Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 270004
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
704 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Partly to mostly cloudy conditions existed across the area this
afternoon as low level moisture remained behind a departing upper
level low now located across northern Alabama. Temps were
generally below average in the upper 50s to low 60s. An additional
shortwave trough was located to our northwest across
Nebraska/Kansas/Iowa. This trough will pass through Overnight with
no precipitation however some mid to high level clouds will
occur. Not much of a change of airmass behind the trough and
surface front with northwest winds persisting. Low temperatures
will generally drop into the middle 40s.

Friday will be a near average late April day with most places in
the upper 60s to around 70 with sunny skies. Dry air will mix down
and afternoon RH values will drop into the 30-35 percent range.
This combined with some 10-20 mph northwest winds will create an
elevated fire weather threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will drop south into the
Ohio River Valley Saturday and this will act to reinforce north
winds on Saturday. Skies will be clear and this will offset the
lowering thickness somewhat therefore highs on Saturday may be a
few degrees cooler than Friday.

High pressure will move across Illinois late Saturday night into
Sunday morning and will need to monitor temperatures trends during
this time. Temps may drop into the middle to upper 30s across the
Eastern Ozarks. Frost potential is uncertain given exact temps
and potential for winds turning to the southeast by Sunday
morning. Will monitor this potential in future forecasts.

Upper level ridge moves in for Sunday and Monday and temps will
respond nicely with most places in the 70s with increasing south
winds. A pattern change in the mid levels will also be occuring to
our west with a large upper level trough across the Western US.

Shortwave energy moves towards the area from the southwest late
Tuesday night. An increasing low level jet and moisture return
will allow for showers and thunderstorms in a baroclinic zone that
will develop very close to if not in our area from the Tuesday
night through Thursday time period. Moisture return looks
significant with several days of a wide open Gulf of Mexico with
dewpoints well into the 60s across the area. Will need to monitor
severe thunderstorm chances during this time as well given the
progged instability levels however details are still murky given
the messy pattern with numerous shortwaves moving through. If
repeated rounds of rainfall occur, then a few inches of rainfall
will also be possible in this type of synoptic pattern. Temps will
remain very mild during this timeframe as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The regions terminal can expect improving ceilings through this
evening and through the overnight hours. Cloud cover will begin
to lift and diminish with generally few to scattered high cloud
cover.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch



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