Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 251944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
244 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

18Z surface data has high pressure from the northern Great Lakes
into the southern Plains. Dew points were in the 30s from the Great
Lakes into the central and northern Plains. Dew points in the 40s
and 50s ran from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area from late
afternoon through Thursday as high pressure moves into the Great
Lakes. Lows will be in the 30s tonight with highs Thursday of 65
to 70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Mainly quiet weather will be seen through Monday. However, the
hemispheric flow pattern will be changing with southwest flow aloft
developing early next week. Net result is temperatures above normal
and the potential for precipitation to be above normal.

Thursday night through Saturday
Assessment...high confidence; medium confidence on rain chances
Friday afternoon

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Thursday night through
Saturday with the exception of Friday afternoon. Temperatures should
be close to normal.

Friday afternoon an upper level disturbance moves through the
western Great Lakes. This disturbance may generate rain showers east
of the Mississippi and north of I-80. The model consensus has slight
chance pops during this time period.

Saturday night on...

Saturday night through Monday Night
Assessment...high confidence

The quiet and dry conditions will continue Saturday night through
Monday as high pressure slowly moves through the Midwest. As
mentioned earlier, a pattern change with the flow aloft will result
in above normal temperatures on Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday
Assessment...low to medium confidence

Tuesday through Wednesday the models diverge somewhat on their
respective solutions. All agree that another cold front will be
moving through the area but differ on timing and overall sensible
weather details.

The front will be nearly parallel with the flow aloft so the forward
progress of the front will be slow. The slower movement of the front
means there will be time for moisture to get up into the area and
increase the potential for rainfall.

Right now the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday through Wednesday time


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions will be seen through 00z/27 as high pressure moves
through the Midwest.




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