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854
FXUS64 KLZK 251540
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1040 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Continuing to monitor progression of precipitation shield, now
moving into northwest sections of the forecast area. Have adjusted
forecasts through 06z/26 to account for latest trends and to
incorporate CAM type guidance.

55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 632 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018)
AVIATION...

Ceilings will gradually lower with time as a storm system
approaches from the west. VFR conditions this morning will
deteriorate to MVFR and IFR with precipitation becoming likely.
Some drier air will move in across the central and southern TAFS
towards the end of the period for a decrease in precipitation
chances. The upper level part of the storm will keep showers
across the north. Winds will slowly turn to the northwest behind a
front but remain generally light.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 404 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018)
Short Term...Today through Thursday night

The overall progressive pattern of late will continue through the
short term with showers and isolated thunderstorms back in the
forecast. Model differences this period are minimal although the
spread between solutions does increase with time. The ECMWF seems to
have played catch up versus the other model solutions and is now in
line with the NAM/CMC and GFS. That being said will generally go
with a blend of forecast solutions this morning with less input from
the ECMWF for the reason just mentioned.

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a clearly defined piece of
energy moving through the central plains. Upper pattern over the
western CONUS is expected to amplify during the day today driving
this energy and the associated cold front through the mid south with
the boundary clearing the Mississippi River by midnight.

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm are already on going across
the central plains this morning. All models are moving precipitation
into northwest Arkansas this morning and spreading into the rest of
the state by late afternoon.  Low pressure will develop on the
aforementioned boundary with drier air punching in behind the
boundary by early evening.

The upper level support will still need to clear the state and this
will probably not happen until sometime late Thursday morning.
Moisture will continue to wrap around the departing system for an
ongoing chance of precipitation.

A general quarter to half inch rainfall is expected with some areas
likely seeing closer to three quarters of an inch of rain. Dynamics
do not support severe weather although a thunderstorm or two can be
be discounted.  Yet another compact upper trough will swing through
the state Thursday night with generally minimal rain chances with
it. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees below normal.

Long Term...Friday through Tuesday

A deep upper trough will be over the eastern half of the country to
begin the long term period with an upper ridge over the western U.S.
The upper trough will move to the east coast by Saturday. The upper
ridge slowly moves east during the weekend and makes it to the east
coast Monday. An upper low over the Pacific Northwest Saturday will
dive south to the desert southwest by Tuesday.

A short wave moving through Arkansas, along with a cold front, will
bring a chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms Friday. High
pressure will be over the area for much of the weekend...though a
weak dry cold front will move through on Sunday. High pressure
returns for Monday. A short wave moves through the area Tuesday with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will begin on
Friday below normal but normal temperatures for this time of year
will return for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99