 600 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Northwest Flow Snow Showers Diminish Early this Morning

2) Slippery Road Conditions Expected, Especially Across Areas that
Received Accumulating Snowfall

3) Freeze Warning Remains in Effect through 9 AM EST for Most
Locations East of the Mountains

4) Well Below Normal Temps and Intermittent Gusty Winds Stick Around

The bulk of northwest flow snow activity has subsided this morning.
Although some areas of light snow flurries will persist through
daybreak, no additional accumulations are expected. Opted to cancel
the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories early.

With temps ranging from the teens to low 20s across the NC mountains
this morning, any locations that received accumulating snowfall will
see slippery roads conditions for the morning commute. See the SPS
for more details. With the growing season still active for most
locations east of the mountains, a Freeze Warning remains in effect
through 9AM EST as morning temps are ranging from the mid to upper
20s. Stratocu continues to diminish in coverage across the mountains
this morning , with clear skies expected to return just after
sunrise. Clear skies are already in place elsewhere. Lingering gusty
winds are leading to single digit to sub-zero chills this morning
across the higher elevations of the NC mountains. The rest of the
forecast area is seeing wind chills from the teens to mid 20s this
morning.

Dry and gusty conditions are expected for the remainder of the near
term, with some occasional cirrus passing overhead at times. Winds
will be lighter compared to the last few days and will be well below
advisory criteria. Wind direction starts out W/NW this morning
before turning WSW/SW east of the mountains this afternoon into this
evening. Dewpoints will remain in the teens, allowing min RHs to
fall near or below 30% today across much of the CWA. Low RHs and
gusty winds will lead to low-end fire wx concerns outside of areas
that received accumulating snowfall. Highs this afternoon will be
several degrees warmer across the mountains and a few degrees warmer
east of the mountains, but will still end up ~15 degrees below
normal. Most locations above 3,500 ft will remain below freezing
this afternoon, limiting snowmelt. Meanwhile, lower elevations
across the NC mountains will see temps rise above freezing this
afternoon which will allow the snow to melt, especially for areas
that received light accums. With temps across the NC mountains
expected to fall below freezing again tonight, any lingering
moisture from snowmelt may allow black ice to develop, which would
impact the commute this evening and again Wednesday morning.
However, this will be highly dependent on how much snow is able to
melt. Additional special weather statements may be needed to
account for icy road conditions tonight into Wednesday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 AM EST Tuesday: Upper flow will flatten out, with
ridge building over the Southern Plains and Rockies, while a
trough lifts northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. The center of
arctic high pressure will settle over the Deep South and quickly
modify Wednesday and Thursday, as low-level flow picks up out of
the W to SW. A weak, dry cold front will drop south into the area
Wednesday night, with little more than a wind shift from SW to
NW. A tightening of the pressure gradient ahead of the front will
result in breezy conditions Wednesday aftn. Dewpts are expected to
rebound into the 30s, which should keep RH from hitting critical
thresholds. But wind gusts of 20-30 mph may cause some fire
weather concerns. Winds will be lighter on Thursday. Temps will
warm nicely on Wednesday, back into the lower to mid 60s east of
the mountains, with similar highs again Thursday. Lows will be
below normal, close to 30 degrees below the aftn highs thanks to
good radiational cooling each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Tuesday: Quiet weather to continue thru the medium
range, as a large upper ridge slowly builds over the central CONUS
and drifts east. Rising heights aloft will allow temps to return to
above normal, with highs back into the 70s east of the mountains
over the weekend. Dry sfc high pressure remains in control of the
Southeast, with a front passing by to our north Sunday. The 00z
deterministic guidance generally agrees that QPF with that front
may largely miss the forecast area. The next rain chances then
wouldn`t be until early next week. The National Blend of Models
still has chance PoPs returning Sunday into Sunday night. But if
the 00z guidance trends hold, these PoPs may be too high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 12Z TAF period with
some passing upper cirrus at times. Intermittent gusty winds will
linger across most of the terminals through the period but will be
lighter compared to the last few days. KAVL should see winds speeds
gradually diminish after daybreak. Wind direction at KAVL will
remain NW through this afternoon before going calm to light and VRB
by early this evening. Winds will turn back NW overnight at KAVL.
LLWS should develop at KAVL by 03Z, lingering through the end of the
TAF period. Wind direction east of the mountains will generally be
W/WNW this morning before toggling WSW this afternoon and eventually
SW this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions linger through the remainder of the week.
Gusty winds stick around through Wednesday before lighter winds
return Thursday into Saturday. The return of lighter winds will
allow the mountain valley fog/low stratus potential to return each
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ036-037-056-
     057-068>072-082-504-506-508-510.
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...AR