Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 251050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
650 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

A continued stream of moisture will be found in the Ohio Valley
ahead of a cold front that will cross the region late tonight.
High pressure will build over the Midwest on Wednesday behind
this front, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of
the week, possibly into the weekend. This high will settle along
or just northwest of the Ohio River on Thursday.


An organized cluster of storms west of the forecast area will
skim the northwest portion of the CWA this morning in the mean
southwest flow. A noted lull over much of the forecast area
will see scattered showers at best through daybreak. HRRR is
showing a shortwave crossing from north of Indianapolis to the
southwest short of Lake Erie early this morning. It then
develops another wave over southeastern CWA this morning with
more showers expected. By the afternoon, shortwave energy should
be pushing into the IN/OH border and have showers with a much
better chance of thunder work in. This will create the better
threat of heavy rain with a flooding threat today.

This shortwave energy will cross with the heat of the day, but
extensive cloud cover is not going to permit destabilization in
the low levels and keep the threat of severe storms to a minimum
during the day today. One possible exception is if a strong
storm develops over northern Indiana and moves into the
northwest portion of the CWA during peak insolation, if not
surface heating.

Later tonight, the surface front will cross the region and be
found along the I-71 corridor towards daybreak. Storms forming a
squall line with a favorable low level jet may see damaging
winds as a result.

High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s as the warmer
air is being advected in on southwest winds. Overnight lows will
only drop to around 70 southeast of the I-71 corridor, but drop
to around 60 in the far northwest behind the front. Temperatures
in the far southeast may be a few degrees too cool, and the cold
air immediately behind the cold front may push readings
northwest of the I-71 corridor even cooler than forecast.


Any lingering storms will quickly exit during the morning
Wednesday. Highs will only be in the mid 60s northwest to low
70s southeast due to cold advection through the day, just a few
degrees warmer than the mornings low temperatures. As the drier
air works in during the day and overnight, sky cover should also
clear nicely, especially after sunset. Overnight lows will drop
into the 40s, around 50 along the Ohio River.


High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Friday
night. On Saturday a surface cold front will wash out over the
northern Ohio Valley. This is in response to shortwave energy
crossing the Great Lakes region. Little moisture to work with
and a high variability in model depiction of the h5 pattern had
me keep the 20 pops that were in the forecast, though it appears
that these may be overdone.

On Sunday there will be a gradient in temperatures as a warm
front is situated near the area. This front will lift northward
Sunday night. Moving into Monday, thunderstorms stand a better
chance of occurring with daytime heating, primarily in the
northwestern CWA.


Area of showers and thunderstorms is lifting northeast just to
the west of DAY early this morning. This area could clip DAY at
the beginning of the period, so have a VCTS for the first hour.
Otherwise, convection remains scattered in nature as broad scale
lift across the region is on the weak side. Ceilings continue
to dance between MVFR and IFR, with an occasional VFR hole
especially southeast of I-71.

As the day progresses upper level flow will remain from the
southwest. The pcpn is expected to remain scattered this
morning, but as the daytime heating cycle kicks in, the pcpn
will become more widespread this afternoon. Except for DAY, have
just a VCSH for the morning hours, then transitioned to a VCTS.
Ceilings should see a gradual rise to MVFR/VFR during the
diurnal cycle.

A cold front will approach the tafs overnight and expect the
coverage to be widespread enough to go with a prevailing MVFR
vsby. Due to the front coming in after 06Z, not sure how much
thunder there will be, so kept just a VCTS. Do expect ceilings
to drop down to MVFR/IFR overnight.

For the 30 hr CVG taf, fropa will be between 12Z-15Z Wednesday.
Winds will shift to the northwest and increase, while the pcpn
quickly cuts off.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities possible Wednesday morning.


OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ073-074-077>082-
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ073>075-080.


NEAR TERM...Franks/Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks/Novak
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