Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
629 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Issued at 624 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Just completed an update. Based on the latest radar trends and
Hrrr which is catching reality well, made adjustments to the pops
for this evening. Higher pops needed to be pushed to north and
east a little faster. Winds are all over the place along with the
temperatures. Will take a look at the temperatures and winds when
things settle down a little more.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move out of northeast
Colorado and across northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska this
evening as shortwave trough ejects across the area, exiting to
the north by around 07z. Severe threat will be limited to about
04z, then wane as boundary layer cools. Primary hazard will be
wind gusts of up to 60 mph with favorable DCAPE environment/relatively
high bases, followed by a marginal threat of hail up to quarter
sized, and finally a low end risk for locally heavy rainfall.
Clouds will persist through the night with breezy north winds.
Lows will range from the upper 30s in Colorado to the lower 50s in
north central Kansas. Clouds will persist into Monday with perhaps
some partial clearing late in northern areas. As a result,
temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. North winds will be gusty and strongest in the morning,
then slowly diminish in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

While near term models show a decent amount of disagreement with
how southern plains H5 trough evolves, consensus still appears
that system will track well to the south of the area with only
slim chances of light precipitation glancing the southern CWA.
After system departs, medium range models in reasonable agreement
that ridging will build over the area through the weekend.
Differences emerge with the amplification and strength of the ridge,
with the GFS being a bit more amplified than other available

Regardless of preferred solution, seems like weather will be
fairly quiet from Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures slowly
warm, but surface flow does not look really favorable for any
meaningful moisture return until Thursday Night and Friday as sfc
high shifts east and strong southerly flow develops again. Should
we get enough moisture/instability development shear profile with
fast zonal flow would support some organized/severe storms, but
details at this point remain very unclear. Main forecast changes
to available guidance were to nudge temperatures to warmer end of
distribution/ensemble data, although potential for mountain cirrus
limiting insolation a bit concerning.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

For Kgld, a gust front is about to come through the site with a
reprieve before the winds come up again as the front comes
through. Vfr conditions are expected until 10z. Until 02z
northwest winds look to be near 25 knots with gusts to around 37
knots. At the same time light rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be in the area. At 02z some light rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be leaving the area with the wind
from the west at 15 knots. From 02z to 04z the winds shift to the
north at 10 knots and this will last until near 10z.

From 10z to 16z mvfr conditions and north winds near 20 knots with
gusts to 29 knots are expected. At 20z vfr conditions will return
as winds decrease to 18 knots without gusts.

For Kmck, northwest winds near 15 knots and vfr conditions are
expected until 14z. Isolated thunderstorms will be near the site
from 02z to 05z. From 14z to 19z mvfr conditions and north winds
near 20 knots with gusts to 28 knots will occur. At 19z vfr
conditions return with north winds of near 19 knots with gusts to
27 knots expected.




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