Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
633 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Cloudy with a lingering morning flurry yet continued cold otherwise
today with highs 25 to 30. Skies clear overnight with lows in the
teens. Another system will bring a wintry mix late Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 205 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Lagging mid level trough and associated moisture plume in the
process of re-seeding still moist boundary layer. Expect mainly
flurries/very light snow through daybreak north of US 30 and spits
of fzdz south.

Ridging follows afterward for today yet given how extensive low
clouds are upstream, little chance of seeing any sunshine as
clearing looks to hold off until after sunset.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Pesky and persistent split flow regime continues with next wave in
the pipeline ejecting out Tue night and through the upper
midwest/wrn lakes Wed. Stalled sern US frontal zone will bottle up
most of the associated moisture advection while upper wave
bifurcates west, essentially splitting the CWA from better
associated forcings. Thus a brief period of accumulating snow late
Tue night followed by a brief mix Wed morning then rain Wed aftn
before ending as warm sector deepens further.

Thereafter focus turns toward the weekend as parent sw US upper low
finally ejects out and lifts through the lakes. While alot of spread
exists yet with sfc cyclone track, composite pattern aloft of a
deeper/more phased system would support a farther west track of
which puts the CWA squarely in the warm sector.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Ceilings highly variable across the area this morning as light
snow pulls east but plenty of low level moisture remains. This
leads to a challenging aviation forecast for today. Low clouds
have cleared out of KSBN but models continue to show a period of
MVFR conditions again later this morning through early afternoon
with some subtle CAA and diurnal mixing. Held KFWA in MVFR through
the day but some indications in forecast soundings that ceilings
could climb above 3 kft during the afternoon. VFR expected during
the evening but some lake clouds could impact KSBN overnight.





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