Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191817
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
217 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase this afternoon and
evening, with highs climbing to around the mid 80s south of US
30. Elsewhere, expect temperatures to linger in the mid-upper 70s.
Cooler temperatures will round out the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tomorrow)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Vigorous storms developing quickly this aftn within a zone of
substantial sfc based instability and weak forcing invof stationary
frontal zone. Lack of flow/shear will keep potential storm severity
in check however similar to last evening water loading within high
moisture content airmass poses a local microburst threat especially
along ern flank of small scale cold pools in more cluster convection.
Bulk of near term activity expected to follow south of US30 with
additional development later this aftn invof trailing outflow
boundary extending swwd from short convective segment over srn MI.

More uncertain scenario overnight with varying CAMS based
solutions/evolutions. Near term convective overturning and
stabilization after sunset suggests a waning in additional
shower/storm development especially from late evening through Wed
morning which lies counter to some deterministic solutions like the
RAP which are much more bullish stemming from ewd progression of
large scale disturbance out of IA. At the least will give a nod
toward near term guidance/trends and knock likely pops down
overnight.

Passage of upstream disturbance will push frontal zone south into
cntrl IN Wed. Some risk for additional showers south of US24 in
Indiana mainly late morning into early aftn tied to diurnal
heating/destabilization but focus appears much better through cntrl
IN. Nonetheless drier and cooler across the remainder of the area
within post frontal airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Development of vigorous upper low over the mid MO valley and ewd
evolution primary challenge this period. Surprisingly med range
spectral solutions fairly similar aloft and suggest dry wx holds Wed
night and Thu before active frontal zone bucks back north into the
srn lakes Thu night with following showers/storms through Friday
night.

Ridging sfc and aloft then build through next weekend with
moderating temps and dry wx.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

A warm front is draped northwest to southeast just south of the
MI/IN border with remnant MVFR CIGs continuing to slowly erode
from the southwest toward VFR conditions. Sfc heating will allow
for thunderstorms to move in with ample DCAPE and PWs close to
2in. As such, a heavy rain and a thunderstorm wind threat is
possible this afternoon with the most likely area south of US-30,
including FWA, but SBN could get into a few thunderstorms before
evening timeframe. VISBY could also be reduced in storms with
heavy rain.

Cooler air begins to sag south overnight allowing some lowering of
CIGs into MVFR conditions. Some lowering of VISBY is also possible
by Wed AM into VFSkipperR. Winds will remain below 10 kts for the
period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/Roller
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Roller


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