Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230542
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
142 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move south through the Ohio
Valley this evening. High pressure will build into the Great
Lakes and northern Ohio Valley Friday, bringing drier and cooler
weather this weekend. Moisture will make a return northward
into the area late Sunday and into Monday as winds turn
southeast, bringing the next chance for rain on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold front is in northern sections of the CWA running from near
Richmond IN to Bellefontaine to Mansfield, though the wind shift
to northwest has been south of the Ohio River and rest of CWA
for several hours. Dewpoints in the lower 60s behind the front
will continue to lower overnight, and readings will range from
the upper 50s in the northwest to the mid 60s along and south of
the Ohio River. Some mid 50s may be present north of a Celina-
Wapakoneta-Kenton line by daybreak, especially if skies clear.

Cloud cover will hold tough overnight for most areas but could
clear in the north and see some scattering out well northwest
of the I-71 corridor.

Given the extensive cloud cover today, convective temperatures
were nowhere near being met and lapse rates were hardly able to
support but a few lightning strikes in the CWA after this
morning`s round of weather. Have pared back the chances of
showers - scattered more than likely, and only indicated a
slight chance of a thunderstorm through daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Any precipitation chances in the southern sections of the
forecast area should be on their way out by early to mid
afternoon. A sprawling area of surface high pressure will be
centered over northern Ontario by Friday evening, controlling an
air mass that will extend clear through the ILN CWA by the
overnight hours going into Saturday morning. This air mass will
be characterized by dew points falling well into the 50s,
clearing skies, and cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure, centered north of the Great Lakes, will bring a
dry start to the extended on Saturday. Highs will be slightly
below normal, ranging between 75 and 80 degrees.

As the high slips off into New England on Sunday, temperatures
will begin to warm. Humidity will also be on the increase
Sunday. The GFS is the quickest in bringing QPF back into the
region, lifting it into the Tri-State after 18Z. Went with the
slower consensus and kept Sunday dry.

Southerly flow on the backside of the high, will bring in a
more humid and unstable airmass for next week. H5 s/w will eject
out through the region Sunday night through early next Week.
This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night
through Tuesday. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower
to mid 80s.

Weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday providing a
temporary dry out, but then an approaching cold front will bring
another chance of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A corridor of scattered showers stretching from southeastern IN
through south-central OH will continue to fill in and increase
in coverage through the first several hours of the TAF period,
with TEMPO -SHRA added into the fcst for KCVG, KLUK, and KILN
between now and sunrise. The best coverage of activity will
gradually shift south/east by/past 12z, with KILN likely to see
a trend toward drier conditions by sunrise and KCVG and KLUK not
far behind. Some MVFR or even IFR CIGs cannot be completely
ruled out for southern sites through mid-morning while northern
sites remain VFR and trend toward clearer skies past 12z.

Light northeasterly winds will pick up to around 10kts during
the afternoon hours before subsiding once again near/past 00z.
Cloud cover will shift southeast through the day, with even KCVG
and KLUK likely to see only SCT clouds by the afternoon. A
trend toward SKC with just a few cirrus possible will evolve
past 00z area-wide. Tranquil weather conditions are anticipated
for the final part of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...KC


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