Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221502

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1102 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018


The surface ridge continues to slide southeast this morning, with
winds from northeast across the area. Forecast remains on track
for a clear, cool spring day.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The upper level trough axis will edge eastward today with the area
in deep-layer northwesterly flow. The surface high over the Lower
Mississippi Valley will slide east to Alabama. This will weaken the
pressure gradient and result in much less gusty conditions today
than the past two days. Temperatures will remain quite chilly for
late March. After morning lows in the mid to upper 30s inland (40s
coast), afternoon highs will only reach the mid to upper 60s, about
7-8 degrees below normal.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

In the upper levels a trough is over the Southeast until a ridge
builds in Friday night. At the surface high pressure will be over
the Southeast. By Saturday southerly flow will return as a low moves
eastward near IL/MO with a cold front extending through TX. Skies
will be mostly sunny/clear. POPs will be near zero. Lows will be in
the upper 30s and lower 40s on Thursday night. Lows will be in the
40s on Friday night. Highs will be near 70 on Friday. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Southeast. At the
surface a weak low will move through the Southeast on Sunday
dragging a slow moving cold front through the region. Weak high
pressure will move in on Monday. The best chance for rain will be
Sunday and Sunday night. POPs will be 15 to 30 percent for most
locations. Temps will be more seasonable with lows in the 50s and
highs in the 70s.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are forecast through the
period. Although we will see northwesterly wind gusts by mid
morning, they will not be as high as recent days.


Strong northerly winds will decrease slightly by this afternoon. The
Small Craft Advisory has been extended until late morning for the
waters east of Apalachicola.


RH will be dry enough to achieve red flag criteria today in Florida
and winds will be close. Fuel moisture is also in question with
recent heavy rains. Dispersion indices will be quite high. For these
reasons, burners are encouraged to exercise caution today. Friday
will not be quite as dry as today and winds will be much lighter.


Most local rivers are steady and below action stage. The next seven
days will be fairly dry with the best chance for rain on Sunday and
Sunday night. One tenth of an inch or less is forecast over the next
seven days.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   67  41  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   65  47  68  55  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        65  40  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  39  69  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  38  69  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    67  38  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  67  46  67  53  73 /   0   0   0   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Gulf.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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