Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 290234
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
934 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will dive southeast into Ohio Valley
this evening bringing light snow to southern locations. Dry and
cold weather is expected Saturday, before warmth and moisture
return next week. Several waves of rain are expected through
the early and middle portions of next week as another wet
pattern takes hold.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Wave of low pressure containing light snow has dropped around a
half inch of accumulation. As expected, the snow is ending as
the wave quickly exits the area, giving way to high pressure and
clearing skies everywhere except Central Ohio where low clouds
are expected to linger. Will keep winter weather advisory in
effect for parts of Northern Kentucky for now due to possible
slick spots. Forecast lows are in the middle teens across
central Ohio and near 20 in the vicinity of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather is expected on Saturday as high
pressure builds in. Some low clouds may linger Saturday morning
across central Ohio east of a vorticity max moving eastward through
Ohio. By the afternoon, all locations are forecast to be
experiencing mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 20s in
central Ohio and upper 30s south of the Ohio River. Westerly winds
around 10-15 mph should help to keep temperatures feeling cooler.

On Sunday night winds are expected to weaken and shift to
southwesterly. Clear skies will allow for decent radiational
cooling, but developing southwesterly winds may help to moderate
temperatures a bit. Expecting lows near 20 in central Ohio and in
the middle 20s near the Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long wave trof shifts east with mid level ridging/height rises
building into the region Sunday. Low level flow backs southerly and
increases with good WAA pattern developing. This will provide a
moderation of temperatures. Readings look to warm above normal with
Sunday`s fcst highs from near 50 north to the upper 50s south.

Model solutions continue to show mid level flow backing westerly
with embedded s/w and WAA leading to a chance of pcpn Sunday night
into Monday. Warm temperatures with highs Monday from the lower
50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest.

Rain chances increase as flow backs southwesterly and slow moving
surface front pushes into the area Tuesday. Favorable moisture
transport develops, with the potential for a prolonged period of
rain - pointing to a signal for heavy rain.

Continuing to observe considerable model solution spread regarding
the details of where the heavy rain sets up. Deterministic model
runs have flipped with a general trend south. Looking at ensemble
output from both the GFS and ECMWF...the most favored region for
heavy rain looks to be over ILN/s southern counties, but a fair
amount of uncertainty exists regarding the exact placement of this
heavy rain axis.

On the warm side of the system, expect Tuesday near 50 northwest to
60 southeast, and from the upper 40s to upper 50s Wednesday.

A general drying trend later Wednesday into Thursday with surface
low and frontal boundary shifting to the east.

Temperatures to trend a little cooler Thursday with highs from the
upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.

Weak embedded shortwave and sfc low to track through the Great Lakes
Thursday night into Friday. With differences in strength and with
best moisture and lift to the north, will limit any pops to slight
chance category at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another round of snow and MVFR ceilings will affect CVG LUK and
ILN early in the forecast. Once the disturbance causing the snow
moves quickly east early tonight, dry air and VFR will replace
the unfavorable flight conditions. We should see little to no
cloud cover by the end of the forecast as high pressure becomes
centered over Tennessee. Winds will generally be from the west
to northwest at around 10 knots, with decreasing southwest
winds at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for KYZ089-090-
     094-095.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio


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