Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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883
FXUS61 KILN 241949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly move through the region through
the day on Thursday. High pressure and dry conditions are
expected for Thursday night through Saturday. An unsettled
weather pattern will be in place for Sunday into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A boundary will continue to sag through the area through the
near term. A few strong to severe storms will continue to be
possible into the evening hours. There will be some activity
that continues into the overnight hours. Where there are some
breaks in the activity and cloud cover, cannot rule out some
fog. Confidence in a specific area was not high enough to add to
the forecast at this time. Low temperatures overnight will drop
down into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday close to the frontal boundary. The greatest coverage is
expected to be near and south of the Ohio River. Any
precipitation will taper off by evening as the front continues
to push out of the region. High pressure and dry conditions
will then work into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwest mid and upper level flow develops at the end of the week
with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes Friday
and Saturday offering dry weather conditions.

Mid level ridge axis builds into the region later Saturday and then
quickly shifts off to the east Sunday into early next week. The
surface high will also shift to the east, leading to a broad
low level southerly flow early next week.

Moisture and instability increase Sunday as a mid level disturbance
rides up the back side of the ridge which will result in a chance of
showers and thunderstorms returning Sunday.

Mid level shortwave lifts thru the Great Lakes on Monday which looks
to be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms in the next
week.

A second shortwave tracks east thru the Great Lakes Tuesday offering
a continued threat for showers/thunderstorms. This threat continues
into Wednesday. Model solution differences continue to be observed
regarding the strength of the troughs that come thru the area early
next week. Have confidence that Monday into Tuesday will be an
unsettled period but exact details are uncertain at this time frame.

Highs on Friday will be 80 to 85 or slightly below normal. A warming
trend will ensue with highs in the middle to upper 80s Saturday and
Sunday, and Monday, and then in the upper 80s to around 90 on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday
night will rise thru the period with upper 60s to around 70 expected
Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A boundary will continue to sag through the region through the
TAF period. This will allow for multiple rounds of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Timed into the TAFs the best chances
for precipitation and thunder chances. Convection is not going
to be organized enough to put in TSRA at any one time and
therefore handled with SHRA VCTS at this time. There will be the
chance the locations overnight will see some breaks in the
precipitation and showers at times and if so then will see the
potential for some fog with light flow. Additional precipitation
will be possible on Thursday until the front clears the region.
CAA cu will be possible, especially Thursday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...