Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280358
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1158 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Hot weather will continue early this week. The remnants of
Subtropical Storm Alberto will bring rain chances mid to late week.
Dry weather then returns for next weekend. Temperatures will remain
above normal into next weekend, although not as warm as early in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 954 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Adjusted initial temps to match the current trends but kept the low
temp the same. Previous discussion as follows...

At the moment feel by 00Z the coverage of any convection will be
too low to mention. Thus plan to go dry tonight.

Most clouds will clear out overnight with high pressure in control.
The model blend looks reasonable for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure will control the weather on Monday. Subsidence ahead
of Alberto should keep a lid on convection for the most part during
the afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but odds are
too low to mention in the forecast.

Dry conditions continue Monday night, but chances for rain will
begin Tuesday afternoon as the remnants of Alberto move toward the
area. Models are similar with the track of the remnants, but differ
on timing and strength. It appears that the low will go into western
Indiana, with the heaviest precipitation near the path of the low.

With the low moving into the area, the model initialization`s PoPs
look reasonable, with likely or higher category PoPs all areas by
Wednesday.

Hot conditions continue into Tuesday with highs in the 90s most
areas, but rain will keep temperatures only around 80 for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

ECMWF suggest tropical remnants over Indiana on Wednesday
night...quickly moving to the northeast. Have kept the suggested
likely pops given the tropical moisture on Wednesday night into
Thursday.

On Thursday Night into Friday the ECMWF suggests strong ridging
building across Indiana and the Great Lakes from the Central
Plains. Meanwhile within the lower levels a wash out frontal
boundary appears to linger near the Ohio River. Again...a the
warm and humid air mass will be in place across Indiana...and now
with a surface feature to provide additional lower level
convergence...this along with daytime heating warrants pops into
Saturday...particularly near the boundary in the southern parts
of the forecast area.

Trended toward a dry forecast by Sunday as the ECMWF suggests dry
easterly flow arriving as the boundary slips south toward
Tennessee and strong ridging remains in place northwest of Indiana
providing lee side subsidence.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 28/0600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1158 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the period...with one
caveat. Dewpoint depressions are continuing to lessen with clearing
skies and with calm winds...the potential exists for a dip in
visibilities across the terminals. Some short-range model solutions
suggest visibilities could drop into the MVFR category around 08-
09Z. Did not include within this TAF cycle as some forecast
soundings do not depict this scenario occurring. However, did want
to mention here as future updates will keep an eye on the
possibility. Otherwise, winds will begin to pick back up during the
late morning Monday...generally from the east at up to 8-10 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/KH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...MRD


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