Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 242348

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N13W to near
03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 04S31W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded
isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-06S between
19W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the
monsoon trough from 04N-01S between 18W-08W.


A digging mid-upper level trough is causing upper level
diffluence and divergence across the NW Gulf of Mexico ahead of a
low pressure system bringing a strong cold front across the
southern Plains. This is causing scattered showers across most of
the Gulf with the exception of the southern portion of the basin.
At the surface, a 1019 mb high located in the western Atlantic is
causing ridging across the eastern Gulf. Ahead of the low pressure
system in the southern Plains, moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds are seen in the western basin with light to gentle east-
southerly winds are in the eastern Gulf.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will shift eastward ahead of
a cold front moving off the Texas coast Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms will accompany the front as it shifts east early
Friday. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong, with gusty
winds and frequent lightning. The front will become stationary
from west central Florida to northeast Yucatan by late Friday.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front over the
northern Gulf coast through Sunday as the front gradually
dissipates by early next week.


Moist air with some showers are seen across the southeast
Caribbean particularly along the Windward Islands. Low-topped
showers are seen across the Leeward Islands and the Greater
Antilles. The western portion of the basin has calm conditions.
Light to gentle trades are seen across most of the Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate northeasterly winds in the NW Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central and
eastern Caribbean will slowly diminish into Sunday as high
pressure north of the area weakens. Trade winds will increase
again early next week as the high pressure builds again north of
the region.


A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 30N74W with a
surface trough to the east of the high, stretching from near
31N66W to the SE Bahamas. A 1014 mb low is still lingering across
the central Atlantic near 30N57W with a surface trough extending
along the low from 31N60W to 31N49W. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms are seen 185 nm south of this low. Another surface
trough is seen from near 24N42W stretching southwestward to near
13N57W. Scattered showers are seen to the west of this trough.

A surface trough in the western Atlantic will dissipate
overnight. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida
from Thursday night and Friday ahead of a cold front moving off
the coast Friday evening. The front will move east and stall from
Bermuda to the northern Florida Keys by late Saturday, then
dissipate as it moves slowly northward through early next week.

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