Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 142308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
608 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Issued at 401 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Clouds will continue to spread over the region ahead of an
incoming area of low pressure. Clouds will provide some insulation
overnight to promote lows in the upper 20s. Snow spreads in from
the south early Thursday morning, which can result in some
slippery travel conditions for the morning commute. Through
Thursday, freezing rain and sleet can mix in at times as
temperatures warm above freezing. Precipitation comes to an end
Thursday night. For the extended forecast, below normal
temperatures and couple of weak passing disturbances will be


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Latest water vapor imagery and RUC analysis depicting deep closed
low over Arkansas this afternoon. Surface analysis showing
inverted trof associated with upper low extending from the eastern
gulf coast up into the Tennessee valley while high pressure was
still centered over the southern great lakes. Upper low expected
to lift northeast into southern Illinois tonight which will have
main surge of low level WAA displaced east of our area. Resulting
forecast soundings suggesting isothermal layer near 0C in the low
levels which will complicate precip type. Northern edge of precip
will reach the southern CWA after midnight tonight and begin as
primarily snow as good surface based cold layer initially should
have any partial melting changing back over to snow...with just a
possible mix with sleet. Surface temperatures expected to hover at
or slightly above freezing during the daytime hours and road
surface model indicating temperatures in mid-upper 30s and diurnal
timing would also trend surface temperatures more above freezing
as the event unfolds Thursday so plan for now is to hold off on
any headlines. Upper low slides east along the Ohio valley
Thursday afternoon leaving deformation axis moving across our area
and will have snow/rain chances continuing through the end of the


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

System quickly exits to the east Thursday night and despite
lingering cyclonic flow winds expected to maintain a southerly
component to the westerly flow and limit any lake effect potential
for our area. Surface ridge axis will extend from the gulf coast
up through the Ohio valley and provide quiet weather for Friday.
Pattern flattens somewhat and brings a couple of weak systems
through region over the weekend. Generally quiet weather pattern
beginning next week with temperatures continuing well below


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 601 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

VFR conditions through 10Z - KFWA and 14Z - KSBN. Cigs lower
quickly after that time as the northern edge of the system
overspreads the region. As precipitation forms and increases in
coverage...visby will drop as well to between 1 and 3 miles.

The greatest challenge will be timing the transition from
snow/sleet/rain. With the warm layer overrunning the near to sub
freezing surface temperatures expect that there will be a period
of sleet and possibly freezing rain during the early morning
12-16Z...especially at KFWA. The warm air will surge north and
shift eastward throughout the day and this will favor a rain/snow
mix for KFWA. KSBN expected to remain cold enough to keep
precipitation all snow for most of the day.

Easterly winds will pick up during the day...especially KFWA and





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