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626
FXUS61 KILN 151314
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
914 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected today into Sunday
as a strong low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes
region. High pressure will then build into the Ohio Valley through
mid week, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The Wind Advisory was expanded to cover the entire ILN FA and was
extended in time until 6 AM Sunday to account for potential gusty
winds lingering through tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercells is moving
east northeast across southern Illinois and western Kentucky at this
time. These storms will continue to work their way toward our area
through the pre-dawn hours. Thermodynamically, the airmass across our
area is not as favorable with surface dewpoints still in the 40s, so
do expect to see an overall weakening trend in the intensity and
coverage of these storms as they approach. However, given the
impressive wind fields, it will be tough to rule out a few strong to
severe storms, mainly across our far west. While it would be tough to
rule out a brief tornado, the primary threat would be damaging
winds, especially given the potential for some enhancement due to
evaporative cooling. As the pcpn moves across the rest of our area,
expect to see a continued weakening trend through mid morning. We
then may end up with a lull in pcpn from late morning into early
afternoon.

Mid level short wave energy moving through the base of the upper
level trough will help spin up a secondary wave/low pressure system
across the Tennessee valley this afternoon. With an associated
strengthening 70-80 knot 850 mb jet nosing up into the mid Ohio
Valley by late afternoon, expect widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms to spread back in from the south through mid
to late afternoon. There remains some uncertainty as to how much
surface based instability will be present by this time and this may
end up limiting the overall severe threat. Again though, given the
strong wind fields, it will be tough to rule out a few strong to
severe storms later this afternoon into early evening, with
damaging wind the main threat.

No changes planned to the Wind Advisory attm.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into
tonight along the nose of the strong low level jet, before beginning
to shift slowly east through the overnight hours. With PWs pushing
up to around 1.5 inches, heavy rain will be possible. There remains
a fair amount of variance with the models in where the swath of
heaviest rain will line up and just how far north it will make it.
Have therefore decided to build a little uncertainty into the Flood
Watch and extend it a bit farther north for tonight.

Shower activity will linger into the day on Sunday as the upper
level trough axis shifts east across our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure skirts by south of the area Sunday night through
Monday. Cool and dry conditions are expected. Surface high pressure
shifts east by midweek thereby causing southerly flow to redevelop
over area by Monday night. Southerly flow increases through
Wednesday when a strong low pressure system moves into the Great
Lakes. Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front associated
with the low into Wednesday night. FROPA is currently forecast to
occur around the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. Precipitation
may linger a bit behind the front when gusty northwesterly winds
move in behind the front. Cooler conditions return behind the front
for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east across our area
through mid morning and slowly weaken and then dissipate through
late morning. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will then
spread back in from the south later this afternoon and continue into
tonight as a secondary low pressure system moves through the Ohio
Valley. With this second round of pcpn, prevailing cigs and vsbys
will drop into MVFR with some occasional IFR vsbys possible in the
heavier rain showers. Scattered showers and MVFR conditions will
then likely linger into the day on Sunday as an upper level low
pressure axis shifts east across the region. Southerly gradient winds
will continue today into this evening at 15 to 25 knots with some
gusts in the 30 to 40 knot range.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     080.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ075-080.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...KC/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL