986
FXUS64 KHUN 110826
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Upper level northwest flow as well as surface high pressure will
provide for another mild day. Although, a weak surface front looks
to progress over Kentucky and Tennessee today then move over
northern Alabama by the evening. However, only anticipating some
upper level clouds to sweep over the area as a result of this
feature. Otherwise, expect highs to top out in the 70s for most
areas today. Additionally, it may be a touch breezy, but winds
will be a bit less than yesterday. At this point, sustained winds
around 12-15 mph with gusts to between 15-20 are possible this
afternoon. Enjoy the day!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Upper level ridging will make its way over the Southeast
Sunday/Sunday night, then begin to shift eastward as a shortwave
trough nears from the west. Models currently show this feature
moving over the Mississippi Valley overnight Monday into Tuesday.
Surface high pressure over the weekend will eventually be pushed
east as a surface low develops over the central and southern
Plains. This low is progged to move east through early next week
and bring our next chance at showers and storms on Monday. Medium
to high chances (50-80%) of showers and storms are forecast from
Monday afternoon through Monday night, bringing around an inch of
rain or so to portions of the area. The most probable time frame
for storms looks to be in the evening and overnight, as
instability and shear values increase with the advancement of the
aforementioned surface low. One question will be the trajectory of
this low and where its associated warm front will move (remain
south of our area or progress over northern Alabama?). This will
determine the potential for any strong storms. At this time, the
warm front looks to remain to our south overnight Monday and thus,
severe weather is not anticipated. This will be monitored as we
get closer; however, we can expect gusty winds, heavy rain, and
frequent lightning in any storms that do develop.

After another cool night tonight in the 50s (with some spots
possibly in the upper 40s over southern middle TN and NE AL), it
will be a bit warmer on Sunday. Highs are forecast to top out in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday night will also be warmer
as moisture begins to increase, with temperatures generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. With medium to high chances of rain on
Monday, highs are expected to only reach the lower 70s. However,
lows Monday night will be warmer due to elevated moisture levels,
in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will continue as we go into the
week. An upper level area of low pressure now over the southern
Great Basin will move eastward over the next few days, and should
reach the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Tue. Upper troughing
accompanying this system will place the area under a SW-NE upper
flow. A surface low with this system and a cold front nearing from
the west will continue a trend of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley. Overall storm
strength continues to look "general" with a usual potential for
gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. The
aformentioned cold front should move across the area Tue night
with shower activity ending from west to east. The parent low
however will move slower to the east. Its location over the Ohio
Valley, and residual moisture over our eastern areas will keep
lower end rain chances in on Wed, mainly east of I-65 and over our
more NE areas.

A brief break in shower activity is forecast Wed night as the
first low finally exits more to the north and east. More showers
and storm chances return on Thu as yet another system nears from
the west. Output from the deterministic models was becoming more
uncertain (comparing the precip fields with one another), so
trended more with the blends. They were suggesting the best rain
chances Thu night into Fri. This system looked similar overall
strength wise with the earlier system, with mainly non-severe
storms anticipated.

High temperatures on Tue and Wed should range in the upper 70s. A
bit warmer on Thu with highs in the lower 80s, and around 80 Fri.
Lows Tue night should range in the lower 60s, and a bit cooler
Wed night in the upper 50s, then back into the lower 60s Thu
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday night. Clear skies
will also continue, but a few upper level clouds may stream
overhead by this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and
variable overnight, then become west/northwesterly at around 10
knots this afternoon. Expecting winds to then quickly diminish
through the evening to be around 5 knots or less.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26