Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 240527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
127 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Tuesday,
leading to dry conditions and a warming trend. A series of
upper level disturbances will then bring occasional showers and
a chance of thunderstorms to the region through the end of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Stubborn mid-level deformation axis stretching from northeast
Kentucky through parts of central Ohio will slowly drift east
over the next few hours. In addition, drier air at around
700mb will likely result in decreasing clouds late. The rest of
the forecast area will continue to see mostly clear skies. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the Great lakes will extend down
toward our area through the day on Tuesday, helping to keep us
dry. Under partly cloudy skies, we will see a return to more
seasonable temperatures with afternoon highs mostly in the mid
70s.

Mid level ridging across the region will shift off to the east
through Tuesday night ahead of an upper level trough/low moving
through the central US. The models have trended a little slower
with this, so expect most of Tuesday night to remain dry with
perhaps some lower end pops sneaking into our far southwest
late. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A potent low pressure system will impact the region for the first
few days of the period. This scenario will feature a digging upper
trough that will develop a surface low tracking to the Western Great
Lakes. A cold front trailing the low will lie nearly parallel to the
meridional upper flow, contributing to the rather slow progress of
the cold front.

For late Wednesday through Thursday, we can expect widespread
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front as it pushes gradually
across Illinois and Indiana. Very strong moisture transport on a
plume containing 1.5+ inches of PWAT will be lifted into showers and
thunderstorms, producing heavy downpours onto relatively soggy
soils. Thunderstorm organization and strength will be aided by
relatively potent wind fields aloft.

The cold front and flattening upper trough are forecast to move east
on Friday, allowing drier weather under a weak surface ridge. Mainly
dry weather may then dominate through the holiday weekend under a
building upper ridge and lingering surface high.

Temperature trends reflect airmass changes associated with the cold
front and then the upper ridge and surface high. Highs in the low
and mid 80s Wednesday in the southerly flow ahead of the front will
decline to the mid 70s to around 80 Thursday mainly due to clouds
and precip, with further cooling to the low and mid 70s Friday under
cold advection and residual clouds and showers. Warm advection and
rising geopotential heights will contribute to increasing
temperatures on the weekend, reaching the mid and upper 80s by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. NE winds
will generally remain under 10 knots overnight, with a few
patches of VFR clouds in the area. Some VFR cumulus development
is then expected today, with winds shifting a little to the ENE,
still at around 10 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hatzos


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