Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 251133
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
633 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are encroaching SSF and should be at DRT shortly. Think
most of the other sites will remain VFR this morning, but MVFR could
side swipe SAT later. The cold front will move through the area early
this afternoon, shifting winds to the north with speeds around 15
knots. Latest runs of the high-res models have shifted the precip
east a bit and actually leave DRT mostly dry. The ultimate areas of
rainfall will be highly dependent on where activity develops and will
mention VCTS at all sites this afternoon but expect future fine
tuning to prevail thunder at some sites when it becomes apparent
where this will be. Dry air will slowly filter in after 00z with
clearing skies expected overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

UPDATE...
Patchy fog is spreading into our southeastern counties. We have
updated to include patchy fog this morning in the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the southeastern
US and a ridge over the west with northwesterly flow across Texas. At
the surface, a front was stretched across Texas north of our CWA from
Texarkana to Denton to San Angelo to Midland. Ahead of the front
winds were from the southeast across our forecast area. During this
period an upper level low will move out of the Central Plains to the
lower Mississippi River Valley bringing the frontal boundary through
our CWA. The front should be through our area by this evening and
move away overnight. This system will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms with the best chance across the western half of the
area. Some strong storms could form over the mountains in Mexico and
move across the Rio Grande this afternoon and evening. These storms
could produce large hail and strong winds. SPC has this area in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. A chance for rain will
linger tonight, but then drier air will move in on northerly winds
Thursday. Temperatures will also be down a few degrees Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level flow will remain northwesterly through Friday.
Another weak front will move through Friday, but there won`t be much
return moisture between the two fronts. So, this second front will
likely move through dry. The upper level flow will be essentially
zonal over the weekend and the weather will be dry. Models show
activity developing along the dryline Monday and Tuesday with chances
for thunderstorms moving across our CWA both days. Given model
performance over the past few weeks, we have reduced model POPs for
this period since we don`t have much confidence at that time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  51  79  55  79 /  20  30   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  50  79  52  78 /  20  30   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  52  79  53  79 /  30  30   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76  46  78  51  76 /  30  30   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  54  82  59  80 /  70  20   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  47  78  51  77 /  20  30   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             81  53  81  55  81 /  50  30   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  51  79  52  79 /  30  30   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  53  76  53  78 /  10  30   0  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  54  79  56  79 /  40  30   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           82  56  79  57  79 /  40  30   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...05


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