891
FXUS61 KALY 080523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
123 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish across the
region tonight and redevelop tomorrow afternoon resulting from a
slow-moving cold frontal boundary and remnant moisture from
Tropical Depression Chantal. Humid conditions also continue into
tomorrow, though oppressive heat, after today, is not likely
for the foreseeable future. A brief break in precipitation for
most Wednesday will be followed with additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms throughout the remainder of the week
as an unsettled pattern ensues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for areas south and east
  of the Capital District tomorrow with the primary threat being
  strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

- All showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will have the
  capability of producing locally heavy downpours which could
  lead to localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

Discussion:
Severe weather threat has diminished this evening as the line of
showers and thunderstorms west of the Hudson Valley has become
outflow dominant with much of this precipitation quickly
dissipating. Additional showers and thunderstorms are occurring
across the mid- Hudson Valley with locally heavy rainfall
possible in these areas over the next few hours. The heat
advisory was allowed to expire as temperatures begin to fall
this evening.

The aforementioned cold frontal boundary will slowly traverse
the region through tonight, becoming positioned just to our
south by tomorrow morning. With multiple low pressure
perturbations developing along this boundary, becoming
stationary to our south tomorrow, additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow especially in the
afternoon. However, latest CAMs have begun to show the boundary
pushing farther to our south, therefore keeping most of the
convection also to our south. There are also timing
discrepancies in the latest CAMs with some showing convection
developing in the late afternoon and others not until early to
the middle of the evening. With extensive cloud cover around, it
could be hard for strong thunderstorms to develop, but with
similar indices around in comparison to today, the SPC
maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for
areas south and east of the Capital District. Strong to locally
damaging winds will be the primary threat once again, though
with even more moisture around than today courtesy of the
remnants of Chantal within closer reach, the threat for locally
heavy downpours and subsequent urban and poor drainage flooding
is arguably a greater threat than gusty winds.

Showers may linger into early Wednesday morning with the stalled
boundary remaining relatively stagnant, though its slight shift
southward, paired with geopotential heights aloft rising into a
brief zonal flow pattern will quickly put an end to any
persistent precipitation. Dry conditions, once reinforced, will
then remain in place throughout the day Wednesday before another
upper-level shortwave threatens additional showers for Thursday.
High temperatures throughout the short term will gradually
lower, becoming much less comfortable as moisture gradually
dwindles as well. Tuesday will be the warmest and muggiest day
of the period with highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s and heat
indices gracing the 90s in the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest
New England. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler in terms of
air temperature with much less humidity before Thursday "cools"
to the mid 70s to low and possibly mid 80s. Lows over the period
will also gradually decrease from the 60s to low 70s tonight to
the upper 50s to upper 60s by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level troughing extending south into the Northeast from a
closed low overhead will force the continuation of widespread,
light showers throughout the overnight Thursday. The development
of another surface low in the Mid-Atlantic region along the
lingering stationary boundary from earlier in the week will
allow showers to linger into the day Friday, especially along
and east of the Hudson River Valley as the upper trough begins
to depart to the east and the surface low to the south tracks
along the Long Island Coast into the western Atlantic. Shortwave
ridging then begins to build in across the region Friday evening
through Saturday atop high pressure at the surface, reinforcing
dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England.
But tranquility will not be long lasting as yet another frontal
system and upper level disturbance threaten to bring back
showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.

The extended period, though containing its fair share of less
than ideal weather conditions, does look to pass by without the
threat of additional periods of oppressive heat. Highs
will generally span the 70s and 80s with lows in the upper 50s
and 60s. And while the expected wet weather will maintain a
moist airmass, dewpoints do not look to reach the anomalous
levels they have recently.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z/Wed...VFR conditions ongoing at all the terminals as our
cold front continues to slowly track south and east through eastern
NY tonight. Given very humid conditions and partial clearing at
times tonight, some patchy MVFR cigs are possible at all terminals
between 07 and 10 UTC but given low confidence, we removed MVFR
mention from the TAFs with this update. Our cold front continues to
slowly drift south and east this morning, shifting south of ALB and
PSF by 17 - 19 UTC with POU likely remaining mainly south of the
front most of the day. With such a humid air mass continuing over
POU and with additional disturbances tracking overhead, renewed
thunderstorms and shower activity is likely this afternoon into this
evening. Scattered thunderstorms looks to initiate around POU by 17-
18 UTC with MVFR flying conditions likely during any storm. Brief
IFR vis cannot be ruled out during any heavy downpours but not
enough confidence to include IFR at this time. Scattered storms
continue through early evening before storms diminish by 03 UTC.

Light southerly winds tonight before the front pushes through GFL
shortly before 12 UTC resulting in a northeasterly wind shift with
winds becoming sustained 5-10kts. Winds shift to the west/northwest
at ALB and PSF by 17-18 UTC as the front arrives with sustained
winds 5-9kts and gusts up to 15kts. POU remains ahead of the front
today maintaining west/southwest winds sustained 5-9kts and gusts up
to 15kts.

Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ001-013.
     Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ064>066.
     Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for
     NYZ065-066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Gant/Rathbun
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Speciale