Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 251943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Cloud cover has slowly scattered out from west to east throughout
the course of the day, leaving the eastern counties under bkn to ovc
cloud cover the longest. This has created ~10 degree temp gradient
with MSL at 74 degrees and FTP currently at 63 degrees. This
afternoon`s breezy northwesterly flow will slack after sunset
leaving light and variable winds.

An upper-level closed low and a sfc low dragging a cold front will
slide into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Cloud cover will filter back
in this evening/tonight ahead of this system with showers sliding
into the northwestern counties by midnight. Overnight lows will be
near normal in the lower 50s.

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The highest coverage of showers will be Thursday morning into the
early afternoon as the cold front moves into the forecast area.
Models are in better agreement on the track of the sfc low, moving it
either across north AL or just south. Previously, there were runs
tracking it to our northwest, allowing for a better chance of
thunderstorms. Models agree with swinging the upper-level closed low
overhead and with the weak lift from the front, will keep isolated
thunderstorms in through Thursday afternoon. Additional showers are
possible behind the cold front but will taper off from west to east
Thurs evening leaving dry conditions late Thurs night and for Friday.
Temps will be about 10 degrees below normal on Thursday with
overcast skies and the rainfall leaving highs only in the lower 60s
but they will rebound back into the upper 60s/lower 70s for Friday as
cloud cover decreases through the day. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 40s for Thurs and Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The extended portion of the forecast begins Friday night, with a
departing H5 trof exiting to the E/NE. At the same time, a ridge of
high pressure at the sfc is building into the area from the upper
Midwest. This should set the stage for a nice weekend across the
Tennessee Valley, especially for any outdoor activities. Northerly
winds Saturday will keep daytime highs in the `cooler` side, climbing
only into the upper 60s/lower 70s for many locations. Sunday will be
a near repeat of Saturday, with temps maybe a degree or so less (as
the center of the sfc high is overhead). Morning lows will generally
range from 45-50F each day, with a warming trend on tap for the
beginning of the new work week.

As the sfc high shifts E of the area on Monday, building ridging
across the Central CONUS will shift E on Monday/Tuesday, with
southerly winds increasing across the area. This will help temps
climb into the upper 70s to around 80F by Tuesday. Wednesday will be
the warmest day of the extended portion of the forecast with daytime
highs topping out in the lower 80s. Morning lows Mon-Wed will rebound
as well, increasing from the middle 40s Monday morning to the middle
50s by Tuesday morning, finally landing in the upper 50s to around
60 degrees by Wednesday morning.

A few showers are possible by this point in the forecast, as both
sfc/upper ridging anchored E of the area allow for moisture return
from the GOMEX. This should help spark at least a few showers on the
Wrn periphery of the ridge, mainly affecting Nrn MS and NW AL. More
widespread rain and storms loom on the horizon, though, approaching
the area by Thursday/Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening before an
approaching system brings in lower CIGs and rainfall tonight.
Northwesterly winds will be ~10kts with slightly higher gusts this
afternoon before slacking after sunset. Lower VFR CIGs will arrive
with the light rain around midnight. CIGs will lower to 1-2kft as
rain becomes more widespread towards sunrise with 10kt easterly





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