Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 190022
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
822 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will taper off this evening with decreasing clouds
overnight. Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday
along with more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Scattered to numerous light snow showers will continue across
the area through the rest of the afternoon. These will begin to
dissipate heading into this evening as we lose the diurnal
component and the low level flow begins to back around more to
the west. This will also allow for a clearing trend for later
this evening and into tonight. It will be a cold night with
overnight lows in the low to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Some mid level energy will move across the region through the
day on Tuesday in progressive northwest flow aloft. This will
help push a cold front southeast into our area through Tuesday
night. Ahead of this, a tightening pressure gradient will lead
to increasing southwest winds. With good mixing, some wind
gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible from late
morning and into the afternoon Tuesday. This will lead to some
decent drying through the day with RHs dropping down into the
low to mid 20s through the afternoon. This could lead to some
increased fire concerns during the day on Tuesday. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s with lows Tuesday night
in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longwave trough over eastern North America persists Wednesday into
Thursday. This will help to maintain cooler air over the region.
Breezy conditions are forecast on Wednesday behind a dry cold front
that passes through the area Tuesday night. Even cooler air arrives
Wednesday night into the Thursday as surface high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Can`t rule out a few
areas reaching the upper teens Wednesday night.

Mid-level flow becomes more zonal Thursday night into Friday as the
longwave trough ejects northeastward for a brief period. This will
allow for a closed low moving through the southeast CONUS to move
northeastward into the Ohio Valley. In combination with a shortwave
moving through the northern Plains, precipitation will spread over
the area Friday morning through the day. Given the cooler air in
place, can`t rule out some mixed precipitation across far northern
locations during the onset of precipitation. Otherwise, warm air
advection in the lower levels will help melt any snow/ice pellets
before reaching the ground.

The longwave trough fails to become firmly established over the
weekend so temperatures are currently forecast to be near normal. A
more significant change in the longwave pattern is possible next
week with general troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over
the eastern CONUS. This would support additional chances for rain
and warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Longwave mid level trof has pivoted thru the region leaving
northwest flow. Favorable low level flow off Lake Michigan and
steep low level lapse rates led to widespread snow showers
this afternoon. With loss of daytime heating the snow shower
activity has shown a decreasing trends. This trend will continue
thru this evening with skies becoming mostly clear overnight
with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the TAF
period.

Gusty northwest winds will back southwest and decrease to
generally 10 kts or or less overnight. Southwest winds will
increase through the day Tuesday with wind gusts in the 30 to
35 knot range possible Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...AR


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