Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240007

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
707 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 344 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

This afternoon a warm front exist over the southwestern CWA and
south of the front temperature have crept up into the upper 60s.
Elsewhere across the CWA, easterly winds, cloud cover, and
occasional light showers have held temperatures in the 50s. This
evening a southwesterly LLJ will increase and over ride the warm
front. This will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop and with
weak instability available, there could be some small hail.
Overnight, a upper level shortwave moving across the central Plains
will force a cold front through the area continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances. The cold front will exit the area Saturday
morning however, shower chances will continue across the northern
CWA as the upper level shortwave moves through the region.
Temperatures will also be cool across the northern CWA tomorrow in
the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs in the 50s to the south.
Conditions will dry out briefly Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Conditions will quickly become active again Sunday and Monday as the
region will be under southwest flow aloft. Several lead shortwaves
will eject out from a main upper level digging through the Rockies.
This will allow for the chance for a few rounds of showers and
perhaps a few isolated storms through the period. On Monday night,
as a upper level low closes in the base of the upper trough over the
southwestern CONUS the northern extent of the trough will move into
the northern Plains. This will force a cold front into the area
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for heavy rain with these storms as PWATs are 200%-300%
above normal however, models have been showing the signal for heavy
precipitation south of the area. The slow moving cold front will
slowly exit the CWA on Tuesday afternoon bring shower chances to an
end. high pressure will build into the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday providing a period of dry conditions before another trough
brings a chance for precipitation on Thursday.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

Mid-level VFR ceilings will hold for the first few hours of the
TAF period. East/southeasterly winds will remain elevated ahead of
the approaching surface low. Through midnight, shower chances will
increase with VCTS possible at all sites. Ceilings are likely to
remain a challenge. Expect MVFR with IFR developing overnight,
before a return to MVFR, as precipitation chances end, and
potentially VFR by the end of the period.





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