Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1029 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Convection has initiated on the Palmer Divide with daytime
heating and weak shortwave trough moving through the southern
Rockies. Models in good agreement that this activity will clip our
far southwestern counties later this afternoon and evening, from
Cheyenne County, Colorado, into Greeley and possibly Wichita
counties of northwest Kansas. However, the small thunderstorm
cluster makes little progress eastward and slowly dissipates along
the Kansas and Colorado border area through 06z. As a result,
have lowered/removed PoPs just about everywhere else. Cannot rule
out a hail/wind threat, mainly in Cheyenne County of Colorado,
then maybe a marginal wind threat further east this evening as
storms weaken. However, overall severe threat will be quite
limited. After 06z, precipitation will be done, leaving partly
cloudy skies, light winds and low temperatures reaching the 50s.

For Sunday, expecting mostly clear skies through the early
afternoon, then increasing clouds during the mid to late afternoon
from the northwest. Thunderstorms will develop in eastern Wyoming
and the Nebraska panhandle with the approach of the next
shortwave trough, reaching far northeast Colorado by late in the
afternoon, then southwest Nebraska and areas north of I70 in
northwest Kansas Sunday evening. SPC has placed a marginal risk in
those areas, but weak flow aloft will limit severe threat to just
isolated hail and wind. Highs on Sunday will be similar to today,
low to mid 80s, and lows Sunday night once again in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Synopsis... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the Tri-State area from Monday morning through late Tuesday
night. Rainfall totals over three-quarters of an inch are
expected and up to an inch or more of precipitation is possible.
With this in mind, flash flooding will be possible early next
week, especially on Tuesday for areas which observe repeated
showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday through early Thursday will
be drier, but the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase
Thursday and Friday in the afternoon and evening hours. A stray
shower of thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out Wednesday
afternoon, especially north or east of Goodland, but the chances
are low. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected into next
weekend across the Tri-State area. High temperatures will be in
the 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday under mostly cloudy skies
before warming up to the 80s Wednesday through Saturday with more
sunshine. Lows will generally be in the 50s throughout the
forecast period.

Discussion... A longwave upper-level trough over the western
United States will provide upper-level forcing for ascent and
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Tri-
State area Monday and Tuesday. Both days are expected to have
decent deep-layer shear on the order of 30 kts in addition to
decent instability with CAPE on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.
While widespread severe weather is not expected for either Monday
or Tuesday, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible
and an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at this
time. If severe weather occurs, the main threats would be damaging
winds and large hail. With prolonged chances for precipitation
and precipitable water values over an inch for both days, heavy
rain and subsequent flash flooding may be possible for areas which
observe showers and thunderstorms both days. If training showers
and thunderstorms develop, flash flooding potential may be the
greatest weather hazard for early next week.

By midday Wednesday, the upper-level trough will progress
eastward across the Midwest which will lead to decreased
precipitation potential for the Central High Plains. However, this
reprieve may be short-lived as a stronger upper-level longwave
trough begins to develop over the Pacific Northwest by Thursday.
More zonal upper- level flow over the Tri-State area will lead to
the development of some shortwave upper-level troughs which will
bring localized chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. This
next longwave trough will progress eastward toward the central
United States and bring increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the Tri- State area primarily in the evening
and overnight hours into the end of next week. Details are still
fuzzy pertaining to severe potential for the second half of next
week, so stay tuned to coming forecasts for more information.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Aside from a potential for isolated thunderstorms late Sunday
afternoon and evening (22Z Sun-04Z Mon), VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Light and
variable winds will persist overnight, becoming ESE-SE
and increasing to 10-15 knots late Sunday afternoon.




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