432
FXUS63 KIWX 271737 CCA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
137 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds this
  afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm and unsettled with periodic rain and
  storms through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Decaying arc of convection advancing newd out of wrn/cntrl IN will
be out of ern areas around daybreak. Otherwise broad warm advection
continues downstream of sfc cyclone and potent parent wave aloft
over nw IA with modest theta-e riding poking into the srn lakes. LLJ
weakens through morning and this aftn before some modest
strengthening occurs tonight. Adequate low level theta-e ridge
remains in place and with substantial diurnal destabilization will
lead to redevelopment of showers/storms this aftn within sfc
confluence zone broadly pinned through nrn IN/nw OH. This is
expected to consolidate in time this evening as it shifts into nw
IN/srn MI and where it is likely to persist into early Sun morning
before lifting out. Some of these storms this aftn could be strong
to severe with marginal hail/gusty winds.

Sun expected to be dry and quite warm as heights build through the
wrn OH valley in response to next plains bowling ball wrecking havoc
out west. Expect widespread 80+ degree temps. Plains low will
release on a similar trajectory as the current sys, into sw ON by
late Mon as cold front washes out ewd. Still some chance for showers
late Sun night/but weakening low level flow/forcing portents little
more. Brief/shallow sfc ridge follows Tue before trailing cold front
in association with yet another potent nrn plains shortwave stalls
out locally early Wed.

Thereafter late period muddles considerably owing to stalled frontal
zone and continued parade of shortwave disturbances out of the wrn
US. Suffice it to say unsettled wx the expectation through DY7
(Fri). Otherwise area will stay on warm side of the flow aloft with
unseasonably warm temps persisting through the week before cooling
down next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong broad southwesterly low level flow will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon with some gusts to 35 knots at
times. This southwest low level flow has maintained a moist low
level air mass across the area which will allow for weak to
moderate surface based instability through early evening. The
limiting factor, at least through early evening, for more
substantial shower/storm coverage is lack of a clear
focusing/forcing mechanism. Expecting a stronger uptick on
shower/storm coverage later this evening into the overnight
hours as low jet ramps up. Moisture convergence with the low
level jet and potential interaction from leftover outflow
boundaries from convection may allow for period of regeneration
of thunderstorms and some training of storms potential during
the overnight hours. Forcing mechanisms in terms of low/mid
level moisture convergence looks to maximize from northeast
Illinois into northwest Indiana, and thus have hit
shower/embedded thunderstorm potential a bit harder for KSBN
overnight into early Sunday. Mainly VFR conditions expected
this period, although any stronger showers and storms will have
temporary vsby/cigs restrictions. Have also included a brief
LLWS mention at KFWA to account for northward migration of the
low level jet.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Marsili