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000
FXUS62 KGSP 180550
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
150 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a weak cold
front crosses the area, but unseasonably warm weather continues
through Saturday.  Below-normal temperatures and widespread light
rain is expected Sunday with cool and unsettled weather persisting
through Monday.  Drier and warmer weather will return to the area
Tuesday through Thursday next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday: High clouds will continue to clear from
the west (albeit w/ lingering stratocu extending from the TN
Valley into the southern Appalachians), with decent radiational
cooling conditions expected to eventually develop in most
locations. With near- surface moisture remaining elevated, some
BR could develop in the mountain valleys...mainly across the TN
border counties toward sunrise. Min temps will again be around
10 degrees above normal. Dry high pressure and upper ridge
return on Thursday with lighter winds. Highs Thursday are
expected to be around 15 degrees above normal...with readings
possibly pushing 90 across portions of the Piedmont. Right now,
it appears that only GSP will threaten a record high with AVL
and CLT having much higher records, both set in 1896.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday: Continuing with a rather uneventful short
term. Current trends have a weak ridge sliding off the coast at the
beginning of the period, replaced with a weak cold front crossing
the area, or at least attempting to. By Friday, it`s possible the
weak cold front could extend into the CWA and at least bring a
slight chance for precip. The problem is the extremely dry BL.
Modeled soundings show a strong inverted-V extending from 800mb to
the surface. While there is minimal instability, any precip that
does develop aloft will fall into a very dry layer and evaporate.
Virga will likely be the result of this, but if the layer can become
more saturated, measurable rainfall could occur. These amounts would
be small with the better chances for any worthwhile amounts being in
the far western fringe of the NC mountains. Confidence isn`t high
for this. As far as convection, the GFS shows better instability but
also high amounts of DCAPE. There also looks to be minimal forcing
available with intermittent DPVA across the CWA. Can`t rule out an
isolated storm but with the higher DCAPE, quickly decaying storms
could produce strong winds with any outflow. After that, flow aloft
turns more quasi-zonal through the end of the period. Friday temps
will be warmer than Saturday, as the weakened boundary will bring
slightly cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday: Out west, an amplifying ridge builds in and
continues the dry spell. A strong sfc high develops over the central
CONUS Saturday night and turns winds N/NE as the high progresses
eastward. Models suggest an in-situ wedge developing and keep temps
mild Sunday and Monday. A shortwave could traverse the area bringing
a slight chance for precip late Sunday. By the start of the work
week, a low attempts to develop over the central plains. Guidance
diverges on this potential system. The GFS has a split trough diving
southward over the CWA Monday afternoon through Tuesday, where the
Euro has minimal disturbance in the flow. Either way, this wouldn`t
be a system of significant impacts and if it develops, could bring
some rainfall. How much is yet to be determined as the low could
remain elusive. By Tuesday, the ridge axis over the central CONUS
amplifies, turning flow aloft out of the NW. Current trends keep the
area mostly dry but will continue to watch for any signs of precip.
Overall, the pattern keeps a mild and tame look. Winds should become
more W/SW once again by the end of the period. The warmest day looks
to be Saturday with highs reaching the 80s. Temperatures drop for
Sunday and Monday into the upper 60s from the N/NE sfc flow. Lows
appear to remain above freezing through the period, with Monday
night dipping into the low 40s across the Piedmont. Temps at the
highest mountain elevations could come close to freezing but
confidence is low. However, can`t rule out some potential minor
frost.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The back edge of the cirrostratus cloud
shield will continue to press into and through the piedmont early
this morning yeilding a clear sky, save for the potential of fog in
the Little Tenn Valley, and a smattering of stratocu in the higher
elevations of the western NC mtns.  For the daytime hours today,
expect sunshine regionwide with winds 8 kts or less but giving way
to higher level cloud cover again this evening.

Outlook: An unsettled pattern is expected to develop tonight into
Friday, lingering through the weekend, with periodic precip/possible
TS and restrictions. Drier conditions return for Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1896     44 1921     60 1927     28 1905
                                        1891
   KCLT      93 1896     45 1983     66 1896     32 2001
   KGSP      89 2002     51 1983     66 1927     28 1905
                1967



RECORDS FOR 04-19

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1896     42 1983     63 1925     27 1983
                            1910
   KCLT      89 2002     44 1983     67 1995     30 2001
                1955                                1983
                1941
   KGSP      93 1917     47 1983     64 2015     31 2001
                                        1927



RECORDS FOR 04-20

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1896     41 1904     62 1941     27 1988
                                                    1983
   KCLT      91 1896     48 1892     67 1963     28 1983
                                        1917
   KGSP      94 1917     49 1904     65 2002     25 1983
                                        1927



RECORDS FOR 04-21

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1963     48 1943     59 1923     26 1904
   KCLT      90 1963     48 1901     64 2002     30 1983
                                        1995
                                        1927
   KGSP      90 1963     43 1901     63 2011     27 1983
                1917                    2002



RECORDS FOR 04-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1963     46 1927     62 1964     28 2021
                1896
   KCLT      91 1963     47 1901     66 1909     32 2021
                1957
   KGSP      90 1963     43 1901     68 1896     32 2021
                                                    1978



RECORDS FOR 04-23

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1960     42 1903     61 1957     29 1986
   KCLT      91 1980     51 1901     64 1920     31 2021
                1963
                1960
   KGSP      91 1980     48 1901     66 1920     32 1982
                1963
                1960



RECORDS FOR 04-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1925     49 2005     60 1979     26 1893
   KCLT      96 1925     54 2005     68 1925     36 1893
   KGSP      92 1925     53 2021     66 1961     31 1986
                            1901                    1903

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CSH/JDL
CLIMATE...GSP