Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 201439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
939 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Convection has moved off to the east this morning, leaving the
Mid-South rather dry at the moment. Cloud cover will linger across
west TN this morning, but most of the CWA is under clear skies. A
Cu field is expected to develop by midday area wide. The shortwave
trough associated with the overnight storm complex is moving east
across the Ohio Valley and large scale subsidence is observed in
its wake over the Mid-South.

This subsidence and resultant warming in the 850-700mb level will
suppress convective initiation across much of the area this
afternoon. However, given the continued moist, unstable
environment, we do think isolated to scattered storms will be
possible this afternoon, mainly across the TN Valley. That said,
coverage will be limited and storms are expected to be well-
behaved. Max temperatures were warmed a degree or to along/west of
the MS River, PoPs were reduced, and cloud cover was reduced
through today. Other changes to the forecast were minimal.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/

Models in good agreement through much of the period. Of course the
unsettled weather continues as areas to the north of the Mid-South
continue to have frontal systems move through and the Mid-South
attempts to move into a summer pattern, yet the interaction with
the frontal systems causes enough instability that there may be
showers or thunderstorms most days of the forecast.

The showers and thunderstorms moving across the Mid-South
currently are associated with an upper level trough that will push
east of the area by this afternoon bringing northwest flow aloft.
By Friday an upper level ridge will move into the area and push
east by Saturday. Then a return to southwest flow aloft for the
rest of the period.

As the upper level trough moves east it takes with it a surface
front and places the Mid-South on the western each of a surface
high pressure that will bring in lots of moisture to the
atmosphere and warmer temperatures. So on Friday and Saturday many
parts of the Mid-South will have heat index values over 100
degrees. Friday looks worse than Saturday. A weak frontal system
will move across the Mid-South on Monday and Monday night which
will allow for a cooling of temperatures, however, also will bring
a good chance for some heavy rain.

The rest of the forecast will be more summer like with highs near
90 and a some chance of rain.


/12z TAFs/

After a few remnant showers from overnight convection for the
first couple of hours of the period, VFR conditions will prevail
the entire period. Westerly winds will become more southerly
this evening as CIGs decrease. Winds will be light to calm
overnight before picking up with potential gusts by tomorrow
afternoon as a pressure gradient increases over the region.





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