Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 222333
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
733 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool easterly flow will wedge against the eastern slopes of
the Blue Ridge tonight, while an area of low pressure brings
rain for the Mid Atlantic. After the rain exits by Saturday
afternoon, winds will become gusty until high pressure arrives
on Sunday to provide dry weather for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain becomes widespread overnight.

2) Gusty winds will arrive by Saturday afternoon.

Clouds and rain had been slower to arrive thanks to the dry
airmass we had in place despite the easterly flow. As we head
through the evening radar trends and high-res models show rain
overspreading the area from south to north with most of our area
covered by midnight tonight.

No major changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion


An easterly flow has taken shape across the Mid Atlantic. This
cool and damp flow should wedge against the eastern slopes of
the Blue Ridge later this evening. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure developing along the Gulf Coast will move northeastward
to bring increasing clouds and rain chances by this evening.
Rain should become widespread by sunset with steadier rainfall
persisting throughout the overnight. One to two inches are
possible along the Blue Ridge, but amounts could stay under an
inch to the west. The dry antecedent conditions have made any
flooding risk appear to be very low.

During early Saturday morning, low clouds will be prevalent
with patchy fog also possible. As the wind spirals from the
east to the north and eventually to the northwest, the cool
wedge will gradually begin to erode. By Saturday afternoon, the
wind should become gusty as the rain subsides and skies begin to
clear. Gusts could exceed 40 mph along the southern Blue Ridge
and 30 mph elsewhere on Saturday evening, and there could be a
few downed trees and power lines due to the combination of wet
soil and the expected wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry weather expected for this period.

2) Gusty northwest winds for Saturday night, calming on Sunday.

Looking at the start of Saturday night, rain will have exited
the region to the east in the wake of a cold frontal passage
earlier in the day. Rapid pressure rises as high pressure builds
in will bring another round of strong wind gusts from the
northwest, possibly reaching 45 mph at times along the Blue
Ridge and other ridgetops. Wind speeds are expected to diminish
by morning as high pressure ridging settles along the
Appalachian chain.

Expect abundant sunshine both Sunday and Monday as high
pressure remains over the lower Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals for the second half of March,
though did reduce afternoon highs by a degree or two from model
guidance given easterly windflow off the Atlantic. Expect
increasing clouds Monday evening into the overnight as another
cold front approached from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Likely chances for rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

2) Lower confidence in rain for Thursday, dry weather expected
for Friday.

3) Near seasonal temperatures expected for late March.

Low pressure shifting from the central Plains toward the
western Great Lakes on Monday night will draw an associated
cold front eastward from the Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday
to reach the central Appalachians by Wednesday morning. This
will bring our next chance of rain for Tuesday night and
Wednesday. However, with no fetch of deep moisture ahead of the
front, rainfall amounts at this point do not appear to by
impressive, with most locations receiving less than a half
inch.

Long range weather forecast models are hinting at the
possibility of a wave of low pressure developing along the
Florida Atlantic coast on Thursday, which may radiate additional
rainfall inland across the Mid-Atlantic as it passes up the
coast. Low confidence on how this will play out at this point,
with precipitation possibly not making it much further west than
the I-95 corridor through Thursday night. Friday is expected to
be dry as high pressure returns.

Near-seasonable temperatures are expected through the period.
Overnight lows will generally hold above freezing, with
Wednesday night offering the best chance for temperatures to
fall below freezing, mainly across the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...

Ceilings will drop to MVFR then IFR this evening as rain moves
northward across the entire area. Vsbys will likely run 1 to 4sm
with rain possibly becoming moderate at times.

Poor flying weather due to low cigs will continue with the rain
into Sat morning, then front moves east allowing winds to turn
northwest and drying things out. Still could see lingering MVFR
at BLF through the end of this taf period.

Winds will be gusty Sat afternoon from the northwest around
20-25kts, with the stronger winds arrive by the end of the taf
period.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A gusty northwest wind should persist into Saturday night but
eventually diminish by early Sunday morning as high pressure
builds across the Mid Atlantic. Good flying weather is expected
for Sunday and Monday. Clouds should increase on Tuesday, but
conditions should remain VFR. A low pressure system will arrive
during Tuesday night into Wednesday to bring the next chance of
rain and IFR/MVFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ020-024.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PW/WP


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