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000
FXUS61 KILN 040541
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
141 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent high pressure will allow dry weather through
Wednesday. The threat for showers and a few thunderstorms returns
Thursday and Friday along a cold front. Much cooler weather can
be expected for the weekend behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clear skies will be found overnight with some valley fog
expected to develop before daybreak.

Under light winds, lows will drop to within a few degrees of
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High cloud cover will begin to stream in from the west on
Wednesday, thickening to an overcast layer overnight.

Highs will be near 85 degrees with mostly sunny skies and light
southerly wind.

Overnight lows will bump 3-5 degrees higher from tonight`s
values. Readings will range from the low 60s in the Scioto
Valley and Hocking Hills, to the mid 60s over west central Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A major pattern shift is on tap for the region as we progress
into the long term period, the beginning of which will arrive in
the form of scattered SHRA through the day on Thursday ahead of
a slow-moving frontal boundary, which will eventually work its
way through the area during the daytime on Friday.

For Thursday, broad deep-layer SW flow will become established
in the OH Vly as a midlevel disturbance translates to the NE
within this flow stretching from the lower MS Rvr Vly through
the Great Lakes region. Although the airmass will initially be
relatively dry, moisture advection will be well underway through
the afternoon/evening. This, combined with larger-scale ascent,
should promote the development of fairly widespread SHRA
activity, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, too. Do think that
the thunder chances are relatively low (if they evolve at all)
at this juncture, but have maintained slight chance of TSRA
across EC IN and WC OH Thursday afternoon/evening for now. But
given trends and sounding analysis from a variety of solutions,
thunder should be fairly limited in coverage locally. This holds
true, too, for SE parts of the area Friday afternoon, owing to
meager LL/deeper-layer instby.

Coverage of SHRA should be fairly widespread during the day
Thursday into Thursday night, continuing in at least a scattered
fashion into the day on Friday, especially for locales near/E
of I-71 ahead of the front. And until that front finally moves
through, above normal temps will continue (despite the
widespread clouds/pcpn). Highs on Thursday should reach into the
mid/upper 70s (W) and even lower 80s (E) before falling into
the upper 50s and lower 60s by Friday morning. Although there
are some timing differences to be worked out, with the front
near the I-71 corridor by early afternoon Friday, NE KY and
south-central OH should reach into the mid 70s, with cooler air
already filtering in back to the W in EC IN and WC OH where
highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Fairly robust CAA
should evolve Friday evening/night everywhere as temps dip into
the upper 40s and lower 50s by daybreak Saturday.

An extended period of below normal temps is expected Saturday
through early next week as the tremendously large/deep low
pressure (~ -2.5 sigma) meanders about the ern Great Lakes
region and interior NE CONUS. Ensemble and deterministic data
has trended perhaps to a slightly deeper/further W solution with
this lumbering low for the weekend into early next week, which
would act to not only keep the cooler/chillier air around for a
bit longer, but would also likely translate to a cloudier
weekend/early next week, depending on the exact positioning of
the low. Nevertheless, strong/deep-layer NW flow off the lakes
should, at the very least, keep clouds and perhaps a daily
chance for a few SHRA in the fcst through the weekend. Breezy
conditions are on tap for Friday and Saturday due to steepening
LL lapse rates and more robust vertical mixing in the LLs. Gusts
to 20-25kts are expected both Friday and Saturday
afternoon/evenings.

Should winds relax and skies clear enough Sunday or Monday
morning, some patchy frost may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge axis will shift east today with the flow backing
southwesterly tonight. A southerly low level flow will exit on
the backside of sprawling surface high pressure along the east
coast. Mostly clear skies overnight with some valley fog
likely at KLUK this morning.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast with an increase in high
level clouds tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibility possible Thursday night
into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...AR