Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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928
FXUS61 KALY 271733
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
133 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers are possible the rest of the holiday
weekend, as a cold front stalls just south of our region this
afternoon. It will be milder on Monday as the front returns back
north as a warm front, but there will still be a chance of showers
mainly west of the Hudson Valley during the afternoon. Another weak
front will come through Monday night, making for a dry Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 133 PM EDT...The frontal boundary has lifted northeast
over NY and PA with a wave of low pressure moving along it.
Moisture continues to over run the boundary with the sfc low
increasing the low-level convergence for periods of light rain
or showers especially from the eastern Catskills, Capital Region
and Berkshires north into the southern Adirondacks and southern
VT. The northern reaches of the forecast area may stay dry for
a part of the day. A lull in the rain has occurred over the
southeast extreme of the area near the mid and lower Hudson
Valley, but will be spotty there until the later afternoon. Some
retooling of the POPS was done with this update. Max temps were
reached prior to wet bulb cooling in a few spots such as the
Capital Region.

Daytime highs will likely be in the 50s to mid
60s. The clouds and rain along with onshore surface winds will
keep temperatures down today compared to yesterday...by 15-20+
degrees. East to northeast winds will yield raw and dank
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The area of enhanced coverage of showers is expected to build
east into New England, exiting the Berkshires, NW CT and
southern VT by this evening. There will still be some scattered
showers that linger from the Mohawk Valley and Berkshires and
points south until the upper energy exits. By daybreak only
isolated showers may be around as boundary layer flow turns more
to the west.

Boundary layer flow will be light through Monday but being from
the west and with the old frontal boundary retreating east and
north, there could be some breaks in the clouds in some areas
during the afternoon. However, light south winds much of the day
and uncertainties as to how much the cloud cover does linger,
leads to questions about just how far east the old boundary gets
and much we can warm Monday. There could still some isolated
showers in northern areas late in the afternoon with the
approach of a weakening cold front out of Canada. Highs Monday
in the 70s but near 80 western Mohawk Valley and around 70 to
lower 70s Berkshires and southern VT.

The weak cold front with little moisture or low level forcing
drops south through our region Monday night with maybe just an
isolated shower in northern areas. More noticeable clearing is
expected Tuesday as drier air pushes in but temperatures
actually warm due to the deep drying and more sunshine. Highs
Tuesday in the lower to mid 80s but some 70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period starts out on Wednesday with surface high pressure
positioned along the southern New England coast, and ridge axis
aloft over our region. This pattern will result in dry and warm
conditions with a light southerly breeze. The ridge axis is forecast
to remain over our region through Wednesday night.

Then, we will be watching the remnant circulation of Alberto, which
is forecast to weaken as it encounters the strong upper ridge along
the east coast. The remnant low is expected to track northeast
across the central Great Lakes on Thursday and into southeast Canada
Thursday night. This system should at least spread some showers into
our region, especially late Thursday into Thursday night.

Most medium range sources of guidance then indicating the remnant
low of Alberto merges with an upper trough in SE Canada and tracks
south across our region Friday into Saturday. This would result in
scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions. Above normal temp and PWAT anomalies are forecast,
so locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but the pattern
evolution is far from certain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal boundary will stall to the south of the region today,
while a ridge of high pressure becomes anchored along the New
England coast. This pattern will induce a moist easterly flow,
with low stratus clouds in MVFR range expected to envelope all
the terminals by around 13Z-14Z.

Showers will also develop to the north of the stalled frontal
boundary as a wave of low pressure forms along the front.
Showers should become steady from KPOU to KALB/KPSF between
12Z-15Z. A few showers may approach KGFL so will continue to
mention VCSH there. Cigs already IFR at KPSF, and are expected
to lower to IFR at KPOU by later this morning. Showers will end
during the early evening, but low cigs will remain due to
continued moist easterly flow.

Winds will be east-southeast around 5-10 kt through the period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible the rest of
the holiday weekend as a cold front stalls just south of our
region today. It will be milder on Monday as the front returns
back north but there will still be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly west of the Hudson Valley and mainly
during the afternoon. Another weak front will come through
Monday night, making for a dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainy conditions will keep RH values above 70 percent today and
tonight. RH values will drop to 60 to 75 percent on Monday.

Winds will generally be east to southeast at around 15 mph today
with some localized gusts to 20 mph possible. Winds will be
southeast 5 to 15 mph tonight, and south to southwest at 5 to 10
mph on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next few days.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected today with
more isolated to scattered showers Monday. The best coverage of
rain today will be along and south of the Mohawk Valley and
southern VT. Rainfall amounts are expected to be up to a quarter
inch in the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson valley and NW CT with
up to a tenth of an inch elsewhere. Locally heavier rain could
occur in isolated thunderstorms.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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