Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 222043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday]...
Nice, tranquil wx should continue through Wednesday. Winds will
gradually veer to the east and southeast as surface high pressure
moves away from the area.  47


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Surface high pressure over the south central CONUS is expected to
continue to push northeastward by Wednesday night, giving way to a
developing center of low pressure along the leeside of the Rocky
Mountains. Global models continue to disagree significantly
regarding the development of a surface cold front extending from
this feature as it moves into SE Texas this weekend. Both the NAM
and GFS solutions develop an upper trough over the central Plains,
which propagates rapidly to the east by Saturday afternoon. Onshore
flow at the surface quickly turns to the north/northeast as a
result, cutting off Gulf moisture advection and keeping a weak
coastal low offshore. Conversely, the ECMWF and Canadian solutions
produce a closed upper-level low which becomes cutoff over the TX
Panhandle and pushes much more slowly eastward through the region.
This allows for the onshore movement of the aforementioned weak low,
which brings with it increased precipitation coverage and intensity
on Friday and Saturday. While the most recent ECMWF run has sped
things up a bit, confidence in the weekend forecast remains fairly
low considering the widespread differences across guidance sources.
Current leanings are towards the slower ECMWF/Canadian solutions,
but low confidence will remain until a stronger consensus has been

Surface high pressure and relatively benign weather conditons look
to reenter the picture by next week, with highs in the mid 70s and
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected through Wednesday.



Moderate northeast winds will gradually veer to the east tonight
then east southeast on Wednesday. Will maintain current SCEC/SCA
configuaration offshore tonight...which may need to be extended

Increasing fetch of moderate e/se winds will drive tide levels
back up late night and persist into the remainder of the work week
until the next front pushes off the coast. Minor coastal flooding
is a possibility around each high tide cycle into Friday morning.
Building surf will also increase the risk of rip currents along
area beaches. Will be issuing a Beach Hazards Statement for
tonight and Wed morning to incorporate both for now. However,
this may eventually need to be upgraded to a Coastal Flood
Advisory later Wednesday and forward should the water levels
and coastal flood threat further increase.

Look for unsettled weather across the coastal waters Thursday
night into Friday ahead of the next storm system and associated
cold front. There is some uncertainty as to exactly when it will
push off the coast, but should be sometime between early Friday
morning or afternoon. Strong offshore winds can be expected in its
wake through Saturday.  47



College Station (CLL)  52  82  58  79  53 /   0   0   0  30  70
Houston (IAH)          52  80  61  78  59 /   0   0   0  20  60
Galveston (GLS)        66  80  72  78  65 /   0   0  10  30  80



GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.


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