Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 101956
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight. High
pressure will then prevail through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Short wave will slide across the southern Great Lakes tonight.
This will force a weak cold front across the area. There will be
an increase in clouds and perhaps some light showers across
northern counties. Clear out in west central Ohio before
daybreak, but expect that to be too late for temperatures to
fall enough for frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Remaining post frontal clouds will clear Tuesday morning as high
pressure builds in. A short wave passing across the region will
bring some additional mid to high clouds through the area in the
afternoon, but these will clear out during the evening. With
cool airmass remaining and winds becoming light, there will be
the potential for frost again across much of the forecast area
by late Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to build down into the Ohio
Valley through mid week and then remain across the region through
the end of the week. A weak mid level trough will move across the
Tennessee Valley Thursday into Thursday night which could lead to a
few showers across our southeast. However, with a relatively dry
airmass in place and the GEFS/EC ensembles keeping the better
chances for pcpn off to our southeast, will maintain a dry forecast
for our area. Temperatures will remain below normal through the
week, although we will see a very gradual warming trend each day as
the airmass slowly modifies, with highs by Saturday into the upper
60s to possibly lower 70s.

The surface high will shift off to the east through the weekend as
we transition to more of a zonal flow pattern aloft. This will allow
for some mid level energy to overspread the region from the west.
The models are suggesting a warm frontal boundary may possibly
develop into our area Sunday into Monday so will continue with a
chance of showers for early next week. We should continue to
gradually warm with highs on Sunday in the lower 70s and the mid 70s
for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Few to scattered
cumulus will continue to occur during the early part of the
forecast. There will be a broken deck will spread in, mainly
after 06Z. There could be a few showers from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK
but probability is low at this point. Clouds will scatter late
in the period. Winds will be less than 10 kt, generally out of
the north or northwest.

.OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...


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