Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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621
FXUS62 KCAE 191754
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
154 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in tonight behind a cold front and
dominate the region through early Sunday. The next low pressure
system along with rain will arrive Sunday afternoon and remain
over the region into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front currently moving through the forecast area as winds
are shifting more west to northwesterly behind the front and
dewpoints have dropped into the 40s. Temperatures warmed up a
bit more than expected and have adjusted grids to account for
that but they should hold steady or drop a degree or two in the
western portion of the forecast area as cold advection ensues.

Lake wind advisory remains in effect til 7pm and a fire danger
statement is also in effect into this evening due to strong
winds and low RH values.

Tonight, high pressure will build into the region and winds will
relax a bit from how strong they were during the day but will
remain up through the evening around 10 to 15 mph before
subsiding further around 5 to 10 mph late tonight. Despite the
cold advection and some radiational cooling, the winds staying
up will prevent optimal radiational cooling conditions and think
that will be enough to prevent frost concerns as temperatures
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate the region through the short term
with mostly clear skies and winds considerably lighter than the
past couple of days. With northern winds continuing temperatures
will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s for daytime highs with
overnight lows Friday night in the low to mid 40s and mid 40s to
around 50 Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Synoptic situation will begin changing Sunday as low pressure
moves through the western Gulf States and into the forecast area
Sunday night. As Atlantic moisture overspreads the region Sunday
afternoon clouds and rain chances will return to the area. The
low pressure will slowly cross the region through Tuesday night
then eject northeastward away from the region on Wednesday. As
such have increases pops slightly with high chance to likely
pops from late Sunday through Tuesday night. With the clouds and
rain through much of the long term temperatures will be slightly
below to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period.

Front is crossing the region this afternoon and winds are
shifting to a more west to northwesterly direction. Speeds will
remain strong around 15 to 20 knots with gusts as high as 30
knots possible before winds subside with sunset and loss of
heating. Overnight winds will remain around 10 knots most
locations but then will pick up again shortly after sunrise
Friday with some gusts to 20 knots possible through the end of
the forecast period. Wind directions will shift to a
northeasterly direction after midnight. Wind and dry air
expected to preclude any fog/stratus concerns late tonight.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Dry air should preclude restrictions Fri/Sat. Increasing moisture
and chance of precipitation possible by late Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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