Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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037
FXUS63 KIWX 221158
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
758 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will continue today, with highs in the
upper 60s and 70s. Low severe weather threat today, though areas
south and east of US 24 could see some gustier winds in any stronger
storms. The primary concern is heavy rain and localized flooding, as
some areas have already seen 2 to 3 inches. We`ve seen river rises,
with some going into flood stage, so monitor our AHPS page or the
latest river flood warnings/statements for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will be the forecast theme
today into Saturday, with an upper level low overhead, and the
associated surface low in Illinois. The occluding surface low will
lift northeastward through the short term, reaching southeast Lower
Michigan by Saturday afternoon. Several shortwaves will ripple
through aloft, kicking off bands of heavier showers and even a few
thunderstorms. Kept thunder chances isolated until this afternoon
when we get a little bit better instability. Bands today will lift
up towards the north as they rotate around the low, with activity
becoming more isolated/scattered overnight and then redeveloping
slightly Saturday afternoon in the east when the system lifts out
and brings a surface trough through. Another cooler day is in store,
with highs in the upper 60s north of US 30, and the 70s south.
Saturday will be slightly warmer, with most areas reaching into the
70s. Low severe weather threat today, though areas south and east of
US 24 could see some gustier winds in any stronger storms. The
primary concern is heavy rain and localized flooding, as some areas
have already seen 2-3 inches. We`ve seen river rises, with some
going into flood stage, so monitor our AHPS page or the latest river
flood warnings/statements for details.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Saturday night into Sunday we deal with the exiting low and building
ridge, so we`ll see a gradual diminishing trend to any remaining
showers/thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s and low 80s,
warmest south of US 24. Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in
the upper 50s and 60s.

The amplified ridge building in overhead will keep weather quiet
Sunday night into Tuesday morning/afternoon, when the next low
pressure system begins to impact the area. The surface low and upper
level trough will swing through Upper Michigan by Tuesday evening,
so initial precipitation may be more associated with warm
air/moisture advection, before the surface trough/cold front swings
across the CWA during the day on Wednesday. Kept going chances for
showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the 15-21z time frame.
Heat concerns will return, with highs climbing into the mid 80s by
Tuesday, and the mid-upper 80s by Wednesday into Friday. Slight
chances for showers/storms continue into Friday, with a stationary
front to our west. Models are in disagreement during this time
frame, so have left low-end consensus pops for this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 750 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Slow moving upper level low. low level easterly flow, and good
deal of low level moisture will will result in IFR/MVFR conditions
this morning, MVFR conditions later this afternoon, and trend back
to IFR/LIFR conditions tonight. More notable improvements are not
expected until after this forecast valid period. Bulk of heavier
rain showers will affect areas north of the terminals this
morning, but additional showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this afternoon into early this evening.
The greater instability is expected across the KFWA vicinity
where tempo TSRA has been included.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...Marsili


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