-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
827
FXUS62 KGSP 151112
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
612 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures slowly warm to near normal by late week ahead of a
storm system that is expected to bring precipitation to our area
late Friday night into Saturday. Arctic high pressure returns to the
region early next week, with mostly dry conditions expected for now.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 605 AM EST Wednesday: No major changes to the forecast at this
time. Radar is clear and winds have started to diminish across the
mountains with a few lingering low-end gusts at the highest
elevations. Should continue to decrease this morning.

Another quiet stretch of weather ahead in the near term. Today,
winds aloft remain relatively flat and quasi-zonal over the CWA. Out
west, strong split flow with a ridge to the north and cutoff low
over the southern west coast, allows for strong NW winds to barrel
down over the central CONUS. By tonight, a shortwave approaches the
southeast with a stout baroclinic zone. Given the lack of moisture,
this should pass quickly and quietly without much notice. Behind the
wave is strong NW flow, reinforcing the dry, Arctic air. Other than
some general changes to the air above, nothing of note is expected
during this time. At the surface, winds become more southerly later
today as high pressure remains over the area. Winds start to
diminish through the overnight hours at the higher elevations and
become light for Wednesday. As far as any fire weather concerns, low
RH values in the mid 20 percent range expected this afternoon for
most areas east of the mountains. Though light winds are expected,
fuel moisture is low. Something to monitor. As for temps, today is a
few degrees colder and remain below normal. Highs on Wednesday are
also cool, ranging from the 40s and 50s east of the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Wednesday: A short wave drops across the area
Thursday in the northwest flow aloft. This pushed a weak front
across the area. Low level moisture, CAA, and northwesterly low
level flow will lead to a period of NW flow snow showers over the
northern mountains during the afternoon and evening. Right now, it
looks to be a low end event with maybe around an inch or so of snow
in the usual high elevation locations. Windy conditions develop
across all the mountains with wind advisory level gusts across the
higher elevations. There could be enough coverage for a Wind
Advisory during that time. Outside of the mountains, expect breezy
to windy conditions and mostly clear skies. Highs will be around
normal with lows 5 degrees below normal. A transient upper ridge and
surface high pressure cross the area Friday. Highs will be near to
slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Wednesday: The extended period will feature a
developing upper trough over the eastern CONUS with a series of
short waves moving across the area. Saturday has weak northern and
southern stream short waves that phase slightly as they move east.
These waves push a cold front across the area Saturday. Deep
moisture increases ahead of the cold front and into the area late
Friday night into Saturday. Precip chances ramp up quickly late
Friday night, lingering into Saturday morning, then tapering off
during the afternoon. Surface temps and thermal profiles suggest a
period of wintry weather for the NC mountains and I-40 corridor.
Precip would appear to start as snow or sleet as temps wet bulb down
then change over to freezing rain and rain as a warm nose develops
and surface temps warm. Accumulation amounts are highly uncertain,
but a light accumulation of snow and sleet and light accretion of
ice are possible. The rest of the forecast area looks to see only
rain, although, as often occurs in the winter, a brief period of
sleet is possible at precip onset before quickly changing to rain.

A secondary northern stream wave crosses the area Sunday which
pushes a weak low pressure center and secondary cold front across
the southeast. The guidance agrees on a precip changeover to snow
for the NC mountains but doesn`t agree on precip chances elsewhere.
Some are dry while others show enough moisture and forcing for a
brief period of precip. For now, have kept a small PoP over the NC
mountains with diminishing PoP elsewhere.

The guidance agrees on an arctic air mass moving into the area
Monday and Tuesday with temps dropping to around 20 degrees below
normal. The guidance shows some precip may move in during the day
Tuesday, but differs greatly on coverage and location. Have capped
any PoP at slight chance for now, as there is quite a bit of
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the period as
high pressure remains across the entire area. The drier air
filtering into the area keeps skies SKC, so no vsby/cig issues.
Winds across the mountains have low-end gusts at KAVL and are
expected to diminish this morning. Wind direction prevails N/NW at
most sites with KGSP and KAND remaining W/SW. By tomorrow morning,
winds are expected to turn more S/SE outside the mountain terminals.
By early Thursday afternoon, gusts begin to pick up at KCLT.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions should prevail through Friday.
Precip/restrictions possibly return Saturday with another cold front
and precipitation.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CP