Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142351 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 751 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are expected through this evening before becoming more isolated and spotty tonight into the day on Monday. Below normal temperatures are expected throughout the upcoming week, with episodic low chances for showers through Tuesday. Drier conditions are expected to evolve by midweek and beyond as drier air settles into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms continue to develop and track east southeast across the forecast area. Expect this activity to diminish with the loss of heat but not necessarily dissipate until later in the night. Expect clouds to persist through the night area wide. Forecast lows look reasonable at this point.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The system will continue to drift S and away from the ILN FA through the short term period, although a few spotty wraparound SHRA cannot be completely ruled out through the day on Monday, especially in the S and far E stretches of the local area. Winds will turn to the N on the backside of the low Monday into Monday night, with temps generally about 5 degrees below seasonal norms through the short term period. A clearing trend is expected through Monday afternoon, although skies are not likely to be completely clear through daybreak Tuesday. Some residual moisture will linger on the backside of the departing system, especially as the cloud-bearing flow becomes more E Monday night and advects some moisture /back/ into the area from the E toward daybreak Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper low covering a large are of the Northeast will keep northwest flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. A weak trough wrapping around the low will cross the region late Wednesday but will primarily result in a bit more cloud cover on this day. This trough weakens and lifts northeast Thurs night/Friday, with building heights over the CWA on Friday. Southwest flow aloft will be found ahead of the next cutoff low slowly moving east through the Midwest over the weekend. At the surface, a weak surface low will track north through eastern Kentucky Tuesday and linger over the OH/KY border overnight. This low then weakens to become more of a inverted trough stretching from southern Ohio towards the KY/TN border south of Louisville on Wednesday. This trough remains fairly stationary through Thurs night but weakens through time. The next surface feature worth mentioning is the low developing between St. Louis and Chicago on Sunday along and ahead of the upper low. Southerly flow in the Ohio Valley given this setup will bring in cloud cover that will negate the bulk of any warmer air infiltrating the CWA from the south. Precip chances on Tuesday look to be worth mentioning but are expected to be light, and more hit and miss given the nature of the atmosphere. Northwest flow will bring cooler air to interact with what breaks in the cloud cover are there to create a favorable environment for scattered to isolated showers and some areas of light rain, primarily during the max heating of the day. A similar setup is in the works for Wednesday, but NBM is bullish on producing rain during this time. Expect future updates to see some activity noted in the afternoon hours. Afterwards, it should remain dry with an uptick in rain chances beginning Friday night and lasting through the weekend. Given the upper systems, a warm front will likely cross northeast through the region on Saturday, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. A lull should occur in the wake of the front with increased moisture and lift bringing more activity on Sunday with the incoming upper and surface lows. Temperatures will continue to run right around normal through the period. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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There remain some showers about the area with at least some potential for them to cross the terminals early in the period, but the chance was low enough to go with a VCSH. There area some lower clouds about and expect them to become more extensive after 06Z, mainly from KCVG/KLUK to KILN, which will result in MVFR conditions. Further north, drier low level air will likely allow ceilings to be VFR. Ceilings will lift after 14Z with all sites becoming VFR again. Clouds will break during the latter part of the period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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