Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232359
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
659 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

A deformation zone that extended from northeast New Mexico into
eastern Kansas will wallow slowly to the northeast this evening. A
jet streak evident on satellite imagery over southern British
Columbia will ripple through the northern branch of the westerlies
into North Dakota by sunrise Wednesday. The deformation zone in
the Central Plains will begin to propagate east as the northern
branch upper level trough digs toward the upper Midwest. A few
very light showers/sprinkles are possible near the deformation
zone this afternoon with a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms under an upper level cold pool in northeast New
Mexico. Anything that develops in Kansas will have to fall through
a deep layer of dry air, and the potential for measurable
precipitation at the surface is quite low.

Mid level cloudiness will persist this afternoon and much of the
night from southwest into south central Kansas, but only thin
cirrus can be expected elsewhere. Skies will become mostly clear
except for some thin cirrus by Wednesday morning as a weak short
wave ridge builds into western Kansas behind the deformation zone.
Lows tonight will fall into the 30s from west central into
northern Kansas with light surface winds and surface dewpoints
near 30 degrees. Low level winds will become light from the west
later tonight and weak downslope flow should help to keep
temperatures above freezing. Wednesday should be quiet in western
Kansas as the upper level cyclone currently over northern Mexico
propagates into north Texas and dry northwest flow aloft prevails.
The pressure gradient will be quite weak between a developing lee
trough and low pressure with the upper level cyclone to the
south. Temperatures will rise above seasonal averages and should
reach the mid to upper 70s.

A weak cold front will move across western Kansas Wednesday night
as the northern branch upper level trough digs toward the Great
Lakes. There will be no opportunity for low level moisture return
with the upper level cyclone wallowing along the Gulf coast, so no
sensible weather other than a wind shift and possibly a brief
period of stratus will accompany the front. A plume of warm air in
advance of the front will keep lows in the mid to upper 40s
Wednesday night. Cold air advection will result in slightly cooler
temperatures Thursday, but highs probably still will be above
seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Lee troughing will amplify on Friday as another vigorous upper
level trough moves from the Pacific Northwest to the northern
Rockies and westerlies increase across the Rockies. Some high
based showers are possible Thursday night in a region of mid level
frontogenesis and warm air advection, but moisture will be
limited. A narrow band of paltry low level moisture will try to
return to western Kansas and eastern Colorado Friday afternoon,
and the GFS hints at the possibility for thunderstorm development
in eastern Colorado with subsequent propagation into southwest
Kansas during the evening. Any thunderstorms that do form will be
high based and may pose a wind threat. Strong isentropic lifting
over a warm front across northern Kansas will favor development of
a cluster of thunderstorms in southern Nebraska and extreme
northern Kansas Friday night. A cold front will surge across
Kansas Friday night and Saturday morning as the upper level trough
digs from the northern Rockies into the Central Plains. Low level
flow will be strongly veered in advance of the front, and mid
level temperatures will be quite warm. As such, the potential for
thunderstorms in western Kansas is low.

Surface high pressure will build into Kansas behind the front
Saturday, but lee troughing will develop again Sunday. A southern
branch upper level cyclone will move into the southwestern United
States Monday and should approach the Central Plains Tuesday.
There is uncertainty in synoptic scale details early next week, as
is typical in this regime. The ECMWF is much stronger than the
GFS and GEM with a northern branch upper level trough Sunday and
carries a cold front across Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening,
while the GFS keeps Kansas in the warm sector through Monday and
does not bring the cold front across western Kansas until Tuesday.

Tropical thunderstorm activity is increasing in the Indian Ocean
and projects onto a Madden-Juilian Oscillation (MJO). The GFS
develops a robust MJO that approaches the Maritime Continent by
the 27-28 April. The ECMWF weakens the MJO as it approaches the
Maritime Continent but propagates it at a speed similar to the GFS
solution. With at least a somewhat robust MJO approaching the
Maritime Continent, upper level troughing should be favored in the
western United States. The GFS is quicker to develop a mean
trough in the western United States and seems to be responding to
the MJO better than the ECMWF. As such, the GFS generally is
favored for the synoptic pattern early next week, although there
is little confidence in the details. An active pattern is likely
to continue into the first part of May with a mean trough in the
western United States and ridging in the eastern part of the
country.

Truly rich tropical moisture probably will not return early next
week, but dewpoints should reach at least the mid to upper 50s
Monday and Tuesday. Shear will be quite strong, and the potential
for severe weather exists, although details are impossible to
determine with any skill that far in the future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

An upper level storm system will pass to the east of the TAF sites
by 06z, bringing an end to the light rain and decreasing clouds.
Light winds can be expected due to the weak pressure gradient.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  76  45  76 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  37  77  44  74 /  50   0   0   0
EHA  38  74  49  74 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  38  75  43  77 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  41  78  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  43  75  47  78 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Finch


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