471
FXUS61 KILN 100003
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
803 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Weak cold front slowly moves through tonight, with very limited
coverage in showers/storms today and Sunday.

2) Showers and possibly some thunderstorms expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

2) Seasonably cool temperatures expected most of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Most of the shower activity has ended for the day, but an elongated
cold front to our north will slowly work its way southward through
our CWA tonight. Isolated convection expected to develop out ahead of
this cold front later this evening, primarily north of I-70.
Majority of CAMs keep the activity north of our CWA. However, keep in
mind that an isolated shower may scoot across our northern counties
later this evening into the early overnight hours.

Cold front is expected to have progressed just south of the Ohio
River by daybreak Sunday. This will result in a dry Mother`s Day
forecast for most of our CWA. The only caveat to this is that some
hi-res models do indicate that the front will stall out just south
of the Ohio River during the day. Along/south of the front, some
isolated showers and perhaps a stray storm could still develop.
Shower/storm activity will likely be just south of our fa, but
cannot rule out a stray shower developing in far southern OH and
north-central KY during the afternoon/evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2)
A robust, H5 shortwave trough will swing down from Canada Monday
night, increasing cloud coverage throughout the day Tuesday. There
is likely enough forcing with this system to generate shower and
thunderstorm activity late Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest model
guidance suggests the best coverage in pcpn will be Tuesday night,
with the system gradually moving east of our fa Wednesday. Not overly
impressed with this system from a QPF standpoint or severe
potential, but this will be our next best chance for widespread pcpn.


KEY MESSAGE 3)
Temperatures will creep to near normal for today, but the cold front
moves through tonight and will usher in another shot of cooler/drier
air. We won`t observe a drastic dip in temperatures on Sunday given
the limited H5 height falls, but temperatures in the middle 60s to
lower 70s will still be below normal for most.

Highs in the 60s to near 70 are expected for the majority of the work
week, which will be just below seasonal normals. A pattern shift
late week will result in a warm-up for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad mid level trof over the Great Lakes with a short wave pivoting
thru the southern Great Lakes this evening. A surface cold front
entering extreme northwest Ohio to slip south into central Ohio early
in the overnight hours and then stalling out south of the Ohio River
toward sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
in the marginally unstable air ahead of the front. A few of these
showers and storms will slip into ILN/s northern counties this
evening but with loss of more favorable instability and forcing -
they will be in a weakening state. It is not out of the question
that KCMH or KLCK observes a shower or storm but coverage and
probability is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

Expect a period of mostly clear skies early this evening before the
cold front progresses southward, resulting in low and mid level cloud
development. Guidance suggests CIGs likely to remain VFR through the
entire TAF period.

Southwesterly winds gusting up to 20-25 kts to diminish early this
evening with wind speeds dropping below 10 kts. A wind shift to the
north-northwest is expected overnight into Sunday morning with the
frontal passage. Northwest winds around 10 kts can be expected Sunday
afternoon.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...AR