Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 231946
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as a cold front moves south through the region. The
cold front will then stall near the Ohio River by Friday
morning. This front will slowly move back to the northeast as a
warm front Friday afternoon into Friday night. The upcoming
Memorial Day Weekend will be warm and humid with chances for
showers and thunderstorms increasing through the period as
another cold front slowly moves south toward the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak disturbance in the zonal mid level flow aloft will
combine with a southward moving cold front to bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the southern CWFA into this
evening. Moderate bulk shear and moderate instability will favor
a few storms to become severe with damaging winds and large
hail the primary severe weather threats. However, decent low
level SRH may allow some storms to rotate, posing an isolated
threat for a tornado.

As the disturbance moves east later this evening, coverage
should wane, and will then only leave a low chance of showers
and thunderstorms with the boundary as it settles south of the
Ohio River. By late tonight, weak return flow above the western
part of the boundary may induce a shower/storm toward morning.

Skies will clear north, with skies becoming partly cloudy south.
Drier, cooler air will allow temperatures across the north to
drop into the mid 50s to the lower 60s. More humid air will
linger along and south of the Ohio River where lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Another disturbance may ride a slowly building mid level ridge
into the Ohio Valley Friday morning. This feature, along with
weak return flow up and over former boundary which should be
laying west to east near the Ohio River Friday morning, may keep
a chance of a shower/storm going across the southern/western
CWFA. As the day wears on, we will lose the weak overrunning
forcing as the boundary begins to move northeast as a warm
front. Chances for showers/storms may wane by late in the day
across the west as mixing and weak forcing do not provide a
favorable environment for sustained convection. The boundary
slicing across the region, highs will vary. They will range from
the mid 70s north to the mid 80s southwest.

For Friday night, the warm front will slowly move northeast
through the remainder of our area. Can not rule out a small
chance of a shower/storms (10 percent), but this will result in
a dry worded forecast given the small chance. Skies will be
partly cloudy. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather pattern this weekend with a front oscillating through
the area. Chances for thunderstorms will continue Saturday around
the periphery of the mid level ridge. The best chance looks to be
across ILN/s northern counties closer to the frontal boundary.
Warm temperatures to continue with high temperatures Saturday from
the mid 80s north to the upper 80s south.

A better threat for storms continues to be focused on Sunday as the
northern portions of the mid level ridge flatten and the surface
front sags back south into the Ohio Valley. Sundays high
temperatures look to range from near 80 north to the mid/upper 80s
south.

The mid level ridge builds over the area Monday with the front
lifting back north as a warm front, keeping the threat for
thunderstorms in the forecast. Generally, expect highs of 80 to 85
on Monday.

Model solutions in a little better agreement with the mid level
ridge in place and surface front positioned to our north across the
southern Great Lakes Tuesday. This should work to limit pcpn chances
but can not rule out isold activity in the warm sector. Expect warm
readings with Tuesdays highs from the lower/mid 80s north to near
90 far south.

Although timing differences exist - regarding mid week frontal
passage - models are generally in better agreement with the front
coming thru late Wednesday/early Thursday. Moisture and instability
increase Wednesday ahead of this front as mid level ridge shifts
east and the flow backs. Will allow pops to increase to likely
during the day. Temperatures will depend on front/pcpn timing - with
highs expected to range from the upper 70s northwest to the upper
80s southeast.

Westerly mid level flow develops with initial frontal passage
followed by a secondary front. This will keep a low pop chance of a
shower or thunderstorm Thursday. Temperatures to turn cooler with
Thursdays highs from the mid 70s northwest to 80 southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move southeast into our region this afternoon
and evening. An embedded disturbance in the mid level flow aloft
will combine with the advancing front and diurnal instability to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Activity is expected
to wane this evening. VCTS/CB has been placed at all sites for a
period except KDAY. Brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities can
be expected with storms.

For the overnight period, although the front will eventually lay
out west to east along the Ohio River, weak return flow aloft
will occur up and over the boundary late. This will bring a low
chance of a shower/storm west of KCVG/KLUK late.

On Friday, a mid level ridge will slowly build northward into
the Ohio Valley. Old frontal boundary will slowly pivot
northeast as a warm front during the day. There could be a low
chance of a shower/storm across the western forecast area
through early afternoon near the advancing boundary. Thereafter,
mixing may reduce the weak ascent, allowing convection to wane,
despite peak heating.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hickman


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