Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 171749
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions returned to the area airports and should remain in
place through the early night period. MVFR ceilings will then return
by daybreak before lifting once again in the mid-morning hours.
Otherwise, south/southeast winds will remain with speeds around 10 to
15 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

AVIATION...
Typical flying conditions expected with a pattern of early morning
MVFR CIGs mixing out to FEW VFR late morning, then redeveloping
overnight. Typical wind pattern at all sites. At the I-35 sites, S
winds 6 to 12 KTs in the morning back to SE 10 to 15 KTs with a few
gusts to 25 KTs in the afternoon, then veer to S 6 to 12 KTs at
night. At KDRT, SE winds prevail increasing to 15 KTS with a few
gusts to 25 KTs during the day, decreasing to 7 to 10 KTs at night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over the
southern part of the country and a trough over the west. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf making the winds
across our CWA southeasterly. Dewpoint temperatures were generally in
the lower 70s except along the Rio Grande where they were in the
middle to upper 60s. The subtropical ridge will remain in place over
Texas during this period. The low level flow will continue to be
southeasterly. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep the weather
dry through this period. Temperatures will be on the high side of
the normal range. The combination of hot temperatures and high
relative humidity will lead to a few places reaching heat index
values of 105 to 110 for a short time this afternoon. These places
will mainly be in the urban areas and south of I-35 and Hwy 90.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The hot and dry pattern will continue over the region through the
beginning of next week. There is no rain in the forecast with strong
subsidence continuing. The low level flow will continue from the
southeast and temperatures will continue in the warm part of the
normal range. The combination of hot temperatures and high
relative humidity will lead to a few places reaching heat index
values of 105 to 110 for a short time during the afternoons Thursday
and Friday. These places will mainly be in the urban areas and south
of I-35 and Hwy 90. The center of the upper ridge will drift to the
west during this period and by Monday it will be near the Four
Corners area. An upper trough will move across the Central
Mississippi Valley and bring a weak frontal boundary through North
Texas Monday night and through our CWA Tuesday. This solution is much
stronger in the GFS than the ECMWF and seems unrealistic for this
time of year. However, both models do produce precipitation across
our CWA Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  74  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  73  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            100  75 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  74  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  76  97  77  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway


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