Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 221036
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
636 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slowly moderating
temperatures through Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
rainfall arrives late Tuesday and continues into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EDT, under clear skies, temperatures are currently
ranging from the upper teens in the Adirondacks to the low 30s
in the Mid-Hudson valley. Fortunately, with strong April
sunshine, these temperatures are on track to reach the 50s and
lower 60s today. So no updates were made to the forecast at this
time. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.

Prev Disc...High pressure will remain over the region today
resulting in another sunny and seasonable day. Temperatures
should average a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with many
locations warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s, with lower
50s in the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another quiet and chilly night is in store as high pressure
remains centered over the forecast area, leading to strong
radiational cooling. Temperatures look to fall back into the 20s
and lower 30s, averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year.

High pressure will begin to shift east Monday night into
Tuesday as the next system approaches the area. This will bring
an increase in clouds throughout the day but should remain dry.
Increased southerly flow will usher in even warmer temperatures
by Tuesday afternoon with highs likely a few degrees warmer than
today, in the mid 60s. There could be a few isolated showers
late in the day, especially west of the the Capital District.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our recent tranquil weather will come to an end for the mid
week period.

Strong model consensus continues with southern Plains cut off low
slowly tracking east-northeast until strong short wave from Alberta
Canada arrives and assists with steering this system northeast. This
will spread clouds and periods of rain overnight Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  As moisture transport vectors will originate from the
Atlantic as v-component of the H850 wind magnitudes approach 2-3
standard deviations from the southeast.  While PWAT anomalies are
only about 1 standard deviation above normal, these southeast winds
suggests portions of the Catskills will have the potential to have
heavier rainfall amounts than the rest of the region.

As this system lifts northeast, surface low reflection is expected
along the mid-Atlantic coastline through Wednesday then become
nearly vertically stacked across New England Thursday.  This will
keep the threat for showers across most of the region.

A short wave ridge is forecast for the end of this week (Thursday
night into Friday) as we should have a mainly dry day.  However,
next upstream system is quickly approaching as we head into the last
weekend of April with a renewed threat for showers.

Temperatures through the period will likely average below normal
with precipitation at or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ideal flight conditions with VFR in the forecast through this TAF
forecast cycle. High pressure with a dry air mass with nearly clear
skies will continue through tonight.

Winds will be light and variable then be north-northwest during the
daylight hours Sunday around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Pds RA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slowly moderating
temperatures through Tuesday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 25 to 35 percent this
afternoon and Monday afternoon, and recover to 70 to 100 percent
tonight and Monday night.

Winds will will be variable at less than 15 mph through tonight,
then south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers and streams continue to slowly recede from heavier
rainfall earlier this week.

Dry weather is expected today through Tuesday with a moderating
trend in temperatures which will allow for some snowmelt in the
mountains. The next chance for widespread precipitation mainly
in the form of rain will arrive late Tuesday and continue
into Thursday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS/JVM
NEAR TERM...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JVM
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM


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