Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 160235

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1035 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Water vapor imagery highlights a mid-upper level ridge centered
over the extreme Western Caribbean. A large TUTT axis reaches
south over Puerto Rico into the central Caribbean. Low level
ridging centered near Bermuda is fractured over Florida, and
reconstitutes as an anticyclone over the north-central Gulf of

This evening`s KKEY RAOB sampled a post-rain environment. An onion
bulb of stabilized BL air gives way to west-northwesterlies aloft.
It`s hard to determine if these winds aloft paint the northern
flank of the mid-upper level ridge, or the southwestern flank of a
developing weakness. Nevertheless, mesoscale interactions across
the Florida Keys, South Florida, and the Bahamas have flourished
over the past few days. Plentiful columnar moisture, combined with
moderate instability and weak inhibition has allowed multiple
rounds of showers and storms to impact the island chain each day.
Tonight we will look for moisture convergence along the surging
east- southeasterlies (~10 to 15 knots). The 10 knot surge last
night converged north of the island chain, and no island
communities experienced precipitation after midnight.
Nevertheless, we will stick with the mental model and retain the
50% rain chances overnight. The forecast is on track and needs no


High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic during the
next several days. Moderate breezes tonight through Monday night
will diminish on Tuesday. These enhanced breezes will tend to peak
overnight and lull each afternoon.


VFR conditions expected for the overnight for both terminals,
though brief periods of MVFR conditions will be possible with any
shower re- development. Hi-resolution models continue to depict
scattered showers moving across the island chain after 06Z
tonight. Winds will also pick up and shift to the southeast AOA 10


Key West  79  88  80  89 / 60 60 60 50
Marathon  79  94  80  95 / 60 60 60 50




Data Collection......SD

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