Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 211910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
210 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

After a cool and, in some cases foggy, start this morning, high
pressure has allowed for a seasonable and sunny day. Temperatures
across the area are in the upper 60s to mid 70s. RH values are
crashing into the 20-40 percent range as well, though winds are

Clear and more seasonable conditions are expected overnight with the
high pressure remaining the most prominent feature. Low temperatures
are expected to be about 10 degrees warmer than last night. Fog
coverage and density should be lower than last night with relatively
higher dewpoint depressions, but fog is possible again especially
near the lakes and rivers.

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will continue to be the
main players through Tuesday, as a trough develops over the SW CONUS.
Low- level winds will become more S to SWly, and temperatures will
rebound to slightly above normal. Blended guidance looks good here
and has largely been adopted with little adjustment.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

The trough over the SW CONUS will slowly progress east Wednesday
into Thursday, leading to the only rain chance for the forecast
period. A few initial showers and storms can`t be ruled out Tuesday
night or Wednesday, but most of the forcing is expected to stay north
of the area. The main PoPs are expected Thursday afternoon into most
of Friday as the trough crosses into the Mississippi Valley. However,
further timing shifts are possible given the nature of the trough.

There is a non-zero severe weather threat with this system. None of
the ensemble members show an overly strong or developed trough, but
there is perhaps a modest low-level jet and modest instability. At
least for now, these elements suggest the possibility of a strong
storm or two and not much more.

Showers and storms will linger mainly into early Friday as the
trough exits into the Atlantic, with ridging expected to resume for
the weekend.

Temperatures should remain seasonable, and blended guidance looks


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

VFR conditions with light and variable winds are expected through
18Z/22. There is some indication of potential fog or low cloud
development at KMSL from roughly 07-08Z to 12Z; however, confidence
is too low to include in the TAF at this time.





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