Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
951 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms
to the area tonight. Cooler with gusty westerly winds Wednesday
with dry weather returning. Fair and seasonably mild Thursday,
before another storm system brings more showers Thursday night
and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Rain tracking through eastern NY and based on 00Z area
soundings, quite stable over the region. The boundary layer
thermal gradient is expected to tighten quite a bit around or
after midnight and the low level wind shift will aid in some low
level forcing as well. Keeping isolated thunder in the KPOU area
to NW CT and southern Berkshires.

Made some additional minor adjustments to the timing and
coverage of showers tonight and minor touches to temperatures
based on current conditions and trends. Previous AFD has a few
more details and is below...

Amplifying shortwave trough quickly approaching from the Great
Lakes region. The system will strengthen as it moves through
tonight as northern stream energy rotating about the base of the
upper trough interacts with southern stream energy moving into
the region ahead of the trough. An upper low is expected to
develop over the eastern Great Lakes this evening.

Regional radars show showers with embedded thunderstorms across
western and central NY and PA heading eastward. Clouds will
quickly increase across the area as we head into the evening
with showers moving into and across the local area this evening
with embedded thunderstorms possible especially west of the
Hudson River Valley. Rainfall of around an a half of an inch is
expected across portions of the western Adirondacks and higher
terrain of south Vermont with a quarter to a third of an inch
generally along and north of I-90 with with lesser amounts to
the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Gusty westerly winds Wednesday with gusts up to 40 mph.

By Wednesday morning the system will be stacked and centered
over Quebec and the North Country of NY. The system will begin
to fill as it moves across northern New England during the day
with heights beginning to rise as ridging builds in behind it.
Expecting some lingering showers in the cyclonic flow especially
in the morning to the north and west of the Capital District.

The pressure gradient will be quite tight and with good mixing
in cold air advection westerly winds will become breezy and
gusty. Expecting sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of
30 to 40 mph much of the day. It will be much cooler than recent
days with temperatures slightly below seasonable normal with
highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s in the valleys and in the
40s above 1000 feet with some 30s across the highest terrain of
the Adirondacks.

Ridging builds in Wednesday night with winds diminishing and
clouds decreasing setting the stage for a chilly night. Expecting
lows in the 30s.

Fair weather Thursday with ridging moving across the region.
Warmer as temperatures rebound nicely with lots of sun.
Expecting highs from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Southern and northern stream systems will be in the approach
Thursday night into Friday which will bring another widespread
rainfall to the area to close out the work week. Guidance
indicates these streams may interact during the day Friday if so
then heavier rainfall would be expected due to a stronger
system. Either way expect showers to move into the region late
Thursday night and continue on Friday. Cooler due to clouds and
rain but seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Very quick northern stream upper flow resulting in quite a bit of
disagreement in sources of guidance/ensembles through the period.
Better agreement for the Friday through Sunday time frame but but
rapidly increasing spread in guidance/ensembles later Sunday through
Tuesday.

Upper energy, a cold front and associated showers exit the region
Friday night and Saturday with a bit of a cooldown. Highs Saturday
in the 50s to around 60 but some upper 40s northern areas and around
60 southern areas. Potentially dry weather Saturday night but
another upper impulse and weak cold front with scattered showers
timed for Sunday. Highs Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s but
upper 40s to lower 50s higher terrain.

On Monday and Tuesday, our weather will depend on the position of
where the west/east oriented boundary layer gradient sets up and the
timing of more small northern stream impulses through our region.
Those uncertainties suggest indicating at least intervals of clouds
and chances for showers.  Although, there is a chance the low level
forcing and upper impulses could be mainly north of our region with
less clouds, fewer clouds and nicer weather.

However, again, due to uncertainties, periods of clouds and
scattered showers late Monday through Tuesday. Highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s but upper 40s to lower 50s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Band of light showers in central NY will affect eastern NY and
western New England through about 06Z-10Z with the best chances
for showers between 00Z-06Z. VFR ceilings and visibilities will
prevail, even in most of the showers but during the period of
best chances of showers there could be some heavier rain with
MVFR ceilings and visibilities. After 09Z-11Z, ceilings will be
predominantly VFR again as will visibilities but winds will
shift to northwest and become gusty after the cold frontal
passage. Winds will be gusty through Wednesday afternoon.

South to southwest winds at 10 Kt or less this evening. Have
included low level wind shear conditions at KPOU and KGFL
through 05Z-06Z as increasing winds aloft may not translate to
the surface. Winds will shift to west and northwest between
06Z-11Z and increase to 12-15 Kt with gusts to 25 Kt. West to
northwest winds will increase to 15-18Kt with gusts 25-30 Kt
after 14Z- 15Z and continue through Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Isolated SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts up to 40 mph Wednesday...
Minimum relative humidity levels in the 30s Thursday...

Showers with a few thunderstorms tonight. Cooler with gusty
westerly winds Wednesday with dry weather returning. Fair
and seasonably mild Thursday, before another storm system
brings more showers and cooler temperatures for Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warning remains in effect on the Schroon River at
Riverbank. The Schroon River at Riverbank will continue to
gradually fall and is forecast to go below 8 feet, moderate
flood stage, after 2 am Thursday. Please visit our Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area
rivers and lakes observations and forecasts.

A quick moving system will bring showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms to the area tonight, especially this evening.
Rainfall of around an a half of an inch is expected across
portions of the western Adirondacks and higher terrain of south
Vermont with a quarter to a third of an inch generally along
and north of I-90 with with lesser amounts to the south.

Another storm system is expected to bring widespread rainfall
to the region Thursday night and Friday. Current indications
from the MMEFS suggest additional rises are possible, but river
levels should remain below flood stage, although trends will
need to be watched closely.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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