287
FXUS63 KLMK 061943
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
243 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Arctic cold front will drop into the region tonight bringing
  another round of scattered snow showers/squalls and scattered snow
  flurries.  The highest risk of snow showers and squalls will be
  east of I-65, with a lesser chance to the west.

* The weekend will start off cold with a slow moderation in
  temperatures late this weekend and into next week.  Overall model
  trends continue to be weaker with the temperature warm up given
  the amount of snow/ice pack we have on the ground across Indiana
  and the northern half of Kentucky.

* Next chance of precipitation, in the form of rain, will arrive
  Tuesday Night.

* Carefully watching the potential for another wintry system for
  Valentine`s Day Weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Quick moving clipper system has exited the area after dropping just
a small coating of snow across the far northeastern sections of the
forecast area.  With the threat of snow ending, the Winter Weather
Advisory has been cancelled early.  Satellite imagery shows a
stratus deck heading into the region from the north with ongoing
stratus across the eastern sections.  An area of sunny skies was
noted over our southwest areas, including the Bowling Green area. A
gradient of temperature was noted across the region with readings
generally in the lower 30s out in the Bluegrass region.  In the I-65
corridor, temperatures have spiked under the sun with readings in
the lower 40s.  Down in the southern and southwest areas where
snow/ice pack is considerably less, afternoon temps have warmed into
the upper 40s and lower 50s.  For the remainder of the afternoon, no
significant weather is expected across the area.

For this evening and tonight, a cold front will drop into the region
from the northwest and shift our winds around to the northwest.
We`ll see gusty northwest winds this evening.  A secondary Arctic
front will drop into the region later this evening.  Ahead of this
Arctic boundary, a band of snow showers and possible snow squalls
will drop from southeast Indiana into portions of central and
eastern Kentucky.  Model soundings show steep lapse rates and good
saturation of the DGZ late this evening into the early overnight.
Based on current high-resolution guidance, the highest risk of snow
shower/squall activity looks to be focused generally east of the I-
65 corridor.  As these snow showers move across the region, they
will likely drop a coating of snow and create slick spots on area
roadways.  While snow showers may reach as far west as the I-65
corridor, most guidance shows a rather sharp cutoff in snow showers
west of I-65.  Clearing is forecast to move into the region late
tonight and towards dawn.  Overnight lows will drop into the upper
single digits across southeast Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
central Kentucky.  Elsewhere, lows will drop into the upper teens in
the I-65 corridor with lower 20s down across the Bowling Green area
and areas to the southwest.  Wind chills early Saturday morning will
drop to near zero across the Bluegrass and look to remain above Cold
Weather Advisory criteria.

Given the anticipated snow showers/squall potential, will be issuing
an SPS with WFO JKL for this evening/overnight to cover the snowfall
threat and potential for some negative travel impacts.

For Saturday/Saturday Night, deep northerly flow will be in place
across the region with strong cold advection holding strong through
the day.  Initially, we`ll start off partly sunny, but model time-
height cross sections show some low-level moisture which leads me to
think that we`ll see a bit of stratocu development during the day.
Highs under the cold advection will not rise all that much, with
readings expected to be in the mid 20s over southern Indiana and the
northern half of Kentucky (especially in areas with considerable
snow/ice pack).  Down south, highs will struggle to reach freezing.

A secondary cold front is expected to drop into the region Saturday
night and we`ll probably have a bit of cloud cover associated with
that which will keep us from radiating out.  In general, lows will
range from the lower teens over southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky with upper teens/lower 20s across southern Kentucky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Sunday through Tuesday...

Northwest flow will continue across the region.  A weak perturbation
will pass to our northeast and may bring another shot of snow to
portions of southeast Ohio and into West Virgina.  High pressure
should bring mainly dry weather to our region, with a weak south to
southwesterly flow developing.  As expected, the models have
continued to trend down the warming trend as the models recognize
the depth/coverage of our ongoing snow/ice pack.  Highs on Sunday
will struggle to reach freezing across portions of southern Indiana
and into the northern half of Kentucky.  Am more confident of warmer
temperatures down across southern KY where readings look to warm
into the mid-upper 40s with a few spots hitting 50.  Lows Sunday
night will drop back into the lower-middle 20s across much of the
region.  Any melting of snow/ice during the day will likely refreeze
Sunday night resulting in black ice development Monday morning.

Upper ridging will continue to build into the region on Monday with
partly to mostly sunny skies expected.  Blended guidance here
suggests that we`ll warm into the upper 40s to near 50 across
southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky.  That probably
is a bit overdone given the snow/ice pack.  Again, am more confident
of mid-upper 50s down across our southern CWA where there isn`t much
snow/ice on the ground.  While temps may be overdone, dewpoints look
to be above freezing finally, so significant melting of ice/snow
should commence on Monday.  Lows Monday night look to be a bit
warmer with ongoing southerly flow with readings in the middle/upper
30s.

Tuesday`s highs are challenging as the models insist that we`ll push
into the upper 50s and lower 60s, with mid 60s down across southern
Kentucky.  Again, this is probably overdone across the snow/ice pack
areas, but overall temps look to be a bit warmer on Tuesday as we`ll
lose a bit of the snow/ice.  Across the snow/ice pack areas, temps
will probably get into the upper 40s, which would put us above
normal on temps for the first time since January 14th.

Tuesday Night through Friday...

By Tuesday night, a weak mid-level perturbation within the southern
stream will move toward the region spreading light precipitation
across the area.  Critical thicknesses suggest all rain across our
region, but I can`t rule out a wintry mix on the northern edge of
the precipitation shield, probably just north of our forecast area.

Still seeing a bit of a baroclinic boundary setting up across the
region for Wednesday through Thursday with multiple perturbations
moving along the northern edge of the southern ridge axis.  This
could bring episodic bouts of precipitation (liquid) to the region
through at least Friday.

Beyond Friday...

The forecast looks increasingly interesting as we head into the
Valentine`s Day weekend.  Experimental signal guidance for the last
month has been hinting at a stronger signal passage in this time
frame.  Latest Euro solution shows the aforementioned baroclinic
boundary getting pulled southward on Friday.  As this occurs, an
upper level trough axis will eject out of the southwest and head
across the southern Plains and towards the SE US.  This could result
in a southern storm system yielding a severe weather threat to the
southeast and a possible wintry threat to portions of the TN/OH
Valleys on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Fast moving clipper continues to move off to the southeast this
afternoon.  Snow has already ended at HNB/SDF/LEX and generally rain
maybe mixed with some snow will be seen at RGA over the next hour
and then that should be it.  In the wake of the clipper, look for
MVFR cigs this afternoon with winds shifting from the southwest to
the northwest and becoming quite gusty.  Sustained winds of 10-15kts
with gusts of 20-25kts will be seen across the region this afternoon
and into this evening.

For tonight, MVFR stratus is expected with light snow flurries
and/or snow showers moving across the region.  Will continue to run
the PROB30 at SDF/LEX to account for this.  Stratus looks to break
up late tonight and towards dawn Saturday with winds continuing to
decrease and shift to the northeast by sunrise Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ