Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
711 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 412 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Snow is expected to develop late tonight, mainly south and west
of a line from near Winamac to Marion Indiana. Up to 4 inches of
snow is expected, but relegated to far southwest and southern
White County Indiana through midday Saturday. Elsewhere, the snow,
which may mix with rain along and south of Route 30, will see
little if any impact. Temperatures will warm back into the 50s for
Monday through much of next week. This warmth, however, will
bring rain back to the area and it could be locally heavy,
especially late Monday night through Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Primary focus on intense shortwave trough exiting Nebraska
panhandle late this afternoon and to move into short amplitude
downstream ridge before being sheared/shunted southeastward into
lingering intense southern New England vortex. Isentropic
upglide/decent moisture tap of 4 g/kg mixing ratios on I300K
approaching far southwest CWA in 15-18 UTC timeframe associated
with inflection point thereafter strong/deep northeast to east
flow shunts moisture/lift farther south with time, largely
associated with southern lobe extension of 1044 mb ridge,
presently near James Bay that moves eastward through Quebec
through Sunday. Relegated headlines/winter weather advisory to
White Co. in collaborative effort to mark southward trend of
highest qpf/wet snow accums.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Moderation to near/slightly above normal for much of next week as
southeast Canada ridge noses southward through the Appalachian
spline early next week, with gradual veering of low level flow.
Southwest mid/upper level flow from Pacific baja, amid
increasingly strong/deeper low level feed from GOMEX sets the
stage for increasing moisture flux into region. Southeast CO
cyclogenesis about Monday afternoon to eject northeastward through
the Mid MS Valley/western Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon
with increasing PWAT to near 1.5 inches across region. Some
uncertainty yet with respect to influence of downstream intense
ridge/cyclone over northern Atlantic though at least a decent
rainfall event appears late Monday night into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

VFR this period as strong lakes ridge persists. Sfc low pressure
tracking toward the OH river Sat aftn will yield an increasing erly
gradient with gusts aoa 20kts late period.


IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for



LONG TERM...Murphy

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