Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
434 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

Scattered light showers will end this morning, although skies
should remain mostly cloudy. Highs will be from 70 to 75. Chances
for light rain will return tonight and continue into Wednesday
with highs warming to near 80 by Wednesday. Temperatures will
continue to warm into next weekend with highs from 84 to 88 each


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

A very dry airmass continued over the area early this morning.
Precipitation amounts yesterday east of the Illinois line were
hardly enough to measure a hundredth of an inch. Soundings early
tonight continue to show a very dry environment over the forecast
area. Given weak forcing and the dry conditions in the lower
atmospheric layers, expect very limited precipitation except for
for some light showers north of the Michigan line. Some of the
WPC Convective Allowing models have been really struggling with
this environment; namely the HRW WRF, so will favor persistence.
Rain chances will return tonight as low level theta E surges


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

Have followed the general model trend toward a more suppressed
solution involving low level theta E flux into the area Sunday
night into Monday. Have lowered rain chances in this regard.

An upper level ridge will then build into the region by midweek
causing temperatures to rise above normal. The GFS has trended
west with the position of the upper level ridge which will favor
more subsidence with limited shower and storm chances. Highs will
likely reach from 84 to 88 from Thursday through the weekend. The
best chances for any rain or storms will be the more favorable
diurnal times from late afternoon into early evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

High pressure over northern Indiana will gradually slide east into
western Pennsylvania by the end of the forecast period. VFR
conditions persist with solid mid level moisture with a few
isolated sprinkles breaking into high based broken diurnal
cumulus field by midday.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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