Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 091028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
628 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Dry and hazy weather will persist through Saturday. After
chilly morning lows, temperatures will rise to close to 80
degrees today and then near 84 Saturday. A wet period is ahead
early next week Sunday into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are still
uncertain but have some promise to exceed a half an inch.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The dry pattern will persist through Saturday with afternoon
relative humidities dropping below 30 percent. Updated drought
conditions on the Drought Monitor indicated worsening conditions
over the entire area. Rainfall amounts over the past nearly 4 weeks
have been only around 0.25" to 0.60" (Ft Wayne 0.34" which is
second lowest in 126 years; and South Bend 0.58" which is 4th
lowest in 130 years). Will continue to mention fire danger in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook today and Saturday with finer fuels
drying out. Will also keep hazy conditions with persistent smokey
skies from upstream fires. Diurnal spreads have been accentuated
by ongoing dry/drought conditions with 30 to 35 (low to high
differences) degrees common, so have bumped up highs a little and
lowered lows a few degrees tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

An upper low is expected to form over the Upper Great Lakes region
early next week. This may be the only real hope for rainfall
through next week. The GFS and EC are favored being spectral
models. These models have come into very good agreement with each
other handling the mass fields associated with this system. There
continues to be considerable spread among ensemble members, with
the operation models providing reasonable guidance. Did favor one
major analog (June 3 2001) which matched the ongoing pattern
very well. This analog produced 1.25" to 2.50" of rain for the
event. So current thinking is event total rainfall amounts from
0.75" to 1.50" seems reasonable. Unseasonably cool conditions
from Sunday through Tuesday will be associated with the upper low.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Light northwesterly winds prevail through the forecast period on
the western periphery of an upper low and the east side of surface
ridging. This pattern will keep the area dry and VFR flight
conditions in place. Some haze with minor vsby reductions for
both terminals still possible after 18z today due to Canadian
wildfire smoke working its way into the region.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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