Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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589
FXUS64 KFWD 270802
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
302 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

Another hot and mostly dry day is expected across North Texas
today as we remain pinned between troughing to the west and the
mid level trough associated with the subtropical storm over the
Gulf of Mexico. The ridge axis between the two systems will be
aligned just west of our area, but its associated subsidence
should keep skies mostly clear and precipitation free today. The
only exception may again be in our east and southeast counties
which may be far enough removed from the stronger subsidence to
allow for a few thunderstorms to move in from the east. Synoptic
scale flow around the system in the Gulf will keep an easterly
wind in place across the northern Gulf states and into East Texas
through this afternoon. Most of the guidance suggests that some
better low level moisture will spread westward into East Texas
later today. At least some isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop and these could move into some of our eastern
counties this afternoon. We`ll keep some 20 PoPs in to account
for this activity. Otherwise, it will be hot and dry elsewhere
with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Any convection this afternoon
will be diurnally supported and should quickly end with loss of
daytime heating leaving mostly clear skies behind tonight.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Memorial Day through next weekend/

Monday may end up being one of the "coolest" days of the upcoming
week as mid-level heights back off a bit in response to
Subtropical Storm Alberto`s approach from the east and an upper-
low ejecting out of the Great Basin to our northwest. Highs in the
low to mid 90s are expected across roughly the northeastern and
eastern third of the forecast area, with mid and upper 90s
elsewhere. Heat indices will top out around the century mark
with dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s.

As the aformentioned upper-low which has been spinning across the
Great Basin for the past few days finally begins to dislodge and
move northeast, convection is forecast to develop across the Texas
Panhandle Monday afternoon and evening as forcing for ascent
overspreads an unstable airmass. The latest indications are for
this activity to dwindle Monday evening as it spreads eastward
into a more inhibited and less unstable environment, but should
still manage to throw some increased high cloud cover across
North Texas into Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks dry and slightly
warmer than Monday, and--depending on how dewpoints respond to
afternoon mixing--heat indices may sporadically approach heat
advisory levels from I-35 and points west.

Another cluster of storms is expected to develop during peak
heating on Tuesday across northwestern Oklahoma and into Kansas
ahead of a surface low over the Texas Panhandle. Large surface-700
mb theta-e deficits and plentiful DCAPE could support quick cold
pool amalgamation during the evening hours as this complex
develops south and eastward. We`ll keep our northern row of
counties dry for the time being, but have added some silent 10-15%
PoPs towards daybreak Wednesday to account for any potential
southward storm development into 30-40 kt 925 mb flow which will
be present across North Texas.

The onslaught of several days of robust convection at the northern
terminus of the building ridge may ultimately help temper the push
of higher heights into the region during the middle and end of
next week. In fact, extended ensemble guidance has toned down high
temperature forecasts a bit Wednesday and into next weekend. We`ll
continue to closely follow the ensemble means at this point, and
have knocked high temperatures down a smidge from the previous
forecast. Still, temperatures will be near the century mark
through this period, with daily heat indices climbing to 100-105
degrees (locally higher in places).

Interestingly, extended model guidance shows a front sliding into
Oklahoma, and even into parts of North Texas, sometime this
weekend. With climatology arguing against such an occurrence,
this may be wishful thinking, but something we`ll keep an eye on
nonetheless.

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1120 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/
An upper ridge extending from the Plains into Southwest Texas
should keep things fairly quiet across North Texas for the rest of
the weekend. That said, we will need to keep an eye on any
convection which may develop to the east on Sunday as southwest
storm motion may allow a few storms to approach east gates of the
DFW TRACON late afternoon or evening. At this time, however, it
appears that activity will diminish before reaching any area
airports based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist with surface winds remaining out of the southeast at
5 to 10 KT.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  75  96  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                97  72  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               92  70  92  70  93 /   5   0   5   0   0
Denton              96  71  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            94  71  92  72  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              97  76  96  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             95  72  93  72  94 /   5   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           94  73  92  74  94 /  10   0   5   0   0
Temple              96  71  96  72  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       97  71  95  70  98 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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