291
FXUS62 KJAX 140451
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1251 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface trough over the Atlantic Coastal waters offshore of NE
FL/SE GA will continue to slowly drift southward Today and Tonight
and the northerly steering flow this morning will shift towards
the Northeast by this afternoon and tonight. With PWATs remaining
close to 2 inches, and the shift in steering flow, expect the East
Coast sea breeze to become more dominant and will press inland
with scattered showers and storms along the I-95 corridor by mid-
day, then becoming numerous to widespread as it presses westward
across inland NE FL/SE GA through the afternoon hours with the
main threat still heavy rainfall, but strong to isolated severe
storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph will be possible in the most
intense storms. Convection will weaken/fade after sunset as it
presses west of the local area. Max temps and peak heat indices
will be tricky once again, and will depend on the start of
convection along the East Coast sea breeze, and expect peak heat
indices in the 104-108F range and very close to heat advisory
criteria, but will hold off once again with issuance due to the
uncertainty of timing of afternoon convection, high rainfall
chances and enough cloud cover to suppress peak heat indices below
heat advisory levels. Max temps will range from around 90F at the
Atlantic beaches, to lower 90s along the I-95 corridor, to the
mid/upper 90s over inland NE FL/inland SE GA regions. Low temps
tonight still generally in the middle 70s inland and upper
70s/near 80F for the Atlantic Coast/Beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Area of low pressure will slowly move west southwest across
forecast area Tuesday morning, and into the northeastern Gulf in
the afternoon. This area of low pressure will continue to track to
the west Wednesday into Wednesday night, as high pressure builds
to the east northeast. Precipitation chances will be greatest
across NE FL this period, due to the location of the low track. A
few strong afternoon and evening thunderstorms each afternoon,
with localized flooding possible.

Temperatures will be near to a little above average this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

High pressure will be centered to the east of the region Thursday
and Friday, which ridge stretching over forecast area. The east
coast sea breeze will be active both days, so the best chance for
convection will be inland.

The high will move away to the east over the weekend, as a trough
develops across the southeastern US. A moist flow from the southwest
will yield above normal precipitation chances.

Temperatures will be above average this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR with leftover convective debris clouds at all TAF sites this
morning, then northeast winds will increase to 10-15 knots at
coastal TAF sites of SSI/SGJ/CRG and 5-10 knots at inland TAF
sites of JAX/VQQ/GNV. Timing of showers and storms will be in the
16-20Z time frame at the coastal TAF sites of CRG/SSI/SGJ, but
with only PROB30 groups expected, then shifting to 18-22Z time
frame at JAX/VQQ and 19-23Z time frame at GNV, along with higher
rainfall chances as the East coast sea breeze pushes inland, so
will upgrade these sites to TEMPO groups for gusty winds, MVFR
CIGS and possible IFR VSBYS with heavy rainfall chances. Rainfall
chances fade after sunset (00Z) and will leave VFR conds with
lingering clouds through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Troughing developing over the Gulf Stream waters this morning will
shift slowly westward this afternoon, crossing our local waters
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage
on Tuesday and Wednesday as troughing shifts westward across the
Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf, with low pressure
potentially organizing later in the week near the northern Gulf
coast. Prevailing northeasterly winds today will shift to
southerly by late Tuesday as troughing shifts west of our local
waters, with south-southeasterly winds briefly strengthening to
Caution levels near shore on Wednesday afternoon. Rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will continue through late in the week
as southerly winds prevail.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rips with surf/breakers of
1-2 ft today and Tuesday as flow slowly becomes more onshore and
increases towards the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  73  94  73 /  50  30  60  10
SSI  89  78  88  78 /  40  20  40  10
JAX  94  75  92  75 /  60  30  70  10
SGJ  91  75  87  75 /  50  30  70  20
GNV  95  72  92  72 /  90  40  80  20
OCF  95  72  90  73 /  90  50  90  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$