921
FXUS61 KILN 151821
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
221 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will linger across the area through the week and
into the weekend, keeping the threat for daily showers and
thunderstorms. A seasonably warm and humid pattern will also continue.
This active pattern with numerous rounds of showers and storms,
especially Wednesday through the weekend, may bring the potential
for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Increasing showers and storms developing through the afternoon into
mid evening ahead of a shortwave over the lower Ohio Valley, with a
frontal boundary laid out across the southern forecast area at this
time. With an established ridge centered over the SE CONUS, the
boundary will continue to be a focus of scattered showers and storms
through the week. For this afternoon, the primary focus area will be
the tri state region. Boundary layer shear and DCAPEs are fairly
modest, so main the potential for a strong storm or two with heavy
downpours, but there is some steering flow which should at least keep
slow moving/clustering at bay. Coverage will become more isolated as
the evening progresses.

While precip will become isolated overnight, the main shortwave
approaches portions of northern KY by daybreak, so precip chances
will increase again in this area after 09z. PWs do increase to over
2 inches or into the 90th percentile, which does raise some concern
for heavy rain late tonight and into Wednesday, though overall storm
movement is expected to remain progressive.  Overnight lows in the
lower 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the shortwave moves through the area on Wednesday, showers and
storms will become more widespread. This, along with a surge of 2
inch+ PWs, does increase concern for additional swaths of heavy
rain, which could create 12-24 hour accumulations of 2 inches or
more. This will raise the potential for localized flooding
especially in southern Ohio/northern KY and SE Indiana.

Highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal flow will continue aloft through the weekend. As it does, a
cold front will sag south across the Ohio Valley Thursday into
Friday before lifting back to the north as a warm front Saturday
into Sunday.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to
lower 90s on Saturday. As we destabilize through the day, widespread
showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening.  There remains some uncertainty as to just how far
south the front will make it through the day on Friday. This will
determine pcpn chances Friday afternoon into the evening. As of now,
it looks like the best chance for showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front will be across our south, closer to the
front, with chances likely dropping off fairly quickly farther to
the north. Temperatures will also be dependent on the placement of
the front but for now will range highs on Friday from the upper 70s
north to the mid 80s south.

Pcpn chances will then continue at times through the weekend as the
boundary lifts back to the north. There will likely be some diurnal
enhancement to the the pcpn during the afternoon/evenings as we
destabilize. Highs both days will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Quasi-zonal flow will persist into early next week. Will therefore
linger some pcpn chances on through the remainder of the long term
period. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to
upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through the first few hours of the TAF period,
with mostly KCVG/KLUK/KILN and to a lesser extent, KDAY experiencing
occasional MVFR ceilings/visibilities in thunderstorms. Introduced a
TEMPO for thunderstorms at KILN/KDAY through 22-23z.

After thunderstorm chances wane diurnally, VFR conditions overnight,
with less of a chance for KLUK BR with increasing clouds overnight.
Brought in an additional PROB30 for all locations on Wednesday with
the shortwave traveling through the area, after 10-11z at KCVG/KLUK,
and later for the other locations.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
     065.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JDR