Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 241100 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
600 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...Broken clouds with MVFR to VFR ceilings along with
isolated showers will mainly affect inland areas today followed
by clear to mostly clear skies tonight. MVFR conditions in patchy
fog will be possible over interior areas late tonight. Calm to
light west winds at the beginning of the period will be followed
by west to northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots developing by mid
morning, with a light northwest flow expected for tonight. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...An upper trof over the
eastern states moves to near the east coast through tonight while an
associated surface low near northeast Georgia moves to the central
east coast.  A light westerly surface flow over the forecast area
early this morning becomes northwest today and continues through
tonight.  May see some isolated light showers over interior areas
during the late morning into the afternoon hours as the upper trof
moves across the region, but otherwise a dry forecast is expected.

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Flow aloft
flattens during the day Wednesday between system lifting off the
Mid-Atlantic coast and next southern stream upper trof diving
southeast thru the southern Plains. No rain expected Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, upper trof moves quickly southeast out of the
southern Plains to the Lower MS River Valley by daybreak Thursday.
This supports a southeastward advance of next front. The approach
of the upper trof/and frontal ascent within an airmass that
undergoes gradual deep layer moisture modification could bring a
small chance of showers late in the night Wednesday night over the
northwest zones. The upper trof pivots eastward over the deep
south with a steady eastward progression of surface front
Thursday. The result is a modest chance of showers from west to
east during the day. Instability out ahead of this front looks to
remain very marginal with MUCAPE well below 500 J/kg on average.
However, forcing for ascent accompanying the passing shortwave
upper trough/surface front will promote potential of a slight
chance of storms mixed in with the higher chance of showers.
Thursday`s severe weather risk, at this time, appears minimal.
Rain chances end quickly Thursday night as the best forcing with
the upper trof lifts quickly up across the Appalachians. Daily
highs and lows close to seasonal normals. /10

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...On the heels of Thursday`s
system, next piece of mid level energy and next front swings
quickly eastward across the forecast area on Friday, at the base
of long wave upper trof. The latest global models have backed off
on the precipitation chances though with this feature as it
appears there will be limited time for deep layer moisture to
modify. PoPs 10% or less. In the wake of Friday`s front, surface
high pressure eases eastward from the Great Lakes to the northern
Gulf, bringing a nice spring weekend. Heading into the start of
the weekend, daily highs a few degrees below climatology while
overnight lows about 3 to 6 degrees below climatology along the
coast and near normal inland. /10

MARINE...A light to moderate west to northwest flow prevails over
the area through Wednesday.  A southwesterly flow develops Wednesday
night into Thursday morning ahead of a cold front approaching from
the west, then switches to a northerly flow Thursday night as the
front moves through. /29




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