047
FXUS63 KDVN 090547
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms (20-30%) that will be most favorable in the
  afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms Thursday night will
  have the potential to be stronger as a cold front moves into
  the area.

- Seasonal temperatures and humidity levels will continue
  through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A weak swirl in satellite imagery denoting a low in eastern Iowa
will slowly exit the area tonight. The weak low should be enough to
generate a round of diurnal showers and storms with the better
coverage east of the Mississippi.

Convection that develops will slowly dissipate with sunset and leave
the area dry overnight. The light winds and low level moisture will
result in a conducive environment for patchy fog to develop. Cloud
cover will the key as to where and how large the areal coverage of
any fog will be.

After a dry Wednesday morning, isolated diurnal convection is
expected to develop during the afternoon with dissipation shortly
after sunset. Areal coverage of the diurnal convection will be low,
10% at best, so a vast majority of the area is expected to remain
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Wednesday night/Thursday
Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on rain potential

Diurnal convection from Wednesday afternoon will dissipate after
sunset leaving much of Wednesday night dry. Internally, however, the
models are suggesting an organized storm complex developing in the
northern Plains that will move southeast through western and central
Iowa during the night. Although low, the potential is there for some
convection west of I-380/U.S. 218 toward sunrise Thursday. The model
consensus currently has a 20% chance of that occurring.

If convection does move into the area prior to sunrise Thursday,
which is dependent upon the timing of the decaying storm complex,
then areas generally south of an Independence, IA to Galva, IL line
would be favored for remnant isolated to scattered (20-35%)
convection during the morning.

Boundaries left over from the nocturnal convection will be the focus
for isolated to scattered (20-30%) diurnal convection Thursday
afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday night
Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence for showers and storms

Strong convection is forecast to develop along a cold front in the
Plains into western Iowa Thursday afternoon. This convection will
move into eastern Iowa after midnight and will be in a weakening
phase. While there is a risk of severe storms late Thursday night,
it is currently a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) with wind being
the primary risk.

The cold front will move through the area Friday into Friday
evening. Cloud cover will be a factor for the areal coverage on any
storms. Isolated to scattered (20-30%) coverage is expected Friday
morning from the decaying convection.

Boundaries from the overnight convection combined with the cold
front will develop a new round of storms Friday afternoon and
evening. Interestingly, CSU machine learning is depicting a severe
risk for Friday afternoon/evening for the area. The overall signal
is weak so it will be interesting to see how this will evolve over
the next few days. Given the weak signal, a potential marginal risk
(level 1 out of 5) may eventually be possible.

Saturday through Tuesday
Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence for showers and storms

Typical mid-summer heat and humidity will be seen across the area
Saturday through Tuesday with a daily risk of showers and storms.
The model consensus has a distinct diurnal nature to the pops with
areal coverage being 20-30% for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Generally a VFR TAF cycle through the period with light sfc
winds under a passing ridge of weak high pressure. Saying that,
the light winds and clearing skies may combine to produce areas
of fog toward morning, especially in the localized heavy
rainfall areas from yesterday. Will put in at least MVFR fog
for the sites, and there will be the potential for shallow dense
restrictions before dawn. Also, while most the area will stay
dry today, it will be another day with the chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm to pop up in the heating of the
day.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12