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000
FXUS61 KALY 151730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will produce some isolated to
widely scattered showers for areas mainly north of Interstate 90
this afternoon, otherwise it will be partly sunny with
mild temperatures. High pressure will bring dry and mild
weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, with unsettled weather
returning later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 118 PM EDT...The patchy dense fog fully
diminished between 10-11 am and has been removed from the
forecast. Some isolated to scattered showers continue over the
southern Dacks, Lake George Saratoga Region and are drifting
into south-central VT associated with the upper trough. We re-
did temp trends and increased max temps a few degrees in the
Capital District and Mid Hudson Valley due to downsloping, as
max temps reached the mid 60s to lower 70s and pockets of mid
70s near KPOU. We also increased wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph in
the Capital Region.

PREV DISCUSSION [0952 AM EDT]...

The 12Z KALY sounding shows a strong low-level radiative
inversion below 925 hPa with the fog/stratus below it. Stronger
winds from aloft and some sunshine should continue to break up
the fog. An upper level disturbance will produce some isolated
to scattered showers mainly across the southern Dacks, Lake
George Region into VT late this morning into the afternoon. It
will become breezy with west/northwest winds 10-20 mph with some
gusts about 30 mph or with mixed clouds and sunshine. Temps
will be seasonable for mid-April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated showers/sprinkles may persist across portions of the
southern Adirondacks/southern VT through this evening, otherwise
dry weather is expected through at least Wednesday morning. It
will become breezy once mixing depth increases Tuesday afternoon
once again, with west/northwest winds possibly reaching 25-30
mph across portions of the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires. Lows tonight and Monday night in the mid/upper 20s
to lower 30s across the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson
Valley, with mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday
afternoon in the lower/mid 60s for valley areas, and 55-60 for
most higher terrain areas.

For Wednesday, latest guidance continues to suggest a slower
arrival of clouds and showers with next system, as upper level
confluent flow keeps high pressure closer to the region. For
now, have a slow increase in clouds, with low chances for
showers across western areas late in the day, while remaining
dry from the Capital Region and points north and east. However,
there remains some uncertainty in the timing of any incoming
showers. Assuming showers hold off, max temps should reach the
upper 50s to lower/mid 60s in valley areas, warmest for the
upper Hudson Valley region.

Showers slowly advance north and east Wednesday night, however
dry air from lingering high pressure may tend to erode showers
from reaching portions of the SE Adirondacks, upper Hudson
Valley and southern VT. Lows mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Thursday with upper troughing to our
west, and an associated surface low tracking north of the Great
Lakes. Upper ridging may help to keep us relatively dry through the
first part of the morning, although chances for showers increase in
the afternoon as the system`s occluded front tracks across the
region. The front will be slow-moving, so some showers could linger
into Thursday night. With more clouds and showers around, it will be
a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday with highs mainly in
the 40s (terrain) to 50s (valleys) and lows in the 30s to 40s.

Friday into Saturday...Upper troughing slides eastwards, helping to
drive a stronger cold front through the region. There are some
significant timing differences with the frontal passage in numerical
guidance, so at this time will just lean towards the middle ground
NBM solution with the frontal passage daytime Saturday. Regardless
of the exact timing, additional showers are expected with the cold
frontal passage. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier weather is
expected for the second half of the weekend into early next week
with cold/dry advection and high pressure building in from the west.
Temperatures will likely run below normal for this timeframe. The
CPC is expecting near to sightly below normal temperatures and near
to slightly below normal precipitation for days 8 to 14.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected at all terminals
through the TAF period. Skies are generally sct-bkn at 3-6 kft
for most of the region, with lower cloud coverage to the south
including POU. Isolated light rain showers to the north will
continue through the afternoon before diminishing, but no
impacts are anticipated at GFL from these showers. Cloud
coverage will trend lower this evening and overnight, with clear
skies expected across the region after 00-03Z Tue. Few clouds
at 4-5 kft will develop as diurnal mixing begins after 14-15Z
Tue. No vsbys restrictions are anticipated through the period.

West to northwest winds at 10-15 kt gusting 20-30 kt will
continue at all terminals through this evening, before
decreasing to 5 kt or less after 00-03Z Tue. Light west to
northwest winds will continue overnight, before increasing out
of the northwest at 8-12 kt after 14-15Z Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Picard