411
FXUS64 KTSA 071741
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail today under sunny/mostly
sunny skies as surface ridging shifts into eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas by this afternoon. Current forecast remains on
track, with another warm, but much less humid day ahead.
Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the low-mid 80s,
warmest temperatures south of the I-40 corridor. Only minor
adjustments to the forecast are expected through the remainder of
the day.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The strengthening warm frontal zone and deepening sfc low will be
near NE OK / NW AR early Wednesday and mark a zone of increasing
lift within a strongly unstable and weakly capped airmass. The
result will be early storm initiation in or near the forecast area
with a quick transition toward a severe weather threat. Storms
will expand eastward and southward along the advancing cold front
through Wednesday afternoon and evening with severe potential
increasing for areas southeast of Interstate 44. The veered low
level flow and advancing cold front may focus the higher tornado
threat further east of the local region, however big CAPE can do
big things and all hazards will be possible with large hail and
locally damaging winds the more apparent threats at this time.
Additionally, another round of locally heavy rainfall will again
raise flooding concerns.

And then a break from the recent active pattern. Flow aloft become
more northwesterly and sfc high pressure builds into the southern
Plains Friday into Saturday. Dry and mild weather conditions are
expected for several days. Thunderstorm chances return late in the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and
through this evening. As a cold front approaches from the
northwest overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning, strong
low-level wind shear will develop over all of the TAF sites,
mostly impacting the terminals between midnight tonight and
sunrise Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
along the cold front as it pushes through the area during the
mid-late morning hours. Guidance indicates MVFR ceilings
developing ahead of the frontal boundary, with VFR conditions
returning for the northeast Oklahoma terminals by or just before
midday behind the cold front. MVFR ceilings, along with
rain/storms will likely linger at MLC and the Arkansas terminals
through the end of the TAF period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  84  54 /  10  20  50  10
FSM   86  63  87  59 /  10  10  50  40
MLC   86  64  86  59 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   83  55  82  49 /  10  20  20   0
FYV   83  59  84  54 /  10  10  60  30
BYV   82  57  83  53 /  10  10  70  30
MKO   83  60  84  54 /  10  10  40  10
MIO   81  57  81  51 /  10  10  50  10
F10   83  61  85  54 /  10  10  30  10
HHW   86  66  85  62 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67