Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 242324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
724 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
Wednesday through Friday, followed by drier conditions for the
weekend. Temperatures will be mild through the end of the week,
then warm into the low 80s on Sunday and upper 80s for Memorial


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

High pressure at the surface and upper ridging will keep the area
dry through this evening. Easterly low-level flow and mostly clear
skies will keep temperatures cool overnight with lows in the 50s.
A low pressure system developing over the Arklatex region will
lift into the central Plains by Wednesday morning, with the warm
front bringing convection up from the south early. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread north
across the entirety of the forecast area by mid-day. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms, but instability will be limited
by a lack of daytime heating due to cloud cover. Do think there
will probably be some breaks in the clouds though throughout the
day which could drive surface CAPE up to around 2000 J/kg by
evening. The best shear also appears to be during the evening as
850 mb winds increase to around 40 kts in conjunction with a
shortwave riding up from the southwest. Heavy rain will also be
possible with PWs around 1.8 inches.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

Shortwave energy rotating around the closed low that will slowly
track from the central Plains east-northward into the Tennessee
and then Ohio valleys will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area through Friday. The marginal risk for
severe storms does extend through Thursday. In fact, surface
instability is forecast to be better Thursday according to the
NAM, but shear is slightly less. Moisture will remain quite high
though and WPC has the area outlooked for a risk of excessive
rain. A cooler and somewhat drier airmass is expected on Friday as
the flow shifts northwesterly, but showers will likely continue
with the low in the vicinity of the region.

Upper ridging returns on Saturday bringing mild and dry weather to
kick off the weekend. Subsidence will then cause the region to
warm going into Memorial Day, when heat indices are forecast to be
in the low 90s. It will then be even hotter on Tuesday with highs
in the upper 80s to around 90 and heat indices in the low to mid


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

SCT clouds early this evening will increase tonight as a
shortwave and associated moisture move north from the Gulf. During
the early morning hours, rain is expected to overspread the area.
Perhaps a thunderstorm could be had, but timing out exactly when is
still too uncertain for inclusion in this TAF issuance. The question
after this batch of rain goes through is how long do the debris
clouds linger across the area because this will play into how strong
thunderstorms can become tomorrow afternoon and evening. Initial
signs point to a possible break of clouds during the late morning to
early afternoon. The best chance for severe thunderstorms resides in
the late afternoon into the evening hours. Aviation models also
indicate that flight conditions will be able to drop into MVFR
during the morning hours tomorrow. A 30-40 kt low level jet is
expected to be overhead tomorrow, but stagnated mixing until cloud
cover can break likely means wind gusts around 20 kts or so hold off
until the afternoon. Winds initially out of the northeast ahead of
the front veer around to the south by the end of the day.





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