Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
101 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Surface low moving into the southeastern portions of ILX CWA this
morning, with precip across the northern tier, along and N of I-74
for the most part. A wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet, and
temperatures hovering near or just above freezing resulting in
some wet roads and minor accumulations on elevated surfaces. Any
accumulations are temporary given the temps in that 33-34F range.
Some minor updates to precip type, and will likely continue to see
the occasional updates to the gridded forecast until this system
moves all the way through the region.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A brief period of light freezing rain will be possible across the
far northern KILX CWA early this morning: however, with air
temperatures hovering right at 32F and relatively warm/wet ground
conditions, do not think icing will be a major problem. Am
expecting some minor ice accumulations mainly on trees/elevated
surfaces along and north of a
Bloomington line. Any early morning freezing rain will quickly
transition to rain as temps edge above freezing by 14z/9am.
Further south, may see a few light rain showers but precip amounts
will remain quite light. The showers will gradually taper off by
early to mid-afternoon: however, little or no clearing will occur
until evening. Once the upper low responsible for the precip
shifts off to the east, subsidence on the back side of the low
and a dry northerly flow will allow the clouds to slowly scatter
from north to south tonight. Based on forecast soundings,
locations along/north of I-74 will clear this evening...with the
far S/SE CWA likely remaining mostly cloudy until closer to dawn

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Relatively quiet late winter weather will prevail through the
extended...with no significant storm systems and no major
temperature swings expected. Low pressure will track south of
Illinois on Monday, bringing light rain to the area. As colder air
is drawn southward on the back side of the departing low, the rain
will change to snow Monday night, with a minor accumulation of
less than 1 inch expected on grassy surfaces. A period of cool/dry
weather is then anticipated Tuesday through Thursday before the
next storm system brings rain back into the picture by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Mainly IFR in the short term...stepping to IFR later this
afternoon. An optimistic forecast in the short range
models...with an improvement to VFR later this evening. A little
concerned with the rapid improvement given the wide swath of low
cigs on sat imagery this afternoon off to the west and northwest.
Models move that through the region, settling in a scattered sky
and light winds early in the pre dawn hours. Some patchy fog will
also be a concern from 08z-14z or so with the light winds and
given significant break up of the clouds, but the confidence is
low so far... not to mention the spotty nature of the reduced vis
in the guidance. &&



LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.