Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 231459

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Only change on the morning update was to extend low rain chances a little
further eastward based on radar images and surface observations. Model
soundings are still showing a decent cap in place across much of the
area, so think a majority of the echoes on radar are just light rain
when they manage to make it to the ground. Cannot totally rule out a
lightning strike or two, but is has been several hours since we`ve seen
one. Will keep an eye on trends and make forecast adjustments if needed.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

Not too many changes planned with the upcoming forecast as we are
still looking for increasing rain chances the next couple of days
out ahead of and with the passage of a strong upper trof from the
west. The highest chances for precipitation...and possibly severe
weather for SE TX will be from Weds evening on through early Thur

Isolated showers/thunderstorms developing out to the W/SW are ex-
pected to impact western portions of the CWFA later this morning.
These storms appear to be courtesy of an embedded disturbance (in
the SW flow aloft) moving up from under the main upper trof still
out west. The activity should move out to the E/NE by this after-
noon with warm/humid conditions continuing. Did keep with slight-
ly lower POPS for tonight as models as not indicating much by way
of short-wave energy, but would not be too surprised if there was
some very isolated WAA-type showers overnight/early Weds morning.

The main forecast focus looks to be the aforementioned time frame
from Weds evening through early Thur morning. A line of strong to
possibly severe storms developing over SouthCentral TX during the
afternoon on Weds is expected to move into SE TX by that evening.
While the track of this vigorous positively tilted upper low will
be just to our north, a favorable location of the southern stream
jet along with the increased PWs and steep lapse rates are point-
ing to the continued development of strong/possibly severe storms
as this line moves across the CWA. Hail and strong damaging winds
look to be the primary threat. We`ll also likely see fairly wide-
spread rainfall with this system. Rain totals should average from
1/2 to 1 inch with isolated totals of 2 to 4 inches possible with
training storms.

Drier/slightly cooler weather will be on tap for Fri (in the wake
of the associated front), but we could see some rather warm temp-
eratures for the weekend. Progs of a deep SW flow at the lower to
mid levels are hinting at highs of mid and possibly upper 80s for
this time period. 41

The southeasterly flow will continue today and will be fluctuating
between 12-14 knots early this morning increasing to 13-17z late
this morning and afternoon. SCEC was already in effect and have
extended it through early evening. Winds should be increasing this
afternoon and with seas already 4-6 feet early may see a brief
decrease before responding to the increased winds this afternoon. As
the upper trough approaches and winds back slightly will like see an
increase in tide levels Wednesday. Rain chances for the coastal
waters increasing throughout the day Wednesday with slightly
stronger winds in the western waters. Gusty southerly winds ahead of
the cold front Wednesday night/Thursday morning with the cold front
pushing off the coast Thursday morning. Could see some strong
thunderstorms with the frontal passage. Winds in the wake of the
front look to be primarily moderate westerly until early Friday
morning and may reach SCA early Friday as cooler air arrives and
pressures fall over the Coastal Waters of Louisiana. Light and
variable winds Friday night/Saturday morning.


Mix of MVFR/IFR/VFR ceilings across the area with these spreading
further north early this morning. The lowering trend should come to
an end around 13-14z and with the warming start to rise. A
disturbance coming in from the southwest has helped to develop a
couple of thunderstorms near VCT with the steering flow bringing
them northeast. A few of the HRRR runs indicated these could show
some life becoming a little more organized around 14-16z with
possible impacts for SGR/HOU/LBX area - will be keeping a close eye
on these and may be adding VCTS to these for a few hours this
morning. VFR ceilings this afternoon but these should be short lived
as ceilings lower to MVFR by early evening and some IFR will be
possible after midnight. Thursday 03-12z thunderstorms across the
Metro terminals.


College Station (CLL)      79  64  77  62  75 /  30  20  70  90  30
Houston (IAH)              79  65  79  65  78 /  20  10  40  90  40
Galveston (GLS)            77  69  77  68  76 /  20  10  20  90  40


GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


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