Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260509
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Thunderstorms have cleared the SE CWA as of late morning, with only
some convective debris clouds in the vicinity of Barber county. With
a clear sky and late May sun behind the departing MCS, the
atmosphere is destabilizing strongly (already MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg as
of 10 AM). 12z NAM cranks CAPE to the 3000-4000 J/kg range across
the SE zones (SE of Dodge City) with the strongest instability
across Comanche/Barber counties. Despite the instability, there are
very few triggers to initiate convection.
Some outflow boundaries from last night`s convection may help to
get something going, but the lack of flow/shear in the upper
levels would render any thunderstorm`s life span short. Kept all
grids dry (pops<15%) for all zones through this evening.
Temperatures will warm well into the 90s, with light winds
maintaining an easterly component.

Tonight...Ridge begins to build into SW KS, keeping the sky mostly
clear. Light and variable winds. Lows Saturday morning ranging
from the upper 50s at Syracuse to the upper 60s at Kiowa.

Saturday...Sunny and hot. Amplified high pressure ridge builds
strongly over the plains, sandwiched between a 567 dm upper low
near Las Vegas Nevada, and subtropical storm Alberto in the Gulf
of Mexico. Subsidence will be on the increase, killing any chance
of convection and sending temperatures soaring. Zeroed out the pop
grids, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
Expecting enough of a lee trough in eastern Colorado to induce
increasing SE winds in the afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Long term forecast trends are quite simple. Above normal
temperatures will continue (both max and min temps) with all
readings well above normal (normal is lower 80s and mid 50s).
Some thunderstorm chances are apparent, with the best opportunity
of organized/severe convection during the Monday/Tuesday
timeframe.

Sunday...Strong ridge axis shifts east of SW KS, allowing SW flow
to impinge some from the west, as upper low sits and spins over
Utah. Models remain consistent on developing convection within
the lee trough convergence zone, mainly west of US 83. Marginal
moisture will result in inverted-V soundings, high bases, and
downburst potential. Afternoon temperatures in the 90s.

Memorial Day...Monitoring for severe weather potential. Closed low
continues to sit and spin over Utah, while slowly weakening.
Tropical cyclone Alberto will make landfall in the central Gulf
Coast, but the ridge/associated subsidence surrounding Alberto is
forecasted to remain SE of SW KS. 12z ECMWF continues to hint at
shortwaves/jet maxima arriving in the SW flow around the Utah
cyclone during maximum heating. Medium range models continue to
suggest moisture quality below climatological par for late May
(upper 50s and lower 60s) thanks in part to offshore/NW flow west
of Alberto. Still, at least some storms should be capable of large
hail and damaging winds Memorial Day afternoon/evening. Pops are
in the scattered category for now.

Tuesday...Western US low weakens into an open wave and passes
north of SW KS, with a trailing dryline likely sparking further
convection. Strong convection is anticipated if Alberto`s
subsidence does not interfere.

After Tuesday, broad ridging becomes better established with time,
with rain/thunderstorm prospects dwindling and temperatures
climbing. In fact, 12z ECMWF suggests intense heat by next
weekend, progging SW KS on the subsident northern lobe of a
massive 598 dm W TX subtropical ridge. The worst of this heatwave
will stay in NM and W TX, and but still undoubtedly some triple
digit heat will sneak across the Oklahoma border next Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Quiet aviation weather is forecast through the period as high
pressure aloft will suppress thunderstorm activity. Prevailing
wind will remain from the south to southeast at speeds of 8 to 11
knots tonight. Wind speeds will increase later in the day
Saturday, especially at GCK and LBL to 16 to 20 knots sustained.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  61  97  66  94 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  60  98  64  95 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  60  99  65  96 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  63  95  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
P28  67  95  68  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid



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