Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240547
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building through the Great Lakes will provide a
couple more days of dry weather for most of the Ohio Valley,
although temperatures will remain above normal. Moisture will
begin to increase from south to north on Friday afternoon into
Saturday, and with this a small chance for thunderstorms
especially along and south of the Ohio River. This threat will
expand over the holiday weekend with continued warm and humid
conditions into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Blended observed temperature and dewpoint traces to the current
forecast and essentially rolled the database with little if any
changes this evening.

Quiet weather expected overnight as surface high pressure exerts
its influence over the Great Lakes with light northeasterly flow
and mostly clear skies. Setup appears ripe for some valley fog
development, and perhaps a little fog outside the valleys
especially in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky.
Temperatures overnight much cooler than previous nights with 50s
in most areas, with the coolest readings in drainage areas in
central Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Dry weather continues into Thursday as high pressure continues
to bring drier easterly flow into the area. Plenty of sunshine
around some high clouds, and temperatures will respond nicely
into the 80s by afternoon. Deeper moisture begins to work around
the backside of the high on Thursday night across Kentucky and
points south, but do not expect any shower chances to make it
this far north until Friday (see below). With slowly returning
moisture, warmer overnight lows expected Thursday night all
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summer-like pattern is expected for the majority of the long term,
with above normal temperatures and a chance of mainly diurnal
showers and thunderstorms particularly over the weekend and again
during the middle of next week.

Return flow around high pressure will allow moisture increase to
begin on Friday. This will lead to a few pop of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly southeast of Interstate 71.
Then the coverage of afternoon convection is likely to increase for
Saturday as precipitable waters are forecast to be back near 1.5
inches. In addition to better moisture and instability, a shortwave
is forecast to enter the Ohio Valley by afternoon promoting
scattered convection.

Scattered mainly diurnal convection continues on Sunday. It`s
possible coverage of convection may be a little less early next
week, although in this pattern pop ups will still be possible. Then
models suggest moisture streaming from the south ahead of a
shortwave by mid-week for at least scattered convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes today
offering dry weather. In this relatively dry airmass expect to
only observe some high level cirrus clouds.

Clear skies and light winds may allow river valley fog to result
in MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK toward daybreak. KILN may also
see a brief period of MVFR fog prior to sunrise. Otherwise...expect
VFR conditions through the day with east winds at less than 10
kts.

OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau/AR
NEAR TERM...Binau/Franks
SHORT TERM...Binau/AR
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...AR



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