Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 222322
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
622 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Surface high pressure will slide eastward tonight, allowing for a
brief warmup as a southerly flow returns. The warmup will be brief,
as another slow-moving cold front will be dropping down into
Arkansas from the Plains.
The front will start to move into northern Arkansas late tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night, and will gradually sing southward
toward the AR/LA border by the end of the period.
With a return flow in place, rain chances will be back in the
forecast as the front begins to push into the state tomorrow
afternoon, with rain chances persisting through the remainder of the
term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Model guidance continues to agree that a very unsettled pattern is
expected during the period. While guidance is in generally good
agreement early in the period, the models do diverge with time. As
such, a blend of model solutions seems prudent this afternoon.
Period initiates with a frontal boundary stretched out across the
northern part of the state. Front will slowly move through the state
Wednesday, stall out over the south Wednesday night.
Boundary will lift slowly back to the north as a warm front on
Thursday as an upper low initially in the desert southwest lifts out
and opens up into a trough and drags the front to the north. Front
will act as a focal point for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
As the warm front moves north, a noticeable increase in both dew
points and temperatures will occur. Aforementioned upper trough will
close off once again as it moves into the central plains late in the
work week with a rather stout southwest flow developing. A series of
weak shortwaves will kick out of the trough and bring several rounds
of precipitation to the state as they do.
Associated surface reflection in the central plains early Friday
will race off to the northeast increasing the chances of strong
storms as the atmosphere will become more supportive of severe
weather. Best chances of stronger storms will be over the northwest
half of the state along with the highest rainfall amounts. Rain
chances will continue through the remainder of the extended period
as another cold front approaches. Several inches of rain can not be
ruled over the northern half of the state through the end of the
period. Temperatures will average a few degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period. S/SW winds will
relax overnight before returning to 10 to 20 knots on Tues. Mid/high
clouds are expected to build into the state from the N on Tues
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 48 76 56 73 / 0 10 30 20
Camden AR 45 77 58 76 / 0 0 10 20
Harrison AR 48 76 51 69 / 0 30 20 20
Hot Springs AR 46 77 59 74 / 0 0 20 30
Little Rock AR 48 78 61 74 / 0 0 20 30
Monticello AR 47 76 61 75 / 0 0 10 20
Mount Ida AR 47 77 58 74 / 0 0 20 40
Mountain Home AR 47 77 51 71 / 0 30 30 10
Newport AR 47 76 58 74 / 0 10 20 20
Pine Bluff AR 46 76 60 74 / 0 0 10 30
Russellville AR 47 78 58 72 / 0 10 20 30
Searcy AR 44 76 58 72 / 0 0 20 20
Stuttgart AR 47 76 61 74 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70