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317
FXUS61 KILN 060551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region
through at least midweek, leading to periods of showers and
thunderstorms into Thursday. Drier air will return by the end of
the week as below normal temperatures settle in for next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Arching band of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting up
the Ohio Valley in advance of a well developed short wave will
push into northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and the
Cincinnati metro before daybreak Monday. Otherwise, there will
be thickening cloud cover through the overnight. Forecast lows
look reasonable ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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A pivoting axis of SHRA/TSRA will overspread the srn 2/3 of the
ILN FA during the daytime Monday, with the greatest coverage
focusing S of I-70. The front will also pivot back N, allowing
for richer LL moisture to expand back N, with PWATs once again
exceeding 1.5 inches (175% of seasonal norms). This, combined
with slowing/erratic cell motions (owing to a developing W-E
oriented LL convergence zone with stretching along it), may
once again create isolated heavy rain/flooding concerns,
especially in a tier or two of counties either side of the OH
Rvr. Have added mention in the HWO for the areas of greatest
potential for flooding concerns Monday afternoon/evening.

With quite a bit of cloud cover and precipitation, forecast
highs were trimmed several degrees, with highs generally in the
lower/mid 70s and sfc DPs nudging back into the mid 60s for most
spots. SHRA/TSRA activity should become more ISO in coverage
toward the evening, but may not shut off completely through
Monday night as the weakly-convergent axis continues to crawl to
the N. An unseasonably warm night is on tap for Monday as lows
only dip into the lower/mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A persistent southwest flow aloft will allow deep moisture advection
through much of the period. Coupled with a parade of disturbances,
the moisture advection will lead to several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, producing the chance for hazardous weather during
parts of the long term.

For Tuesday, thunderstorms will be triggered by a couple of
disturbances settling into the Ohio Valley. Ample instability will
allow the deep convection, which will be organized by a potent mid
level wind flow. Downbursts will be favored by dry air in the mid
levels, suggesting a threat for severe thunderstorms. After a
relative lull Tuesday night to early Wednesday, more strong to
severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night when a more potent disturbance triggers a surface low tracking
to the Great Lakes.

For Thursday through Sunday, while stronger disturbances may allow
the bulk of severe weather to shift south and east, mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day in persistent
moisture and instability.

Warm weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s. Cooler air working in on a
northwesterly breeze will result in highs mainly in the 60s for
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Increasing deep moisture along with coverage of showers will
lower ceilings and visibility starting around daybreak at the
Cincinnati terminals, with an expansion north through the
morning hours. Some guidance lowers ceilings into the IFR range
by late afternoon... though consensus (in addition to this TAF
update) holds off until tonight. This solution is favored by
climatology as well.

There is also a possibility that visibility lowers below three
miles for brief periods during increased shower intensity.

Winds will generally be out of the east at less than 10 knots
through the period.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...