Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 040004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
704 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push south through the Ohio Valley
overnight, bringing some clouds but likely no precipitation.
Persistent northerly flow behind the front will keep
temperatures cool into the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwesterly mid-level flow is in place across the Ohio Valley
with a ridge over the Rockies and a longwave trough over the
East Coast. Surface high pressure centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley will be compressed to the south as a weak
disturbance brings a cold front through the forecast area
overnight. SREF shows increasing probabilities that low-level
clouds will increase in the northerly flow behind the front;
however, precipitation remains unlikely due to lack of deep
moisture.

Low temperatures will quickly drop behind the front, bottoming
out from the upper 20s north to low 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Once the low clouds burn off in northern and eastern areas
around midday Thursday, surface high pressure will provide dry,
cool conditions through the rest of the period. Highs on
Thursday will be in the 40s, with lows Thursday night in the low
to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 northwesterly flow becomes well amplified on Friday, ushering in
some cooler and drier air. Temperatures during the day will trend
below seasonal norms, generally peaking in the upper 30s to middle
40s for Thursday and Friday. Dewpoints will remain in the teens
during this time as well - making the air feel extremely dry. With
the Ohio Valley being placed downstream of a ridge, widespread
subsidence will keep conditions dry with generally clear skies
through the period other than a few passing clouds. Diurnal patterns
will thus dominate through the start of the weekend.

A pattern shift will begin on Sunday as the H5 ridge over the
Central Plains propagates eastward over the eastern CONUS. This will
place the Ohio Valley in a broad area of high pressure. In turn, the
higher geopotential heights will offer warmer temperatures across
the region. A warming trend will persist into the start of the next
work week as high pressure and southerly flow continue.

WAA becomes more amplified on Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for
more locations to trend near or above 60 degrees - well above
climatological norms. The H5 ridge will continue to propagate
further eastward and be replaced by a troughing pattern on
Wednesday. This will in turn provide a chance for rain to return to
the fa as upper-level energy ushers into the Midwest region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A dry frontal boundary is working through the TAF sites. This
will allow for a wind shift. There will be the potential for
some MVFR clouds to develop and move into the area later in the
overnight hours into the morning on Thursday. Only put MVFR
clouds into KCMH and KLCK where confidence is higher. With CAA
expect some cu to be in place through the afternoon hours.

Cannot rule out some MVFR visbys as well overnight, however the
probability is too low to include in this time.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Novak


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