Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 140250 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1050 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A progressive jet stream will support unsettled weather through this evening with active weather returning late Tuesday into Wednesday. Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected behind a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday with a gradual warming of temperatures heading into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1050 PM EDT: Minor adjustments made to temperatures/PoPs to coincide with latest trends, as the rest of the near term forecast remains on track. Showers continue to linger across the area this evening, as the recently passed cold front remains just outside the eastern fringes of the FA. Elsewhere, conditions remain fairly quiet with some patchy areas of fog across the northern foothills. Previous discussion: PoPs will continue to diminish rapidly from west to east through the late evening hours as the boundary and associated deeper moisture move off into the central piedmont of the Carolinas. The main concern for the overnight will be mid/upper drying over lingering moisture on the ground and in the boundary layer. This could lead to areas of fog and low stratus, and the fog could become dense in some locations if the winds remain light enough. The morning fog will burn off fairly quickly Monday morning to provide good insolation for the bulk of the day. Thus, maximum temperatures should rebound to 5 to 10 degrees above climo once again, with dry conditions throughout the day. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 2:45 PM Sunday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z on Tuesday with flat upper ridging over the region. By late Tuesday into early Wednesday, another upper trof will dig down across the Northern Plains and move towards the Ohio River Valley. The trof will amplify as it approaches our area, with the trof axis expected to pass just to our north by the end of the period late Wednesday. At the sfc, dry high pressure will briefly spread over the region late Monday into early Tuesday. The drying will be short-lived as the next round of deep, pre-frontal moisture spreads over the fcst area from the southwest on Tuesday. The models have been trending a bit slower wrt the spread of the deep moisture into the CWFA, and PoPs have been lowered a bit in the 12 to 18z range over the SW zones. The actual cold front won`t reach the CWFA until early Wed, however the bulk of the QPF is still expected to fall late Tues into early Wed. Anticipated storm total QPF is still in the 1 to 2 inch range for most of the non-mtn zones with less expected over the higher terrain. Flood concerns remain minimal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2:35 PM Sunday: the extended forecast picks up at 00z on Thursday with a broad upper trof axis passing just to our north. The trof is expected to rapidly lift NE and away from the fcst area on Thursday with a weaker, secondary trof axis trailing the main axis late Thursday into Friday. This feature should move off the Atlantic Coast by Friday afternoon with heights recovering in its wake. Upper ridging will then spread back over the region for the remainder of the period. At the sfc, cool and dry high pressure will be spreading back over the region by early Thursday as a cold front moves offshore. The high will linger over the region into next weekend. By the later part of the weekend, the high will move off the Atlantic Coast allowing more moist SLY flow to gradually spread back over the CWFA. The period should remain dry with the main concern being low temps cold enough to possibly produce frost over the higher terrain early Thurs and Fri. In addition, the higher terrain will also see wind gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range Thurs morning with speeds diminishing later in the day. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect a mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR due to low cigs, areas of fog, and precipitation through tonight, with any lingering showers tapering off prior to the overnight hours. Conditions are progged to improve by late Sunday morning. With a cold front just to the south and east of the FA, another batch of showers continues to stream into portions of the area, currently affecting KGMU, KGSP, and KAND. With the better instability along the front, expect lingering activity through tonight to remain -SHRA/-DZ. Latest fcst soundings continue to depict drier air infiltrating in behind the recently passed front, especially at the mid to upper levels. However, with available low level moisture and light winds, continue to anticipate MVFR cigs along with patchy areas of fog, potentially IFR at KAVL overnight towards morning. Expect conditions to improve on Monday after daybreak, with VFR prevailing through the remainder of the valid TAF period. NW winds AOB 5 kts will prevail, with nearly clear skies. Outlook: Flight restrictions possible mid-week with another approaching cold front. Confidence Table... 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z KCLT High 80% Med 64% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 97% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% Med 62% High 100% High 100% KHKY Med 73% High 84% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 97% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 94% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPT NEAR TERM...HG/SGL SHORT TERM...JPT LONG TERM...JPT AVIATION...SGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.