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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280531
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The forecast generally remains on track. Thus far, severe storms
have been confined to the far northwest part of our forecast
area, but that is about to change. Storms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity to our west, and these storms will move
into eastern Oklahoma within the next hour or so, with an all
hazard severe risk. A large QLCS will eventually evolve and sweep
across the entire forecast area overnight with damaging winds, a
few tornadoes, sporadic hail, and widespread heavy rainfall. Both
flash and river flood flooding will become a major concern heading
into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Have made only minor
changes to pops tonight, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for
severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease
in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of
thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop
along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the
evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes
and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in
time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the
watch area.

A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into
Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe
thunderstorms, mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Line of storms will sweep across the TAF sites over the next 6 to
9 hours, with deteriorating conditions expected along with strong
wind gusts. MVFR cigs will persist in the wake of the system thru
the morning with some spotty showers. Another round of storms may
develop during the afternoon and slide across the TAF sites,
especially NW AR where tempo groups will be used.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  55  80  58 /  80  10  10   0
FSM   77  61  82  60 / 100  50  10  10
MLC   76  60  82  63 /  90  10  10  10
BVO   77  51  78  55 /  70  10   0  10
FYV   74  57  80  59 /  90  50  10  10
BYV   73  57  78  56 / 100  60  10  10
MKO   74  58  79  59 /  90  10  10   0
MIO   73  54  76  56 /  90  30  10  10
F10   76  58  79  61 /  80  10  10  10
HHW   73  61  80  62 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30