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000
FXUS64 KMOB 260542 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR ceilings will persist through the forecast period with some
fog developing through the early morning hours of Friday. This may
result in some MVFR visibility reductions at times. The greatest
potential for fog should remain along or just north of the I-10
corridor between 08z and 13z. Fog should quickly dissipate after
13z with increased surface heating and mixing. Southerly winds
should develop Friday morning and become gusty from mid morning
into the afternoon. Dry conditions should persist through the
period. /JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/

.NEAR TERM...(Now through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Upper ridging will slowly build eastward during the overnight
hours as the axis of an upper level trough swings into the Plains.
At the surface, southerly flow will persist, filtering in warm and
moist air. Current conditions across the forecast area are on the
warm side, as temps have risen into the lower to mid 80s under
partly cloudy skies. Skies will remain partly cloudy over the
most part tonight and winds are expected to become calm, leading
to radiational cooling for our overnight hours. This will allow
temps to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. The
upper ridge will strengthen a bit on Friday morning before it
begins to exit the area as the trough to our west slides eastward.
Seasonably warm temperatures are expected again on Friday, as
highs warm into the lower to mid 80s. /73

&&

.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Dry and seasonably warm conditions will persist through the
weekend as upper ridging and surface high pressure maintain their
hold on the sensible weather pattern. The aforementioned trough
to our west will pivot northward before it becomes absorbed in the
ridging aloft. Another closed low and trough will then swing into
the Plains again and the upper ridge will strengthen over the
southeast. Temps through the weekend will rise into the lower 80s
during the day and fall into the lower to mid 60s during the
overnight hours.

The closed low over the plains will open as it moves to the
northeast at the start of the upcoming work week. The ridge will
maintain its hold through at least Monday, with another dry and
seasonal day is on tap. The upper ridge will continue to push to
the east through the day on Tuesday, as the weakening trough moves
into the Mississippi Valley. The trough will continue to weaken
through the day and flow aloft will become more zonal by Tuesday
afternoon. There may be enough forcing to lend isolated
thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, with the better chances
during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Confidence is not overly
high on the coverage and for now will cap PoPs to 30%. Another
ridge begins to build eastward on Wednesday, with dry conditions
expected to return. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Onshore flow will persist and then strengthen late Friday and
especially this weekend. Winds may become sustained between 15-25
kt over the marine area through much of the weekend. Seas may
build to 5-8 ft over the Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday.
Small Craft Advisories will likely become necessary this weekend.
/73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  81  66  80  65  82  64  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  20
Pensacola   67  78  68  78  67  79  65  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Destin      68  78  68  78  68  79  66  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   61  84  61  84  59  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  20
Waynesboro  63  84  63  83  61  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0   0  30  20  30
Camden      63  83  62  83  60  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  20  20
Crestview   60  84  61  84  59  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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