


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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000 FXUS64 KLZK 151102 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 602 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 -Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through mid-week. -Temperatures are expected to increase to above-normal values over much of the state, with hazardous heat returning by mid-week and persisting through much of the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Current mosaic radar imgry depicted lingering precip activity acrs Wrn AR. Most short-term guidance remains indicative of additional development of overnight thunderstorms over the N/Wrn half of the FA thru into later Tues mrng. QPF progs w/ this activity are also continuing to advertise a few streaks of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall w/ some stronger storms, which could yield some isolated flooding potential, but a more widespread flooding threat is not currently anticipated. Thru the week ahead, the main message wl shift towards hazardous heat persisting over the FA. H500 anticyclonic flow is progged to expand over much of the Srn Cntrl US, w/ a synoptic cdfrnt stalling over the Cntrl Plains near mid-week, and residing as a stationary frnt thru the remainder of the work week. Prior to the arrival of this stalled frnt, daily rain chances wl dwindle to primarily diurnally driven convective activity, w/ more prominent rain chances returning to Nrn AR by Fri invof the aforementioned stalled frnt. The next few days (particularly Wed and Thurs) are expected to host hot aftn temps in the upper 90s acrs the Srn two-thirds of the state, w/ higher humidity levels corresponding to peak heat index values in excess of 105 degrees, necessitating the potential for heat headlines once again. Despite incrsg rain chances on Fri, any potential cool down looks to stay brief, w/ hazardous heat resuming thru the weekend and remainder of the PD. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Scattered precip and VCTS was noted acrs the FA this mrng w/ mixed VFR/MVFR condns. Thru the day, expect precip to continue acrs Nrn terminals w/ intermittent MVFR condns. By this aftn, precip should wane in covg, w/ VFR condns prevailing and BKN to OVC mid-lvl cloud cover at most terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 74 94 74 / 50 10 30 0 Camden AR 95 74 98 73 / 20 0 0 0 Harrison AR 86 72 90 71 / 40 10 30 10 Hot Springs AR 93 73 96 74 / 40 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 94 76 96 76 / 40 10 10 0 Monticello AR 94 77 98 76 / 20 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 91 73 93 72 / 50 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 86 71 91 72 / 50 10 40 0 Newport AR 92 74 96 76 / 50 20 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 94 75 97 76 / 30 10 0 0 Russellville AR 90 73 95 74 / 40 10 20 0 Searcy AR 92 73 96 74 / 40 10 20 0 Stuttgart AR 93 76 96 77 / 30 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ004>006-014-015- 031-039-042-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...72