Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Increasing SE to S winds today, and they could get gusty
especially this afternoon. Could see a cu field develop with
heating, but expect VFR to persist. Winds weaken a little this
evening and on through the overnight hours. Increasing cloud
cover and possible MVFR ceilings can be expected tomorrow along
with slightly stronger/gustier S to SSE winds.  42

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/


Another cool, quiet night will give way to a day with high
temperatures rising into the middle to upper 70s. Light and
variable winds will become onshore and more moderate through the
day, the beginning of a trend for increased humidity and warmer
temperatures into the weekend. Next week is likely to be more
active weather-wise, with higher chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Some mid to high clouds are passing across parts of the area very
early this morning, but otherwise it is clear, calm, and cool
across the area - but not quite as cool as the previous night.

Today, winds will begin light and variable, but onshore flow
should establish as the day goes on,and we may be looking at some
cumulus popping up this afternoon, at least to the southwest of
Houston around Matagorda Bay. Regardless, expect it to be sunny
enough for temperatures this afternoon to rise into the middle to
upper 70s and modestly more humid.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

As moisture continues to gradually work into the area tonight,
look for overnight lows to be a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
this morning`s lows. Along with that, temperatures Friday look to
be more around 80 degrees. Wash, rinse, and repeat Friday night
into Saturday, with lows a little bit warmer and highs moving a
little more into the 80s.

With precipitable water rising above an inch for Friday and to
near and above 1.25 inches for Saturday, and onshore flow likely
accompanied by gentle lift, we should see cloudiness increase over
the next couple of days at the very least. But, with SW/WSW flow
in the 700-850mb layer with warm air advection at the same time,
things may also become pretty well capped off. In fact, I went
ahead and nudged Friday and Saturday a little lower on the PoP
side, but also kept some sprinkles in the forecast to indicate
there may still be some potential of very light precip under the
cap. There`ll be some instability assuming the cap can be
broken...but there`s not a lot in the guidance right now to
indicate what may help that occur.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Saturday night into Sunday doesn`t look significantly different,
but modest changes may be enough to tweak things a little bit.
With humidity back in place, and a mid-level ridge overhead,
Saturday night`s lows will likely be quite summer-like. With
plenty of cloudiness expected, think highs will be held in check a
bit, but still should break 80 degrees. Low level flow looks to
back just a little bit, and cooling at 850 suggest a cap that may
be defeatable, so keep a slight chance of showers and storms in
place for Sunday.

However, more significant changes are on tap for a bit deeper into
the weekend. In general, there`s pretty good agreement in the
guidance for a deep, upper trough to work to the Rocky Mountains
inducing lee cyclogenesis over Colorado, which will then track up
to the Great Lakes into the mid-week. This will drape a cold front
back into Texas, and...this is roughly where agreement in the
models begins to break down. The GFS is a bit more progressive
than the Euro, but eventually as the upper trough rotates through
late in the week, there is agreement in finally pushing the front
fully across the area. Since the broad idea is pretty similar, and
many of the drivers on the nuances for our sensible weather is
frustratingly unpredictable at this range, and honestly, the GFS
and Euro are playing to their stereotypes here, the forecast is
roughly a blend of the suite of guidance. There is a bit of a lean
towards the Euro here for continuity with the previous forecast
and a nod towards its general higher reliability, but the Cliffs
on this is for a more active period next week, with chances of
showers and storms on any given day higher than climo.

Temperature-wise, as we look at the upper ridge getting shoved off
ending subsidence, cloudiness, and higher rain chances, do trend
highs a bit downward and generally smaller diurnal ranges. Don`t
really look for lows to drop until the front is finally pushed
through and some drier air works in.


With high pressure now off to the east, onshore winds
will be returning to the area today and will be
strengthening through the end of the week and into
the weekend. Seas will be on the rise too, and the
combination of increasing winds and building seas will
likely lead to caution flags (could happen as early as
this afternoon or tonight) and possible advisory flags
(at the end of the week and into the first part of the
weekend). Conditions do not get any better during the
first half of next week as the pressure gradient gets
even tighter resulting in stronger onshore winds and
rough seas. Advisories will likely be needed.
The current forecast has the area`s next cold front
moving off the coast around a week from today. 42


College Station (CLL)      77  57  81  65  82 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  58  79  66  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            71  64  74  69  75 /   0   0  10  10  10



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