Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
700 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

High pressure will migrate across northern Illinois tonight
producing mostly clear skies with light north to northeast winds.
With crossover temperatures this afternoon just over 60 degrees
across the area and lows expected to drop into the upper 50s to
around 60 in many areas north of I-70, patchy fog still seems
possible overnight, especially given that most model and MOS
guidance is hinting at areas of fog development. Additionally, a
region of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from Jacksonville up through
the Illinois River Valley fell yesterday, and should contribute to
low level moisture. For Wednesday, light northeast winds will
continue, with ridging amplifying into central IL. Highs will
trend upward into the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A large scale high pressure ridge will continue relatively
stationary over the Plains for the upcoming week. The result will
be warm temperatures, trending to the upper 80s to around 90
degrees late this week through the weekend. Any chance for
precipitation will come from weak shortwave features trying to
progress through the Plains ridge. Models suggest enough Gulf
moisture drawn into the Plains to produce precipitation,
primarily diurnally modulated, Friday through the weekend into
early next week. At this point, precip chances vary from slight
chance to chance during the afternoon and evening periods Friday
through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the 00z TAF time
frame...with a period of MVFR visbys possible early Wednesday
morning. Other than FEW-SCT high clouds, skies will remain mostly
clear tonight. With winds becoming very light from the N/NE and
sufficient boundary layer moisture in place, patchy fog will
likely develop...particularly across the Illinois River Valley
where 1-2 inches of rain recently fell. Have therefore hit KPIA
hardest with reduced visbys down to 4 miles after 09z. Shortly
thereafter, a band of mid-level clouds will approach from the
west, with 18z NAM RH fields suggesting it will reach KPIA/KSPI by
dawn before gradually dissipating as the morning progresses. Have
added a 12000ft ceiling after 13z at those two sites accordingly,
with only high/thin clouds elsewhere. Winds will initially be
N/NW at 5-10kt early this evening, then will veer to the NE and
decrease to 5kt or less tonight. An E/NE wind of 5-10kt will
develop on Wednesday.




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