Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 190813
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
413 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

A cold front will slow to a crawl just north of the area today
and then eventually get a nice shove southward as strong high
pressure over the northern plains builds southeastward. The front
will accelerate southward across our forecast area this evening.
Forcing will be rather meager along the moisture-starved frontal
boundary, thus no measurable rainfall is expected.

Southwest flow ahead of the front should hang on long enough into
the afternoon to support a sneaky warm day today for locations
south and east of a line from Jesup to Valdosta. A few slivers of
stratus clouds this morning will need a few hours of April
sunshine to burn off, but we`re still anticipating enough late
morning and afternoon sun to push temps well into the 80s. The
southwest flow will be strong enough to prevent an Atlantic coast
seabreeze, so even the beaches will warm up quite a bit. The
warmest temperatures are expected along the I-95 corridor, and our
temperature forecast will reflect the warmest side of guidance,
with some upper 80s certainly possible.

Surface winds tonight will quickly veer to the northeast with
windy conditions expected to develop abruptly at the beaches
after midnight. Winds will approach wind advisory territory at
the beaches prior to sunrise on Friday with sustained northeast
winds increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 35 mph.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Friday...Strong High pressure ridge builds into the Carolinas with
a breezy inland/windy coast NE flow across the region. Skies will
be Mostly Sunny across SE GA while the onshore flow will continue
Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies across NE FL. Temps will be quite a
bit cooler with Highs about 20 degrees lower along the coast only
in the mid/upper 60s and into the lower/middle 70s over further
inland areas. The onshore flow may kick off a few light showers
along the coast south of St Augustine but rain chances still less
than 20% as the airmass remains fairly dry. The NE winds will
reach the 15-25G35 mph range at the coast and will be close to
Wind Advisory levels, with lesser winds around 15G25 mph further
inland.

Friday Night...Strong High pressure remains north of the region
with breezy E-NE flow at the coast at 15G25 mph and 5-10 mph
further inland. Mostly Clear skies will remain across SE GA with
lows in the upper 40s/near 50. Further south across NE FL expect
partly cloudy skies to continue with enough Atlc moisture to
produce a few light showers along the coast south of St
Augustine. Milder overnight lows in the 50s inland NE FL and near
60 along the coast in the onshore flow.

Saturday...High pressure over the Carolinas nudges slightly
offshore with Sfc winds becoming Easterly with SE steering flow
just above the surface. This will increase cloud cover through the
day with skies becoming partly cloudy SE GA and mostly cloudy NE
FL with chance of showers increasing slightly along the NE FL
coast. East winds 10-15G20-25 mph inland and 15-20G25-30 mph
along the coast. Highs nudge slightly milder, near 70 at the coast
and mid/upper 70s inland.

Saturday Night...Southeast Steering flow continues to increase
moisture and lift old frontal boundary northward up the FL
peninsula with Mostly Cloudy skies area-wide and at least widely
scattered showers possible area-wide after midnight. Cloud cover
keeps mild temps overnight in the upper 50s SE GA and lower/middle
60s NE FL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Sunday...Energy/lift assocd with approaching low pressure at the
surface/aloft along the North GOMEX will increase rain chances
through the day into Sunday Night with at least Numerous showers
and embedded storms expected with locally heavy rainfall as warm
front lifts into the region and energy gets focused along this
boundary. Highs likely only in the lower/middle 70s with lows in
the lower/middle 60s. The onshore flow will remain breezy/windy
along the coast.

Monday...Low tracks along the frontal boundary from the Panhandle
into South GA by Monday Night with a mid/upper level dry slot
punching in from the SW across the FL peninsula which will shift
the focus of the heavy rainfall northward into SE GA by Monday
Night. Storm total rainfall by Tuesday Morning expects to be at
least in the 1"-3" range with locally higher amounts, best chances
for heavy rainfall will be across SE GA and Atlc Coastal
counties. Numerous showers and embedded storms area-wide Monday
will become a bit more scattered Monday Night as mid/upper level
dry slot shifts into the region. Highs will be in the
lower/middle 70s, and lows in the 60s.

Tuesday/Wednesday...Confidence decreases in this period as low
pressure/cut off low over South GA should kick NE into the
Carolinas, but some ensemble members stall or move the low out
slower. For now advertising scattered showers/isolated storms on
Tuesday with drying conditions on Wednesday. Temps remain with
Highs in the 70s/Lows in the 50s. Heavy rainfall threat should
come to an end Monday Night with more light/moderate lingering
rainfall amounts on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected, but a brief period of IFR
ceilings in patches of low stratus will be possible through
sunrise this morning. Southwest winds will increase today and
become gusty. Winds will become northerly tonight behind a cold
front with some gusts possible, particularly along the coast
after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots through this evening then rapidly
changing conditions expected after midnight tonight as a strong
surge of northeast winds quickly pushes south across the waters.
Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots will gust up to around 35 knots at
times late tonight through Friday. Seas will build to as high as 6
to 9 feet across the offshore waters. Small craft advisories have
been hoisted for all southeast Georgia and northeast Florida
coastal waters.

On Saturday, winds will become more easterly and subside a
little, with speeds closer to 20 knots. Seas will remain elevated
and small craft advisory conditions will remain in place across
the offshore zones through the upcoming weekend. Winds/seas will
begin to increase again Sunday afternoon as a low pressure system
approaches from the west northwest. Headlines will need to be
extended through at least Monday night and this system will also
bring potential for storms and heavy rainfall.

Rip Currents: Low Risk Today and then High Risk likely on Friday
with strong onshore winds and building surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty west winds expected today at 15-20G30 mph but Humidities
should remain just above critical levels in the 30-40% range so no
headlines expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  48  72  46 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  85  57  65  56 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  88  58  69  54 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  86  63  69  60 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  85  57  74  55 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  84  59  76  57 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 3 AM EDT Monday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shuler/Hess/



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