Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
482 FXUS62 KKEY 140245 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 We have been receiving episodic showers and thunderstorms pretty much all afternoon and evening. Each event seemingly affecting a different part of the island chain each time. This latest batch that has developed within the last hour is occurring over the Middle Keys and over Sugarloaf Key and the Saddlebunches. It`s a case of same stuff different day. We have slightly less moisture than 24 hours ago but still quite a bit for the atmosphere to work with. Low level instability is lacking a little more than yesterday. We still don`t have any large scale lift across the region, hence our isolated and relatively short lived convection this evening. Looking upstream, we continue to monitor a shortwave moving southwest along the Eastern Seaboard. This feature is slowly heading towards the Florida Peninsula and will be interacting with a stationary frontal boundary draped across the Gulf coast states over the next couple of days. This feature will finally lend the large scale lift we have been lacking for appreciable rain. In the meantime, opted to make no changes to the going forecast and kept PoPs for tonight at 40% given the readily available moisture and there are plenty of boundaries to interact with on the meso scale. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Shower and thunderstorm coverage is forecast to gradually increase overnight as additional moisture is directed across the CWA. Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. Initially, the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col region resulting in mainly variable breezes through Monday night. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week. Also, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the early to middle part of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of any convection. Isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the overnight, initially favoring MTH and shifting west overnight into Monday morning. Light and variable winds will persist through the forecast period. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest