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000
FXUS63 KDDC 171014
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

As of 2 am the DDC radar was showing showers struggling to
develop across southwest Kansas. Will continue to monitor this but
do not think anything more than a few sprinkles at best will
develop from this during the pre dawn hours. East of highway 183
some light showers or possibly even an isolate thunderstorm will
have a better chance for developing through daybreak based on the
the RAP 850mb-700mb moisture transport, mid level instability,
850mb warm air advection and location of the 12 to 14c 700mb
temperatures.

Hot, Dry, and Windy conditions can be expected across southwest
Kansas this afternoon. Gusty south winds at 20 to 30 mph are
expected to develop around noon time as 40 to near 45 knot winds
in the 850 to 800mb level begins to mix down to the surface. Also
based on these mixing depth of the model soundings it looks like
the highs for today will range from 100 to around 103. Latest
HRRR, ARW and GFS all also has afternoon dewpoints falling back
into the upper 50s to lower 60s. This would keep the heat index
values this afternoon for southwest Kansas near but still below
105 today. The exception will be east of a Hays to Medicine lodge
line where higher dew points will be likely and as the
temperatures climb to near 103. In this area the heat index values
of around 105 is currently expected so will be issuing a heat
advisory for the I-70 corridor and locations east of a Hays to
Larned to western Barber county line.

Strong gusty winds will be possible from some widely scattered
thunderstorms that will be developing near the Colorado border and
across northwest Kansas after 5 pm. These storms will develop
near a surface boundary that is forecast to stretch from southeast
Colorado into northwest Kansas late day. Once developed these
storms will move east across southwest and north central Kansas
where they will begin to weaken after sunset. High cloud bases and
inverted V sounding supports strong damaging winds of up to 70
mph being the main hazards from these storms early tonight. At
this time am unsure just how far east these storms will move
before dissipating but it appears storms may be able to move as
far as Larned or Dodge City by midnight. The area most favorable
for the strong winds this evening appears to be located near and
west of a Liberal to Hays line.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

The late July heat will continue late week and into the weekend.
See no reason to disagree with the previous forecast in keeping
the highs Thursday through Saturday in the 100 to around 103
degree range. Lows each night will be in the 70s with the
potential for overnight lows dropping only into the upper 70s/near
80 Thursday night and Friday night across portions of south
central Kansas. Heat index values late week east of highway 183
and along the Oklahoma border still shows the potential to climb
to around 105 based on the latest dew point forecast as gusty
south southeast winds develop. Further west the dew points will be
lower and as a result so will the heat index readings.

A cold front still looks on track to cross southwest Kansas late
this weekend. The GFS and ECMWF differ on timing with the GFS
being the more aggressive model with the frontal passage. Will be
leaning towards the ECMWF given better performance issues
recently. As a result the warm/hot air located just south of this
cold front is expected to linger across southwest Kansas through
Saturday with highs near 100 still being possible near the
Oklahoma border on Sunday. As this cold front crosses southwest
Kansas late Sunday it will bring our next chance for thunderstorms
to southwest Kansas late Sunday along with some cooler air. Get
ready for a break in the +100 degree heat early next week. Highs
on Monday are expected to be only in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Gusty south southwest winds at 20 to near 25 knots will develop
between 15z and 18z today as the surface pressure gradient across
southwest Kansas increases and stronger winds located in the
850mb to 800mb level mixes down to the surface. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible early tonight and based on the
latest HRRR, ARW, and NMM these storms will cross the Garden City,
Hays a Liberal areas between 03z and 06z Thursday. These storms
will cross the Dodge City area around 06z Thursday. VFR conditions
can be expected today and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  74 101  76 /  20  20   0   0
GCK 102  70 103  73 /  10  30   0   0
EHA 101  70 104  71 /  10  30   0   0
LBL 101  72 103  74 /  10  20   0   0
HYS 103  75 103  76 /  20  30   0   0
P28 103  78 101  79 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert