Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 211126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019


Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019/


We are finally in a pretty quiet weather pattern for Spring. Over
the next 7 days we are looking at only one potential system
impacting the Midsouth, expected Wednesday into Thursday.
Otherwise dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures
are expected.

Early morning temperatures range from the upper 30s near the
Tennessee River to the low 50s near Memphis southward through the
Mississippi River Delta. Morning lows will likely range from the
Upper 30s to upper 40s. Skies should be clear for any Sunrise
Easter services or other outdoor events. Winds will be light, from
the South.

Abundant sunshine and weak South wind will result in quick warming
today. Temperatures by midday should be in the low 70s with
afternoon highs in the middle to upper 70s.

A ridge aloft and surface high pressure over the Southeastern US
will keep conditions dry across the Midsouth through at least
Wednesday Morning. During the early to middle part of the work
week a deep low will strengthen over the Southwestern US setting
up Southwest flow across Texas and across the lower and middle
Mississippi River Valley. Guidance is in better agreement with
this system, bringing a cutoff low across East Texas early
Thursday then across North Louisiana and across the Central or
South Mississippi by early Friday. A weak surface low is expected
to be vertically stacked which is certainly not the most favorable
setup for strong to severe thunderstorms. With this track and
vertical structure, any enhanced convective activity would most
likely be well to our South. Expect just rain with embedded weak
thunderstorms as early as midday Wednesday, continuing through
Thursday, tapering off to just light rain or drizzle Thursday
night. Will wait one or two more model runs to get some temporal
consistency before selecting a period or two to ramp up pops. At
least an inch of rain is likely a safe bet late Wednesday
through Thursday night.

Temperatures should be slightly cooler after midweek, but still
near to slightly above normal. Dry conditions should return Friday
and look to continue through next weekend.



12z TAFs

VFR conds to persist through the period. Southerly winds this
afternoon between 6 and 10 kts...diminishing after sundown. Winds
at MEM will likely stay above the FedEx 7kt threshold throughout
much of the afternoon hours.




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