Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 240224

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1024 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Our stretch of delightful weather will come to an end Tuesday
through a stalled storm system over the Mississippi
Valley will grudgingly push by to our south. Rain from the slow
moving system is forecast to average around an inch through
Wednesday night. The rain will taper off and end as showers Thursday
and Thursday night as high pressure will nose in from the Ohio


Cirrus clouds continue to increase across the Eastern Great
Lakes from the Ohio Valley tonight, with mid level clouds
arriving later tonight. For sites west of the Finger
Lakes...this will include a fair amount of alto-cu by daybreak.
Mins tonight will generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s...a
difference of as much as 15 degrees (North Country) from Monday

On Tuesday...Atlantic moisture will continue to deepen across our
forecast area as the lumbering stacked storm system will make its
way to the east across the Tennessee Valley. While the day is
expected to be rain free for sites east of Wayne County...the
thickening cloud cover in the west will be lifted by a pair
processes. Initially...the forcing will be supplied by a diffluent
upper level flow. As we work our way through the day...the bulk of
the lift will come as a result of significantly falling hgts and a
weakly coupled H25 jet. Any way you slice it...scattered showers
over the Southern Tier by mid morning will expand to the northeast
and become a steady rain during the course of the afternoon. Pops
have been raised for all of the western counties to likely-
categorical while timing as been moved up by several hours.


Cutoff low will still be over the Tennessee Valley as we start
Tuesday night, while a northern stream shortwave digs across the
northern Great Lakes. This shortwave will interact with the closed
low as it moves into the Ohio Valley and gets absorbed within the
northern stream westerlies. This interaction will increase rain
chances across all of western and north central New York Tuesday
night and then into Wednesday, as a surface cold front associated
with the shortwave approaches from the northwest.

Widespread rainfall is likely to continue into Wednesday night
as the northern stream wave pushes across the region and the
associated surface wave lifts northward across the region.
Precipitable water values forecast to increase to nearly 2
standard deviations above normal, which would suggest the
potential for heavy downpours at times and some ponding of water
on roadways throughout the day Wednesday. The cloudy and wet
conditions will limit high temperatures Wednesday to the 50s.

Both the upper wave and the surface low start to lift out of the
region during Thursday, bringing an end to the steadier rains
from west to east during the morning. Precipitation may still
lingering through Thursday afternoon across the North Country
area if the closed low lifts out slower than forecast.

A shortwave ridge looks to eventually move over the area on
Thursday night bringing a brief break in precipitation before
the next wave diving out of Canada brings another round of
precipitation to close out the work week or early in the


The shortwave ridge looks to remain in place for Friday
continuing dry weather through at least the first half of
Friday. Upper trough dropping through the Great Lakes will bring
a cold front through the region during the late Friday or early
Saturday period, bringing another round of rain showers, but
fair amount of model disagreement keeps predictability on
details low. Behind this system, the eventual building of a
ridge into the region is on horizon. How fast this happens is in
question, but could be looking at sharply warmer temperatures
by early next week.


For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions are expected to continue through the first 18 hours of
the TAF cycle.

While cirrus will thicken through the beginning of the TAF cycle,
mid clouds will not arrive until late tonight...which will then
lower to near MVFR range with chances for light rain showers the
final 6 hours of the TAF cycle.


Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with occasional
Thursday...MVFR improving to VFR with scattered showers.
Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers.


High pressure will drift slowly east off the southern New England
coast through tonight. This will continue to provide light winds in
most areas today, although easterly winds will increase locally at
the west end of Lake Ontario this afternoon with choppy conditions
west of Rochester. Otherwise fairly light winds will continue
tonight through the middle of the week as weak low pressure moves
from the Ohio Valley to southern New England.





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