Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 160538
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

No significant changes are required to tonight`s forecast. We will
monitor satellite trends for sky coverage. However, the high clouds
in TN are being sheared more than moving southeast into our area, so
hesitate to increase the opaque coverage too much at this point.
Moist south flow will continue to advect higher dew points into the
region overnight. This should ensure lows staying in the u60s-l70s
for most central and western counties. A few eastern valleys may yet
slip into the lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

The benign, dry pattern we`ve been in will begin to change on Sunday
an upper shortwave trough begins to amplify across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. This feature will help to reinvigorate a complex
of storms over the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley that will slowly
approach the area. While this storm complex will remain displaced to
the northwest of our region, it may produce a cold pool/outflow that
could make it into the area later in the day. Any mesoscale
boundaries and the combination of deeper moisture filtering into the
Tennessee Valley (low 70s dewpoints) and a weaker cap will allow for
at least widely scattered convection (mainly during the afternoon).
Models continue to indicate coverage will be somewhat lower on
Sunday, likely due to the fact that the best forcing will remain to
the northwest of the area. Thus, the stronger southerly flow and
partial sunshine will help make Sunday the warmest day of the week as
highs peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. These temperatures,
combined with the higher RH values, will help push heat indices into
the mid to upper 90s for the Father`s Day holiday. An important
reminder if you have outdoor plans -- it`s going to feel hot and
humid!

Sunday night into Monday, the ridge will continue to slip further to
the south and east, enhancing southwest flow and moisture transport
into the area -- thanks to a stronger pressure gradient due to an
approaching shortwave trough. This feature will clip the area Monday
afternoon, providing some additional lift for scattered to perhaps
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Early day heating will allow for
some good destabilization, as we`ll be looking at SBCAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg by 21z Monday. Despite this, shear values will be far
too low to allow for storm organization so would expect pulse
activity to be the rule for Monday, with a few strong storms
possible. PWATs will approach 1.8" per the KHSV NAM sounding, meaning
locally heavy downpours will be the main concern with this activity.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

As the ridge sinks to the southeast, much of the Deep South region
will enter a period of zonal flow aloft for the remainder of the
upcoming week. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day, especially in the afternoon. The best
coverage may occur on Tuesday as the base of an upper-trough swings
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. This feature will provide
stronger forcing and would expect higher coverage in convection for
this reason. The cloud cover and precipitation will also lower highs
back into the lower 80s.

More scattered convection may be in the cards for Wednesday before
the next wave of energy moves across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday, producing another round of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Continued cloudy and slightly "cooler" temperatures
are expected through this part of the forecast. Models hint at
slightly drier conditions late in the week as an upper-ridge looks to
slide east from Texas into the Deep South region. With plenty of
moisture underneath this ridge, expect at least widely scattered
thunderstorm chances to continue, along with mid to upper 80s
temperatures and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

VFR flight weather conditions are expected at this time through the
period. Scattered lower clouds (~025agl) may develop by 10Z, but not
expecting ceilings at this time. Scattered cumulus will develop and
lift to ~040agl by 16Z. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during
peak afternoon heating, but the probability is too low to include.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...AMP.24
LONG TERM...AMP.24
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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