Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 231742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1242 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast looks on track today and just minor updates to the
hourly weather elements. A sunny to mostly sunny and warm day
unfolding with highs generally in the mid 80s this afternoon with
winds less than 10 mph. 1024 mb high pressure over Lake MI and
ridging sw into central IL late this morning, will drift across
lower MI by this evening, while upper level ridge builds over the
MS river valley. This will continue fair wx across the CWA through


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Upper level ridge continues to build across the central U.S. into
the Canadian prairies, and this trend will keep our area dry
through tonight. Some high clouds with a developing MCS over
Iowa/Minnesota may spill into the northern CWA later this morning,
but the storms themselves will be blocked by the surface high over
the Great Lakes. While temperatures rise well into the 80s today,
the east/northeast flow will keep dew points in the more
comfortable 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The longer range of the forecast remains a challenge. The ridge
will begin to break down later this week, allowing for a shortwave
to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The amount of
moisture advection is uncertain, as most of the models continue
to advertise a tropical type system in the Gulf as the weekend
begins. Also, as we go into early next week, a rex block starts to
set up, preventing any significant surge of this system`s
remnants northward. Thus, any showers/storms in our area will be
more diurnally driven. PoP`s will generally be in the 20-30% range
at best, but the holiday weekend should have extended periods of
dry weather. It will be quite warm, though, with highs in the 90
degree vicinity and heat index values peaking in the mid 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR conditions forecast to continue across the central IL airports
through 18Z/1 pm Thu. 1024 mb high pressure over Lake MI and
ridging sw into IL/MO will drift over the southern Great Lakes by
18Z/Thu while upper level ridge builds over the MS river valley
including IL. This will continue fair and dry weather across
central IL through Thu. Models shows some cumulus clouds from
Galesburg to Springfield west into mid afternoon and then drifting
further west later this afternoon as drier air moves in from the
ENE. East to ENE winds less than 10 kts this afternoon to be light
tonight and veer SE at 5-8 kts after 14Z/9 am Thu. Latest CAM
models are not showing any fog formation overnight across central
IL airports with drier dewpoints advecting in from the east.





SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
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