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383
FXUS61 KILN 052032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
332 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure continues to provide a mostly sunny and dry
afternoon and evening. A weak low pressure system will bring a
chance for some light rain on Friday, especially for areas along
and south of the Ohio River. A drier airmass will build back
into the region for the weekend. Another system moves in late
Sunday night into Monday, bringing the next chance for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon reveals much of the
area has and will continue to see abundant sunshine until sunset
thanks to dry air and a weak low-mid level ridge situated over
the region. Some upper level clouds are beginning to work in
across the northern fringes of the forecast area as a
disturbance aloft moves into the Great Lakes. Mid-upper level
clouds are also expected to eventually spread eastward as a
secondary shortwave trough moves into the Ohio Valley later
tonight. Otherwise, temperatures gradually fall back into the
30s by sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

There should be limited sunshine to start the day on Friday as
an approaching shortwave moves into lower Ohio Valley spreading
mid and upper level clouds eastward across the area.
Additionally, a cold front is expected to be moving in from the
northwest throughout the morning hours. Low level moisture
increases with the front, however, the strongest forcing and
moisture is displaced to the south. This focuses the best rain
chances for southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Rain arrives
during the morning hours for the Cincinnati metro before
gradually shifting eastward throughout the day and clearing by
the late afternoon. Remnant showers may linger into the early
evening hours for southeast portions of the forecast area as the
shortwave shifts eastward. Overall accumulations should be
fairly light with most locations seeing less than a tenth of an
inch.

High pressure begins to build to the northwest by Friday night,
ushering in drier air and cooler temperatures. By sunrise,
temperatures in the mid 20s are forecast with low 20s possible
in a few spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The extended period starts off benign as high pressure will
cover the Ohio Valley. Skies should be mostly sunny due to the
high pressure with high temperatures near normal, as they range
from the lower 40s in the far north to the mid 40s in the south.

With near zonal flow over the region, the surface high is
forecast to quickly work to the east coast by 12Z Sunday. The
12Z NAM is the quickest of the models in bringing the return
flow of moisture back into the region, as it has light pcpn
across the much of the forecast area by 12Z. The rest of the
extended models keep Sunday night dry. Will lean towards this
drier solution.

On Sunday the broad low level southwest flow continues. in
broad isentropic lift, the NAM continues to produce the light
rain showers across the area. The operational GFS and ECMWF
meanwhile keep the region dry. the latest NBM has some 20 PoPs
on Sunday. Due to the uncertainty, won`t remove them this cycle.

On Sunday night into Monday an approaching cold front increases
the lift and rain will become more widespread. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 50s as the region is on the warm side of
the front.

This far out there are differences in the strength and location
of the surface low that is driving the cold front. This affects
the exact timing of the frontal passage. General consensus is
that fropa will be late Monday night. With a strong arctic
airmass behind the front, it is looking like temperatures will
fall on Tuesday. A change over from rain to snow will accompany
the change in airmass.

Cold air advection will linger Tuesday night, which will keep
some light snow showers in the region.

Well below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as
the arctic high builds into the region. Morning lows will be in
the teens to lower 20s Wednesday morning, and highs will only
recover into the mid 20s to lower 30s in the afternoon.

By Thursday the center of the high will be off to the east and
the airmass will be moderating. Highs Thursday are forecast to
be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

High pressure will push east across the region through this
evening, providing prevailing VFR conditions. As the high moves
off to the east overnight, mid level moisture increases from
the southwest through the early morning hours. Cigs will
continue to lower after 09Z-11Z for all TAF sites with MVFR
cigs arriving throughout the morning. Best chance for a period
of light rain is across the south (KILN, KCVG, KLUK) during the
late morning and early afternoon.

Toward the end of the forecast period, a cold front moves
through during the afternoon (17-19Z) resulting in a wind shift
from southwest to northwest. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots will
be possible Friday afternoon as the front moves through.

OUTLOOK... MVFR conditions are possible again Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...McGinnis