Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 171852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
252 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley region tonight. This high will bring dry conditions and
temperatures slightly below normal through Thursday. A large
mid-level trough will move into the region on Friday and into
the weekend, bringing occasional chances of showers and


Based on surface dewpoint observations and RAP theta-e
analysis, a cold front is currently very close to clearing
through the ILN CWA, with the boundary still in the far
southeastern sections of the forecast area. Behind the front,
dewpoints are settling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Fair-
weather cumulus clouds have begun to develop behind the front,
at the top of a well-mixed boundary layer -- which has produced
a few wind gusts to around 20 knots.

Overnight, the center of the surface high will move over
Wisconsin, with light northerly to northeasterly flow over
OH/IN/KY. Aside from some cirrus, skies should clear, with the
drier air mass allowing for a sizable drop in min temps from
last night tonight. Min temps are expected to be in the upper
50s to lower 60s -- about 5 degrees below normal.


Surface high pressure will gradually drift east across southern
Michigan, enveloping much of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
region, and providing a day that will be comfortable in
temperature and humidity -- especially for the middle of July.
Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.8", but
with a well-mixed boundary layer and some southward-advecting
850mb moisture contributing to scattered cumulus development at
4kft-5kft. Mostly clear to clear skies are expected overnight
once the cumulus dissipates.

Mins in boundary layer temps and theta-e will be roughly over
the ILN CWA on Wednesday, which should make it the coolest day
of the week, with max temps generally in the lower 80s.
Dewpoints will also continue to be fairly low for this time of
year, likely reaching the middle to upper 50s after afternoon


Mid level ridging will shift off to the east through the day on
Thursday ahead of an upper level low that is forecast to drop down
from the upper Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley through the
weekend. This will provide for one last day of dry weather for
Thursday. Precipitation chances will then begin to increase Thursday
night into Friday as a warm front lifts northeast across the area. A
chance for showers and thunderstorms will then persist through the
weekend as the upper level low settles into the region. There will
likely be some diurnal enhancement to the precipitation chances so
will generally allow for likely pops both Saturday and Sunday
afternoon/evening and then taper back to chance/slight chance for
the overnight/morning hours. Near normal highs in the mid 80s are
expected for Thursday and Friday, but with the upper level low
moving in, highs Saturday and Sunday will cool into the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees.

A chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday as
the upper level low begins to weaken and shift off to the east. Weak
high pressure will build into the area for Tuesday, leading to dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend. Highs by Tuesday will be
back into the low to mid 80s.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear
skies will continue this afternoon, with northerly winds that
may occasionally gust to around 15-18 knots. These winds will
diminish to around 5 knots overnight. Valley fog is possible at
KLUK, but otherwise, the air mass should be dry enough to
preclude fog development.

On Wednesday, NNE winds should remain under 10 knots. Cumulus
clouds are expected to develop, but within the VFR range.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday
through Sunday.




NEAR TERM...Hatzos
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